SIGNING SHANE VICTORINO A MISTAKE - 美國職棒

http://tinyurl.com/cw38non

SIGNING SHANE VICTORINO A MISTAKE FOR RED SOX
by KIRK MINIHANE

Just because we live in a world where Shane Victorino can make $39 million
over three years doesn't mean it's OK to pay Shane Victorino $39 million over
three years.

Victorino拿的到39M/3yrs的約 不等於紅襪該跟他簽這個約

Maybe there is a long-term plan -- maybe this paves the way for trading
Jacoby Ellsbury for legitimate starting pitching (which, let us not forget,
is all that really matters) -- but as an individual baseball decision the
addition of Victorino at that price is a mistake, plain and simple.

或許這為紅襪開啟了交易Ellsbury換SP的機會

但單就棒球觀點 這筆約是個錯誤

Of the 144 major league players with enough plate appearances to qualify for
the batting title last season, Victorino ranked 116th in OPS and 121st in
slugging (that would be one spot ahead of Mike Aviles). I know we have been
told not to care about batting average anymore, but for those of you
dinosaurs who pay attention to that charming but antiquated statistic should
note that Victorino hit a career-worst .255 in 2012, 20 points below his
career average.

上季在打席數足夠的球員裡 Victorino的OPS僅排名116 SLG排名121(Aviles的前一名)

或許AVG不再是唯一重要的數據 但上一季他只打出生涯最差的.255

比生涯平均低了百分之2(生涯.275)

So for the second time in as many days it appears Ben Cherington -- with many
if not most of the local media only too happy to help with positive spin --
has overpaid for a player coming off of a lousy season. Isn't it supposed to
be the other way? Understanding there has been shifts and guys almost always
get paid more than they should, it still strikes me that Victorino should
come closer to a buy-low candidate than an clear and obvious overpay.

對我而言 Victorino應該是個逢低買進的標的 而不是overpay的對象

And it really shouldn't matter that the Cleveland Indians had already offered
Victorino $44 million over four years, as has been reported. Not a factor. If
that's an actual option for Victorino, you let him go to Cleveland and find
someone else.

就算笑臉人真的開了44M/4yrs的約 也不能改變39M/3yrs是overpay的

應該讓Victorino去CLE

I get the Napoli signing, I really do. I think it's too much money for a
player who has played 113 and 108 games the last two seasons (still would
like to know why Texas -- we all agree a pretty solid baseball organization,
right? -- declined on the $13.3 qualifying offer to Napoli while the Sox were
happy to triple it in both years and money) and is coming off of a 2012 line
of .227/.343/.812, but I recognize the upside.

我認同該簽Napoli 不過太貴了 前兩季他只分別出賽了113跟108場

TEX會連13.3M的qualifying offer都不給 不是沒有原因的

而我們在他低潮年後 給了他三倍的合約(雖然我也可以理解是出於他的upside)

Victorino is a platoon player. This is not written to be hyperbolic, to get a
rise, it is a statistical reality. And you'd think for $13 million a year you
would at least get a platoon player who excels against right-handed pitching.
That's not Victorino.

Victorino只是個platoon球員 這不是誇張的說法

就算要給一個platoon球員一年13M 也該給個擅長打右投的(面對右投手的機會較多)

In 2012 Victorino had a .229/.296./.333 line against righties. Now, to be
fair, that came in the worst season of his major league career (it's true --
Victorino landed a $39 million deal after posting the worst OBP, slugging and
batting average of his career, and we aren't exactly dealing with past
numbers that will be confused with Miguel Cabrera's). So let's go just a year
back to 2011. Victorino had a fine season, finishing with a slugging
percentage of .491 and an OPS of .847. Guess what? He was still just a little
better than average against righties -- slugged .455 with an OPS of .787 --
but destroyed lefties, an OPS of 1.032.

上個球季Victorino打右投只有.229/.296./.333

就算考慮到這三項數據都是他的生涯最低 有機會反彈

他表現很好的11年打右投也只有略高於平均的.787 OPS(打左投則是1.032)

For his career Victorino has 2.979 plate appearances against right-handed
pitching as a left-handed batter and his OPS is .732. In his last three
seasons -- which, again, includes 2011, maybe the best of his career -- he
has a .387 slugging percentage in 1,231 at-bats as a left-handed hitter (for
some frame of reference, Darnell McDonald has a career .394 slugging
percentage.) Victorino's struggles as a left-handed hitter were so profound
last season that at the end of the year the switch-hitter began to hit
right-handed against right-handed pitching. To some that might be a red flag,
for the Red Sox it's evidently still another reason to go above market value.

Victorino生涯2979個PA裡 用左打面對右投只有.732的OPS

過去三個球季 用左打面對右投也只有.387的SLG 麥當勞的.394都比他高

也導致他在上賽季的最後 被迫用右打來面對右投手

這對紅襪來說應該是一個警訊

And those other moves may happen this week. At some point Cherington will
have to get around to finding some reliable starting pitching. And I'm not
talking 38-year-old R.A. Dickey for the two best prospects in the
organization, but someone who fits in the middle of the rotation and is under
some club control contractually. Not an easy find, but an essential one. We
can talk all day about chicken and beer and Bobby Valentine and chemistry and
how much John Henry enables the players and all that stuff, but the Red Sox
were the best team in baseball in August 2011 and have been 30 games below
.500 since because of the starting pitching. If Cherington doesn't solve
that, Napoli and Victorino are meaningless.

這禮拜可能還會有些動作 Cherington必須找幾個可靠的SP

我不會拿兩個最好的新秀去換38歲的Dickey 但可以便宜用幾年的中段輪值倒是可考慮

8BV、啤酒炸雞都是原因，但紅襪從11年8月前全聯盟最好的球隊變成低於五成30場，

SP的無力絕對是最主要的問題 不解決這點 簽了Napoli跟Victorino也一樣

It's very early, but the returns on the Era of Discipline have been David
Ross, David Ortiz, Mike Napoli and Shane Victorino for about 110 million
bucks. Not a disaster, but is anyone really overwhelmed by that haul?

回到重視紀律的年代後 簽下David Ross、老爹、拿胖、Victorino不是不好，

但這些人還不足以撥亂反正

And Victorino is easily the worst of the four deals. American League batters
had a .731 OPS last season. Victorino has a career .732 OPS against
right-handed pitching. For roughly three-quarters of his at-bats Victorino is
by definition an average hitter. And for that he will be paid $13 million for
each of the next three seasons.

而Victorino的約是上面四筆裡面最糟的 生涯對右投只有.732的OPS

換言之 四分之三的打席他都只是個平均水準的打者

而他接下來三個球季都要領走13M

That may not qualify as undisciplined, but it's the worst move Ben Cherington
has made in his tenure as general manager of the Red Sox.

這可能是Cherington接手後最糟的一個動作

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這篇是WEEI另一個專欄作者寫的 可以跟前一篇對照正反觀點

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