Seven trades for Jacoby Ellsbury - 美國職棒

Seven trades for Jacoby Ellsbury
November, 9, 2012
By Jim Bowden | ESPN.com

It wasn’t long ago that outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury looked like the face of
the Boston Red Sox. His All-Star campaign in 2011 was highlighted by a .321
average, 32 home runs, 105 RBIs and 39 stolen bases. His five-tool prowess
had finally developed, and he looked firmly entrenched as Boston's center
fielder for years to come.

2011年Ellsbury的MVP級表現讓他看起來像是襪襪的臉

Only a season later, things have spun 180 degrees. Ellsbury slogged through
an injury-marred 2012 season, still managing to hit .271 in just 303 at-bats,
but that 2011 season now seems long ago. Further, Ellsbury is eligible for
free agency in a year and is represented by agent Scott Boras, who owns a
healthy track record of taking his clients to free agency to maximize their
financial opportunities.

一年後為傷所困的掙扎表現加上他的經紀人是Boras讓事情出現了180度大轉變

Considering that, it looks like the Red Sox have three options:
1.) Settle with Ellsbury on a one-year deal
2.) Take Ellsbury to arbitration, where he will make about $9.5 million on a
one-year contract
3.) Trade Ellsbury

三個選項：
1. 另外跟他簽一年約避免仲裁
2. 進仲裁，他可能拿到9.5M/y
3. 交易他

While Boston would love to sign Ellsbury to a long-term deal and keep him at
Fenway Park, they most likely will have no choice but to test the trade
waters to see what they can get for Ellsbury. With the Red Sox a couple
seasons away from contention, this move makes sense.

襪襪還需要一兩個球季才能競逐冠軍 現在測試Ellsbury的交易價值很合理

But first, Red Sox general manager Ben Cherington must identify the teams
that need a center fielder, would be willing to trade for a “rental” player
and could afford to add a $9.5 million player to its payroll.

首先必須先確認缺CF 願意且有能力花9.5M在打工仔身上的球隊

Because Ellsbury will be a one-year rental, Cherington probably knows he won’
t get equal return. However, he will start with a high asking price -- in
some cases unreasonable -- and negotiate downward. And the Red Sox could have
another shot at Ellsbury after the 2013 season since Boras will make certain
he reaches the free agent market.

因為是租借性質 價碼太高是沒可能的
Boras肯定會讓他進FA 有興趣的話13季末襪襪可以跟其他人一起標
以下是幾個可能的交易伙伴跟拿到的東西

Here are seven conversations Cherington should have with teams:
1. Atlanta Braves | trade targets: SS Nick Ahmed, RHP Julio Teheran
The first place to look is the NL East, where the Braves, Washington
Nationals and Philadelphia Phillies are all looking for short- and long-term
solutions for center field. The Braves are set at shortstop for years to come
with Andrelton Simmons, which makes Ahmed expendable. Ahmed, 22, was the
Braves’ second-round pick in the 2011 draft and had a solid year at high
Class A Lynchburg both offensively and defensively. He stole 40 bases.
Teheran remains the Braves’ top pitching prospect, and once his command and
control arrive, he should be a solid No. 2 or No. 3 starter for years to
come.

勇士：SS Nick Ahmed, RHP Julio Teheran

勇士、國民、費城都缺CF 而且13都放眼國東冠軍
勇士SS有Simmons做長期解答 11年第二輪的Nick Ahmed因而成為可交易的
22歲的Ahmed上個賽季在高階1A攻守兩端都有穩定的表現 盜了40個壘
（譯註：.269/.337/.391/.728）

Teheran一旦找回控球 在未來幾年都會是不錯的二三號

If the Red Sox could add Teheran to the young starters they acquired in the
blockbuster deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers last summer (Allen Webster and
Rubby De La Rosa), it would be a huge step forward in their retooling.
Ellsbury would take Bourn’s spot in center field and keep the Braves primed
for another postseason berth in 2013.

Teheran、Webster、De La Rosa會讓retool的腳步跨出一大步
Ellsbury則在13年能頂下Bourn離開留下的CF大洞

2. Los Angeles Angels | trade target: 1B C.J. Cron, OF Peter Bourjos
How about an Angels outfield of Mike Trout, Jacoby Ellsbury and Mark Trumbo,
with all three combined making less than Torii Hunter made in 2011? The Red
Sox would get their long-term solution to first base in Cron and a
middle-of-the-order bat that they can count on for years to come. Bourjos
would give them Gold Glove defense in center field, and perhaps his bat would
develop enough to eventually hit at the top of the lineup. Ellsbury for Cron
straight up might even be fair value.

天使：1B C.J. Cron, OF Peter Bourjos
天使可以補Hunter離開的外野空缺
襪襪拿到長期的一壘解答跟未來的中心棒次Cron
（譯註：今年22歲在高階1A 293/.327/.516/.843，不過是CALL聯盟的數據）
加上金手套中外野Bourjos 他仍然有可能長成前兩棒
不過Ellsbury單換Cron似乎比較公平

3. Los Angeles Dodgers | trade target: OF Andre Ethier
This deal would give the Red Sox cost certainty and their long-term right
fielder, as Ethier just signed a six-year $95.5 million deal through 2017
with a vesting option for 2018. The Red Sox have top center field prospect
Jackie Bradley Jr. waiting in the wings to eventually take over the position
long term. The Dodgers would then have an outfield of Matt Kemp, Ellsbury and
Carl Crawford. When healthy, it would be the best in the National League with
an incredible combination of speed and power. More importantly, the Dodgers
would have their leadoff hitter.

道奇： OF Andre Ethier

襪襪拿到一個長期的RF解答 CF等Jackie Bradley Jr上來補
道奇組成Kemp, Ellsbury, CC的三CF外野 兼具速度跟力量
重點是 道奇獲得了他們的第一棒

4. St. Louis Cardinals | trade targets: RHP Trevor Rosenthal, OF Jon Jay
Rosenthal has ability and potential to be a Craig Kimbrel or Aroldis
Chapman-type closer right now, and Jay could take over in center field in
Boston. The Red Sox should stop dreaming about Andrew Bailey, Daniel Bard and
Alfredo Aceves taking care of the final three outs of the game. Rosenthal can
do that now with his 100-mph fastball. Odds are this discussion goes no
further than the phone call, as the Cardinals love Rosenthal (who they might
also try as a starter) and seem happy with Jay.

紅雀：RHP Trevor Rosenthal, OF Jon Jay

Rosenthal現在就有能力成為Kimbrel或Chapman那種CL Jay可以頂上襪襪的CF
襪襪該停止對Bailey, Bard, Aceves的幻想 Rosenthal可以用100mph的火球關好門

不過紅雀沒有做這交易的理由 他們缺的是SP

5. San Francisco Giants | trade targets: OF Gary Brown, RHP Heath Hembree
The Giants have a chance to win three World Series in four seasons, and
Ellsbury would help that cause immensely. He would give them a dynamite
leadoff hitter and table-setter for Pablo Sandoval, Buster Posey and Hunter
Pence in the middle. He’ll be able to run down balls in center field and
will give them the additional power they have lacked. Brown is supposed to be
their leadoff hitter of the future, but if they were willing to trade top
pitching prospect Zach Wheeler for Carlos Beltran, they should consider this
deal, too. The Red Sox should also ask for Hembree because he throws in the
high 90s, and if his command in the zone ever arrives, he could be a
candidate to be Boston's closer down the line.

巨人：OF Gary Brown, RHP Heath Hembree

Ellsbury能大幅提升他們在四年內拿下三座WS的機率 Brown是未來的第一棒
（譯註：Brown 今年23歲在2A .279/.347/.385/.731）

但如果巨人願意拿Wheeler去換打工的Beltran 他們也應該考慮這交易
Hembree找的到好球帶的話 有機會成為襪襪的CL
（譯註：今年23歲 在PCL WHIP 1.289 K/BB 36/20）

6. Seattle Mariners | trade target: RHP Taijuan Walker
The Mariners have had the worst offense in the American League for three
straight seasons, and they have approximately $30 million dollars to spend.
Do they trade one of their top pitching prospects for offense as they did
last year when they shipped Michael Pineda to the New York Yankees for
catcher Jesus Montero? The Red Sox should ask for Walker, but my gut says
Cherington would get a polite “no, thank you” from Mariners GM Jack
Zdurinecik, who will then counter with an offer of one of lefties James
Paxton or Danny Hultzen. If that happens, the Red Sox certainly should
consider it.

水手：RHP Taijuan Walker

水手連三年都是AL最爛打線 今年有30M可花
去年做了一筆拿投手換打擊的交易

襪襪會想要Walker 不過一下就會被打槍
如果有機會拿到Paxton或Hultzen 襪襪應該好好考慮
（譯註：上述三個是水手前三投手新秀 今年都在全聯盟TOP 100內）

7. Washington Nationals | trade targets: OF Brian Goodwin and RHP Alex Meyer
Goodwin has been wowing scouts in the Arizona Fall League with his range,
defense and bat. Meyer was very impressive in his pro debut last season in
A-ball, where he went a combined 10-6 with a 2.86 ERA in 25 starts. Meyer was
the Nationals’ first-round choice in 2011, and the Red Sox have been
following him closely since they selected him the 20th round of the 2008
draft but weren’t able to sign him. Ellsbury would allow the Nationals to
put Bryce Harper in one of the corners with Jayson Werth. A deal of this
magnitude would put them among the NL’s early favorites to reach the World
Series.

國民：OF Brian Goodwin and RHP Alex Meyer
Goodwin在AFL攻守兩端都讓球探驚艷
11年第一輪Meyer第一個職業球季25場先發 繳出10-6 2.86ERA
襪襪曾經在08年第二十輪選過他 不過沒能簽下
Werth, Ellsbury, Harper的外野可以讓國民成為進入WS的大熱門

In the end, it’s doubtful any of these trade discussions will end up in a
deal. The most likely scenario is Ellsbury ends up with a one-year deal at
$9.5 million, and the Red Sox will revisit the trade market for him at next
July’s trade deadline. That said, perhaps then we’ll revisit these trade
discussions again when the probability of one of them happening will have
increased significantly.

基本上上述提案都不大可能發生 就算發生也比較有可能在七月季中交易

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個人覺得Ellsbury不大可能被交易 因為我們外野已經空了兩個位置了

如果打算從FA灑錢簽人 那更沒道理為了省錢交易Ellsbury換新秀

除非是像天使或紅雀的那個提案 可以馬上補洞

但我看不出他們有做這交易的理由


至於換Ethier......

如果要灑那麼多錢給一個被左殺防守又在平均以下的

那不如直接在FA市場上灑就好

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