洋基可考慮交易來的先發-以及其代價 - 美國職棒

翻譯Joel Sherman的文章：

At the press conference Monday to introduce Giancarlo Stanton, Yankees officia
ls already were not only talking about what’s next, but working toward acquir
ing it. This is the organizational DNA: When the Yanks sense they can win, the
y increase their aggression.

在迎接PR99的記者會當天
洋基不僅僅是在討論下一步該怎麼做了
而是已經正在著手進行
真就是洋基的靈魂：
當洋基知道他們可以贏得比賽
他們就會增加他們的侵略性

The goal now is to add a starter or starters while staying under the $197 mill
ion luxury-tax threshold, which became easier to do Tuesday when the Yankees t
raded Chase Headley and his $13 million contract to the Padres along with Brya
n Mitchell for Jabari Blash in what amounted to a salary dump.

洋基的目標很簡單：
在補1～2位先發的同時把薪資壓在197M以下
而這一切在Headley交易案後似乎比較容易了
把Headley&Mitchell送去教士
純粹只是為了丟掉那13M的薪資

In their ideal scenario, the Yankees would obtain a starter in the trade marke
t who is due less than $10 million — perhaps shedding a player who makes some
money in the deal to make falling under the threshold easier — and then re-s
ign CC Sabathia for something in the $10 million range.

在洋基理想的狀況下
他們希望在交易市場找到薪資小於10M的SP
甚至是在交易中搭上其它球員壓低薪資
然後在這情況下與CC簽平均10M左右的合約

Let’s say that acquired starter is Pittsburgh’s Gerrit Cole, which would giv
e the Yanks him, Sabathia, Sonny Gray, Jordan Montgomery, Luis Severino and Ma
sahiro Tanaka, with prospects Albert Abreu, Chance Adams and Justus Sheffield
getting close to the majors. That would provide the Yankees a strong, deep rot
ation to go along with a top lineup that now has Stanton plus one of the game
’s best bullpens.

假設交易來的SP是Gerrit Cole好了
這樣SP就有Cole、CC、Gray、芒果、Sevy、還有馬君
小檸檬還有Abreu、Adams、Sheffield待命
如此一來洋基就算是有一個完整的先發輪值了
還不提加入了PR99的打線和固若金湯的鐵牛

So here are some thoughts on where I think the Yankees are looking and what it
might cost to find that starter on the trade market:

以下是個人（Joel）認為洋基該試圖交易的SP以及其相對應的交易提案：

1. Cole: The Yankees have done plenty of deals with the Pirates, even while fi
nding it difficult to find common ground. But there already is a framework for
this deal. Cole and Gray came up the same year (2013), they both are free age
nts after the 2019 campaign and they have somewhat similar track records.

1. Cole： 洋基和海盜之間做過許多交易、即便這筆交易距離成型還很遠。但是至少有一
個大致的框架可以參考。Cole和Gray都是13年上大檸檬的，2019年後會成為FA，更重要的
是兩人成績相去不遠。

Last July the Yankees sent Dustin Fowler, James Kaprielian and Jorge Mateo for
Gray — and Fowler and Kaprielian were out with season-ending injuries at the
time.

今年七月洋基送出Fowler、Kaprielian、Mateo換到Gray、值得一提的是Fowler以及Kapri
elian當時都是處於賽季報銷的狀況。

Clint Frazier has become more expendable with Stanton acquired. Are Frazier, A
dams and Tyler Wade close to the Gray package? Could it be sweetened further w
ith the addition of another arm such as Luis Cessa? Cole is guesstimated to ma
ke $7.5 million in arbitration (all arbitration forecasts come from MLB Trade
Rumors).

Clint Frazier在Stanton到來後顯得比較多餘。
一個由Frazier、Adams、Wade組成的包裹
是否和季中的那個包裹價值相等呢？還是說要加上另一個投手譬如Cessa，才會讓海賊點
頭？Cole被預估會在接下來的薪資仲裁中拿到7.5M。

2. Patrick Corbin, Diamondbacks: Arizona is in an interesting spot: It made th
e playoffs last year. But it also is about to have key turnover with Corbin an
d A.J. Pollock looming as free agents after 2018 and Paul Goldschmidt followin
g 2019 while Zack Greinke’s weighty contract makes it difficult to keep other
s.

2. 派屈烤餅：蛇蛇就比較有趣了。他們今年有打進季後賽。但是接下來18年烤餅&Polloc
k會成為FA，緊接著19年是Goldschmidt。一切都因為Z魔神的大合約顯得比較困難。

The Yankees like groundballs and strikeouts, and Corbin — an athletic lefty
— is an extreme groundball pitcher with good strikeout numbers. Once his slid
er locked in, he pitched well last year, with a 3.28 ERA in his final 21 games
(20 starts). I keep wondering if the Yankees can use Dellin Betances ($4.4 mi
llion and a free agent after the 2019 season) as the main piece for teams look
ing for high-end relief help. Corbin is predicted for $8.3 million in his fina
l arbitration year.

洋基是喜歡滾地球和三振的球隊（有哪隻球隊不喜歡......）而烤餅就是一位極佳的滾地
球
投手，與此同時他的三振能力也是不俗的。只要他的滑球狀況良好，他就能繳出優質的投
球成績。去年21場出賽（20場先發）僅有3.28ERA。我很想知道洋基有沒有辦法用大B為首
的包裹去向那些想補強牛棚的球隊交易SP。烤餅被預估會在接下來的薪資仲裁拿到8.3M。

I keep wondering if Alex Wood of the Dodgers could be obtained in the same way
, with Betances fronting a package.

我也很想知道道奇隊的Alex Wood是否也可以用大B萬用包達成交易（？

3. Michael Fulmer, Tigers: Detroit is rebuilding, and Fulmer is a big talent w
ho is not even arbitration eligible. But should a rebuilding team turn one fut
ure piece into three or four? The Yankees have a deep farm system, and again I
wonder about a four-player package that begins with Frazier and either Adams,
Abreu or Sheffield.

3. Fulmer：老虎正在重建，而Fulmer是一個甚至還未達到薪資仲裁資格的優秀SP。但是
一個重建中的球隊該不該把一個潛力股換成3～4個潛力股呢？洋基擁有雄厚的農場，我同
樣想知道一個以Frazier為首，Adams或Abreu或Sheffield為輔的四人新秀包有沒有辦法達
成交易。

4. Kendall Graveman/Sean Manaea, Athletics: Obviously, the A’s know the Yanke
es’ system well from the Gray trade. Graveman is intriguing, but there is wor
ry about his shoulder and how poorly he pitched away from Oakland. Manaea is a
lefty comparable to perhaps Montgomery. That might not be enough for the Yank
ees to give up Frazier. But what if the deal expanded, so the Yankees also got
a strong left-on-left reliever such as Daniel Coulombe, who held lefties to a
.596 OPS last year?

4. 綠帽的Graveman或是Manaea：顯而易見地，綠帽在Gray的交易案中已經很好的了解了
洋基農場了。Graveman是個不錯的選擇，可是他有肩傷疑慮以及會在客場爆炸的問題。Ma
naea是個和芒果較為類似的左投。這應該不足以讓洋基丟出Frazier。但要是Coulombe同
樣被放入交易包裹內呢？他是個專門左克左的左手牛，去年只讓左打者擁有.596的OPS。

5. Jeff Samardzija, Giants: He has a lot of similarities with Michael Pineda
— results that are not as good as his stuff and strikeout/walk numbers sugges
t. The difference is he is a massive innings eater at a time when the Yanks ne
ed some sturdiness. Only Samardzija and Max Scherzer have topped 200 innings i
n each of the past five years.

5. 鯊魚：他的型態和Pineda很雷同，成績並沒有反應在他們擁有的天賦以及三振保送比
上。唯一的不同是，鯊魚可以吃下龐大的局數，而這正是洋基所需要的。只有鯊魚和薛蛇
在過去的5個賽季都吃下超過200IP。

The only way this works for the Yankees is if the Giants take Jacoby Ellsbury,
who also would have to waive his no-trade clause. Ellsbury has three years an
d $68.4 million left on his deal, Samardzija three years at $54 million. If th
is needed to be a complete salary wash, Denard Span has one year at $13 millio
n left. So Samardzija plus Span equals $67 million compared to Ellsbury’s $68
.4 million.

洋基得到鯊魚的唯一解就是把小帥哥送去巨人，當然也要太放棄NTC。小帥哥剩餘合約3y/
68M，鯊魚則是3y/54M。如果這真的要變成一個爛約互換的話，或許巨人會搭上Span剩餘1
y/13M的合約。這樣兩邊的薪資差異才不會太大。

The Giants need power, particularly righty power, and Frazier projects to have
it. The Yanks got rid of Headley’s contract by attaching Mitchell’s upside
arm in the deal, and in this way the Yankees would be attaching Frazier to Ell
sbury.

巨人需要攻擊火力，尤其是右強打者，而Frazier被預估有這個能力。洋基透過貼上Mitch
ell來丟掉黑力的合約，如果想丟掉Ells的就只能貼上Frazier了。

Could Frazier, Domingo Acevedo and Tyler Wade in conjunction with Ellsbury get
Samardzija?

Frazier+Acevedo+Wade+Ells能換到鯊魚嗎？

6. Danny Duffy, Royals: Kansas City is thinking more and more of a full rebuil
d and knows its ace would get a strong return. He has four years at $60 millio
n left and would count $13 million against the 2018 luxury-tax payroll. He did
have an elbow impingement late last season (from which he returned to make th
ree starts), plus was arrested and charged with DUI. Like with the A’s and Co
ulombe, if the Royals include quality lefty Scott Alexander, I can imagine the
Yankees giving more in talent.

6. Duffy：皇家已經開始在考慮重建的道路了。他們也知道Duffy將會強勢回歸。Duffy的
剩餘合約為4y/60M並且2018年薪資為13M。他去年是動過肘關節手術（傷癒復出後出賽先
發3場），並且最近也因為酒駕被捕。和綠帽的Graveman狀況雷同，要是皇家願意在交易
中放入Scott Alexander，洋基或許會願意在包裹中多加入一些新秀。





如果是5、6的話，直接搶達比不會比較好嗎？

1、3一定會燒農場，可是也比較讓人期待。

相較之下2、4就比較雞肋......應該是1、3要價太高，退而求其次的方案了吧

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