A LOOK AT THE SHANE VICTORINO DEAL - 美國職棒

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NEW MARKET REALITY:
A LOOK AT THE SHANE VICTORINO DEAL AND HOW IT FITS RED SOX’PLANS

By Alex Speier

NASHVILLE, Tenn. — The Red Sox wanted a right fielder with the legitimate
defensive range to play center for a few reasons. First, the team wants
someone with the ability to handle Fenway Park’s expansive piece of right
field real estate. Secondly, the team wants to have roster depth and
flexibility to feature a solid backup plan should Jacoby Ellsbury be
unavailable at any point in 2013 or for Jackie Bradley Jr. come 2014. And, if
the team either trades Ellsbury this year or if Bradley — contrary to
expectations for his development path — isn’t big league ready by the start
of 2014, the team needs a fallback option in center, while also getting a
player who can fill the vacancy that exists in right field in 2013 and,
depending on the pace of Bryce Brentz‘s development, perhaps 2014 as well.

簽下一個守備範圍大到可以守CF的右外野手有幾個理由
1. 芬威廣大的右外野
2. 提供Ellsbury受傷或被交易時的保險
3. 在Jackie Bradley Jr.上來前頂住CF
4. 可以視Bryce Brentz的發展情形決定如何處理Ellsbury

Enter Shane Victorino.

According to a major league source, the Red Sox reached a three-year
agreement. Reports peg the value of the deal at $39 million ($13 million a
year) for the outfielder, who just turned 32 in the past week. Victorino
projects, according to another source, to be the everyday right fielder for
the Sox while also providing the center field protection that the team needs.
The deal isn’t yet final, as he needs to take a physical for it to become
official.

Victorino，32歲的外野手，
39M/3yrs的合約等體檢後才正式生效。
這張合約將cover他的32-34歲

The contract might seem like a steep cost of admission for a player who is
coming off the worst season of his career. Victorino hit .255/.321/.383/.704
with 11 homers and 39 steals in 45 attempts for the Phillies and (after a
mid-year trade) Dodgers in 2012. Those marks were down considerably from a
career line of .275/.341/.430/.770.

在他打出生涯最差的一季(.255/.321/.383)後 這張約看起來有點貴

The Sox are hopeful that he can bounce back closer to career norms. But even
if he doesn’t, his defense and speed on the bases give him value even if the
2012 season represented something other than an aberration. Moreover, he does
not cost the Red Sox a draft pick, as he was ineligible for a one-year
qualifying offer from the Dodgers after having been traded mid-year.

但他生涯有.275/.341/.430的三圍
而且簽他不用賠選秀權

While Victorino is a switch-hitter and thus, in theory, could give the Sox
some left-right lineup balance, he struggled badly against right-handed
pitchers in 2012 (hitting .229/.296/.333/.629 against righties, and
eventually trying to bat right-handed against right-handed pitchers),
compared to excellent marks against lefties (.323/.388/.518/.906). That is in
keeping with Victorino’s career trends. Against lefties, he’s a career
.301/.373/.508/.881 hitter, while against righties, he has a
.267/.330/.402/.732 line.

理論上他是個左右開弓 但是右打比較好(.301/.373/.508)

“There are no perfect players,” observed one team source.

That being the case, the Sox wanted to continue an offseason that has seen
them address most of their needs without sacrificing their future. The team
has added two outfielders (Victorino, Jonny Gomes), a first baseman (and
potentially catcher) in Mike Napoli and another catcher in David Ross without
sacrificing any prospects or draft picks. That, in turn, follows GM Ben
Cherington‘s stated desire to build a strong team for 2013 without
compromising the team’s long-term outlook for 2014 and beyond.

紅襪想要在不犧牲未來的前提下補洞
季末已經補了2個OF(Victorino, Jonny Gomes)、1個1B跟代班C(Napoli)
而沒有賠掉任何選秀權 讓我們不用在13年的成績與未來間妥協

But what of the cost of Victorino’s deal? Line up the top center fielders
who have signed this offseason and it doesn’t necessarily look so out of
place:

到底Victorino貴不貴？看看以下幾筆

B.J. Upton, Braves
Cost: 5 years, $75 million and a draft pick.
Age during contract: 28-32
2012: .246/.298/.454/.752, 28 HR, 31 SB
Career: .255/.336/.422/.758, 20 HR (162-game avg), 39 SB (162-game avg)

Angel Pagan, Giants
Cost: 4 years, $40 million
Age during contract: 31-34
2012: .288/.338/.440/.778, 8 HR, 29 SB
Career: .281/.333/.424/.757, 10 HR (162-game avg), 29 SB (162-game avg)

Shane Victorino, Red Sox
Cost: 3 years, $38 million
Age during contract: 32-34
2012: .255/.321/.383/.704, 11 HR, 39 SB
Career: .275/.341/.430/.770, 14 HR (162-game avg), 30 SB (162-game avg)

So, Victorino cost slightly more per year than Pagan, but he comes off the
books sooner — falling into the Sox’ blueprint of acquiring players on
shorter-term deals. He also costs less per year and required fewer years than
Upton — and he didn’t require the sacrifice of a draft pick.

平均年薪比Pagan貴，但年限少了一年－符合目前簽短約的建軍哲學
平均年薪跟年限都比Upton哥短，而且不用賠選秀權

Again, it seems expensive, but center fielders are very rarely available on
the free agent market. In the previous four offseasons, the most notable
center fielders to move in free agency were Coco Crisp, Mike Cameron, Marlon
Byrd and Willy Taveras. If the Sox wanted a player capable of being a center
fielder, they were going to have to pay a premium to land him.

看起來有點貴，不過市場上CF難尋
過去四個球季市場上的CF只有Coco、Cameron、Marlon Byrd、Willy Taveras
（註：現在市場上剩下的純CF只有Michael Bourn，預計要價80M/5yrs以上）

Still, signing Victorino shouldn’t prevent the Sox from other moves. Between
the departures of Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, Josh Beckett and Nick Punto
in the Dodgers blockbuster, and the departures since last year of Daisuke
Matsuzaka, Kevin Youkilis, Bobby Jenks and others, the team had more than
$100 million come off its books.

簽下Victorino不影響其他繼續進行的動作
跟道奇的大交易加上季末到期約，清出了100M以上的空間

To date, while the Sox have re-signed David Ortiz for a lower average annual
value (AAV) than he played under last year, the team has spent approximately
$34 million in terms of AAV on four free agents (Victorino, Gomez, Napoli,
Ross). In other words, the team still has plenty of remaining flexibility
beyond what it has spent to this point.

換言之，球隊還有錢可花

So far, all of the Sox’ moves have addressed areas of need. They haven’t
prevented the team from being able to address other areas (starting pitcher,
perhaps a shortstop, bench depth), and they haven’t cost the team either
prospects or draft picks. In that context, so far, everything is proceeding
according to a fairly well-defined blueprint.

目前為止的動作補上了一些洞，接下來就是處理SP、可能的SS昇級、板凳深度，
一切都按照一個良好的計畫進行中。



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