Fangraphs Red Sox Top 15 Prospects (2012-13) - 美國職棒

Fangraphs Red Sox Top 15 Prospects (2012-13)

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The Boston Red Sox organization boasts both high-ceiling talent and depth
within the system although a number of prospects are coming off of tough
seasons. The 2013 season could be a key turning point for the club as those
young players look to add a little more shine back to their prospect status.


#1 Xander Bogaerts (SS)

Age PA H 2B HR BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG wOBA
19 531 146 37 20 44 106 5 .307 .374 .524 .398
Opening Day Age: 20
2012 Level: A+/AA
Acquired: 2009 international FA
Projected 2013 Level: AA/MLB

Bogaerts is an exciting prospect who is just beginning to get the attention
he deserves from the non-Boston crowd. One of the best hitting prospects in
the minors, the native of Aruba played the 2012 season at the age of 19 and
reached double-A. He has an advanced hitting approach and generates
outstanding power despite having a slender frame with tons of projection
remaining. His pop comes from above-average bat speed.

Bogaerts had immediate success at double-A – albeit in a small sample of 23
games – but his approach deteriorated with his walk rate dropping from 9.9%
in high-A to 1.0%. He’ll need to be more patient against the advanced
pitching in an effort to get the best pitches to drive. A contact I spoke
with said Bogaerts has a number of things working in his favor as a hitter,
including pitch recognition, consistency, and the potential for plate
discipline. He said the young player “gets pull happy and expands the zone a
bit” and needs to focus on taking the ball back up the middle; he doesn’t
need to pull the ball to hit it with authority.

When I saw him play in A-ball, Bogaerts looked extremely confident despite
his inexperience and age. He was watching balls into the catcher’s mitt and
taking lots of pitches. I was also impressed by his quiet batting stance and
easy-to-repeat hitting mechanics.

The big question with Bogaerts is his future defensive home. Currently a
shortstop, there are concerns that the 6’3” infielder could eventually get
too big for the position. The contact I spoke with, though, thinks he’ll
remain at his current position stating that the prospect has made
“impressive fundamental improvements.” He added that Bogaerts possesses a
strong arm good range and athleticism.

Now 20, the top prospect in the system could spent the entire season
playingin the upper tiers ofthe minor leaguers but could also receivea brief
cup of coffee in the majors at the end of the year. Bogaerts has excellent
make-up and baseball intellect and should continue to excel despite the
mounting attention and pressures of being a future corner stone of the
franchise. The contact stated, “He has a good time playing the game and
hasn’t been fazed by anything.”

Additional Notes

Early in 2011, Chris Mellen of Sox Prospects mentioned Xander Bogaerts in
passing as a player to look out for once he arrived in Greenville. Little did
I know Bogaerts would present as one of the best prospects I’ve scouted in
person. At best, the Red Sox have an elite offensive force at the shortstop
position. A more likely scenario is for Bogaerts to slide to a corner where
his ceiling is that of a perennial All-Star. (Mike Newman)


#2 Matt Barnes (P)
Age G GS IP H HR K/9 BB/9 ERA FIP
22 25 25 119.2 97 6 10.00 2.18 2.86 2.58
Opening Day Age: 22
2012 Level: A/A+
Acquired: 2011 draft (19th overall)
Projected 2013 Level: AA/AAA

Selected 19th overall in 2011 in a draft that also added fellow Top 15 prospects
Blake Swihart, Henry Owens, Jackie Bradley and Mookie Betts into the system,
Barnes dominated A-ball last season and showed continued improvements as a
professional. The right-hander’s repertoire includes an above-average fastball
that works in the 92-95 mph range and can touch the upper 90s. A contact I
spoke with said Barnes needs to improve his fastball command, but it shows an
impressive combination of velocity and life.

The prospect also has a curveball that currently flashes above-average and has
the potential to be a plus pitch. The key for Barnes, I’m told, is to focus
on improving his changeup in an effort to round out his repertoire. The
baseball contact I spoke with said the pitcher learned a valuable lesson in
2012 when it came to the importance of the off-speed pitch. “Later in the
year when he wasn’t able to rely on the fastball [due too inconsistent
command], the changeup became an important weapon for him.”

When I watched Barnes pitch, I was impressed with how quickly he worked. He
had an easy delivery and threw a lot of strikes, going right after the
hitters. Despite his size, it appears as though he has more room to fill out
and add strength to his frame. Barnes should open 2013 in double-A and could
reach the majors in the second half of the season. He has the ceiling of a
No. 2 starter and should reach it with continued polish and confidence in his
abilities.


#3 Jackie Bradley (OF)
Age PA H 2B HR BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG wOBA
22 576 147 42 9 87 89 23 .317 .431 .483 .411
Opening Day Age: 22
2012 Level: A+/AA
Acquired: 2011 draft (40th overall)
Projected 2013 Level: AA/AAA/MLB

Bradley entered his junior year of college as a potential first round pick
but he struggled offensively and ended up having surgery on an injured wrist.
Boston wisely nabbed him with the 40th overall selection in the supplemental
first round and he’s produced outstanding offensive numbers since turning pro.

The left-handed hitting outfielder reached double-A in his first full season
after dominting high-A ball where he posted a 180 wRC+ in 67 games. His
batting average dipped below .300 in double-A but he still produced a solid
line, showing line-drive pop, a solid feel for the strike zone and held his
own against southpaws. He’s not a base stealer but Bradley has some guile on
the base paths. Defensively, he has the potential to be a plus defender
thanks to his range, arm and instincts. As a talent evaluator stated, “Jackie
is an impact defender with uncanny ability to get to the baseball.”

Bradley could open 2013 back in double-A but he should also see significant
time in triple-A. He could be ready to assume a full-time position in a big
league outfield by 2014. Depending on what happens with Jacoby Ellsbury,
Bradley could be Boston’s center- or left-fielder of the future. His skill
set could make him a solid No. 2 hitter in the line-up.


#4 Allen Webster (P)
Age G GS IP H HR K/9 BB/9 ERA FIP
22 29 24 130.2 133 2 8.89 4.20 3.86 3.26
Opening Day Age: 23
2012 Level: AA
Acquired: 2012 trade (from Dodgers)
Projected 2013 Level: AAA/MLB

After making just two starts after coming over from the Los Angeles Dodgers
last summer during the blockbuster trade involving Josh Beckett, Adrian
Gonzalez and Carl Crawford, Boston still doesn’t know exactly what they have
with Webster, but they’re intrigued. A talent evaluator was impressed with
what he saw in a small sample size after the trade, “The pure stuff is
impressive… the fastball was consistently in the mid-90s… He has significant
upside.”

That same contact stated that Webster flashed a plus breaking ball. He said
the young pitcher needs to be more aggressive and attack hitters with his
fastball, if he hopes to dominated as much as his stuff indicates he should.
When he’s on, the right-hander produces a lot of ground-ball outs thanks to
natural sinking action. Although Webster did not showcase his changeup much
after switching organizations, the contact I spoke with felt the hurler could
still stick in the starting rotation with the three pitches he currently
utilizes but that improved command and control are both needed.

Webster spent the 2012 season – split between two organizations – at the
double-A level and should be ready for an assignment to triple-A. He’s
probably three to six months of seasoning away from contributing at the big
league level. The North Carolina native has the ceiling of a No. 2 or 3
starter; if his command and control do not improve enough, though, he could
perhaps develop into a dominating high-leverage reliever.

Additional Notes

On two separate occasions, Webster was as good as any pitching prospect I’ve
seen for four innings. Then, the wheels fell off as the tired and quickly
lost velocity. At his best, Webster’s fastball was 94-96 MPH, touching 98.
He also throws a slider, curveball and changeup which vary in effectiveness
depending on the outing. If the Red Sox can help Webster fill out his frame,
they have a mid-rotation starter. If not, then the potential is there for him
to become a shut down reliever. (Mike Newman)


#5 Garin Cecchini (3B)
Age PA H 2B HR BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG wOBA
21 526 139 38 4 61 90 51 .305 .394 .433 .380
Opening Day Age: 21
2012 Level: A
Acquired: 2010 draft (4th round)
Projected 2013 Level: A+/AA

On the surface, Cecchini is a very interesting prospect. He’s a solid hitter
with a good idea of the strike zone and decent pitch recognition. He also
possesses good bat speed and will take a walk. Unfortunately, he doesn’t
possess the power teams look for from a third baseman (.127 isolate slugging
rate in 2012) and the Red Sox organization has a plethora of hot corner
options, including big league incumbent Will Middlebrooks and current
shortstop prospect Xander Bogaerts.

Cecchini stole more than 50 bases in 2012 but he has modest speed and excels
due to strong base running instincts. A contact I spoke with said Cecchini is
one of the best base runners in the system and is also one of the most
advanced hitters. He said the prospect could eventually develop average or
better power. “His [current] approach is up the middle and the other way…
As he moves up… we’ll see those [power numbers] improve.”

When asked about his defense, the talent evaluator I spoke with said Cecchini
needs to improve at third base but he has the arm strength for the position.
The contact said he needs to work on his agility and his range going side to
side “but he’s definitely shown the ability to stay there.”

When I watched Cecchini play I was quite taken with his abilities at third
base. He made a couple of nice running plays – one coming in and one going
to his right -on tough ground balls. At the plate, I noticed that he had a
wide, well-balanced base with slightly bent knees. He wasn’t afraid to go
the other way and took the pitch where it was thrown, not trying to do too
much. His swing mechanics were a little inconsistent with a longer swing
during his first at-bat before becoming much quicker to the ball as the game
progressed. He didn’t always swing atthe best pitches.

Cecchini will open 2013 in high-A ball and should be ready for the majors
around late 2014 or 2015. Left-handed hitters with the ability to hit for a
high average are often in demand, whether as a big league regular or part-time
contributor. The development of his power tool will be key in determining his
future role.

Additional Notes

Cecchini is a bit of a tweener whose statistical line was more impressive
than his tools on the field. His 50+ steals are simply not sustainable at the
higher levels and I question whether he has more than 10-12 home runs in his
bat. However, .285/.350/.425 with average defense is still a three win player
at the Major League level. (Mike Newman)


#6 Henry Owens (P)
Age G GS IP H HR K/9 BB/9 ERA FIP
19 23 22 101.2 100 10 11.51 4.16 4.87 3.49
Opening Day Age: 20
2012 Level: A
Acquired: 2011 draft (36th overall)
Projected 2013 Level: A+

The 36th overall selection during the 2011 amateur draft, Owens did not
officially pick up a baseball until 2012 when the organization gave the
19-year-old hurler an aggressive assignment to full-season A-ball. The
southpaw responded with a solid season that included 130 strikeouts in 101.2
innings of work.

Owens, now 20, showed signs of tiring late in the year and elevated the ball
a lot in August, resulting in very high fly-ball rates — although the 6’6”
lefty was always more of a fly-ball pitcher. He needs to learn to leverage
his height and get a better downward angle on his pitches to induce more
ground-ball outs.

I watched Owens pitch in late August and he had a tendency to fall forward
early in his delivery, dragging his arm behind him. He has a cross-fire
motion with a low 3/4 arm slot, both of which help add deception to his
delivery. I was a little surprised with the lack of life on his fastball.
Owens threw heaters almost exclusively until the second inning when the
opponents jumped all over him.

He got much better when he started mixing in all three of his pitches. He
showed a good, but inconsistent, curveball, and a potentially-plus changeup
that he used to strike out some hitters. The fastball command, which was also
inconsistent – especially on the arm side – is key for helping him set up
the change of pace.

A contact I spoke with said Owens has a chance to be a top-to-mid-rotation
starter with further development. “He has a three-pitch mix with a deceptive
fastball – up to 94 mph this year – a plus changeup, and a future
above-average curveball… He needs to get stronger and that will help him
maintain his delivery, command and quality. He is left handed with a very
advanced feel for pitching, changing speeds and attacking hitters.”

Additional Notes

Having seen Owens’ final start of the 2012 season, it’s safe to say he was
not at his best. The left-hander I did see was 91-93 MPH, touching 94 with an
upper-60s curveball and changeup. While I was impressed with his fastball
movement and late breaking curveball, it’s impossible to not wonder if such
a slow off-speed pitch is a legitimate offering or trickery. (Mike Newman)


#7 Blake Swihart (C/DH)
Age PA H 2B HR BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG wOBA
20 378 90 17 7 26 68 5 .262 .307 .395 .318
Opening Day Age: 21
2012 Level: A
Acquired: 2011 draft (26th overall)
Projected 2013 Level: A+

Switch-hitting catchers with above-average offensive abilities are rare, which
helped make Swihart desirable as the 26th overall selection of the 2011 draft
out of a New Mexico high school. A $2.5 million contract prevented the athletic
backstop from following through on his commitment to the University of Texas.

Swihart’s calling card probably will always be his offense. A contact said,
“He is athletic with fast hands and good hand-eye. He’s better when he tries
to work through the middle of the field with line drives… He has more
line-drive than loft in his swing but some of those line drives will carry
the wall.” A future projection of 10-12 home runs and 30-plus doubles was
given.

Like all young hitting prospects, Swihart still has work to do at the plate.
“He needs to work on his pitch selectivity and let the ball travel more,”
the talent evaluator said. “His swing consistency from both sides is a
work-in-progress.

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