水手明年進季後賽的理由? - 美國職棒

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While the odds are certainly against them, there are reasons for Mariners
fans to have optimism for the 2012 season. Here are a few reasons why we
could all be watching postseason baseball at Safeco Field next fall.


The pitching is really good

Even with the losses of right-hander Doug Fister (traded to Detroit) and Erik
Bedard (traded to Boston), the rotation should still be of a caliber that can
take a team into the playoffs. There isn't a starting-pitcher in baseball I'd
rather have than Felix Hernandez, and Michael Pineda was better than anyone
could have hoped. Jason Vargas and Blake Beavan were adequate back-end
starters and then some. There's also the possibility that either Danny
Hultzen or James Paxton -- or possibly both -- contribute to the rotation
next year, making it one of the most talented rotations in baseball.

There are several reasons that Seattle might struggle in 2012, but the
rotation isn't one of them.

The bullpen had its most moments of frustration this past season, but the
talent cannot be questioned. Outside of the disastrous series versus the
Baltimore Orioles, Brandon League was as good a closer as there was in
baseball. Right-hander Tom Wilhelmsen struggled early in the year, but by
September it looked like the M's found their new answer for one of the
late-inning roles. Add in talented right-handers Chance Ruffin, Josh Lueke
and Dan Cortes -- with Stephen Pryor, Forrest Snow and Tyler Burgoon likely
being ready to contribute soon -- there's the potential for a lights-out
'pen. David Aardsma could be a factor late in the year, too.

It's also worth noting that GM Jack Zduriencik built the bullpen through
trades and the club spent less money on their relief corps than all but four
AL clubs in 2011.


The offense is improving

That may not be the general consensus, but it should be. The Mariners were a
much better team in 2011 than 2010, and if you take away that pesky little
17-game losing streak -- and perhaps put them at 7-10 during that stretch --
it wasn't close.

Even without major additions to the lineup, it is reasonable to expect more
offensive production from every position but shortstop and catcher -- Brendan
Ryan and Miguel Olivo are what they are -- lending the overall numbers a
significant show if improvement, mostly due to further development of the
young players.

Last year, the Mariners had 2,716 plate appearances from non-pitchers who had
an on-base percentage below .300. (Seriously) That essentially is 815 outs --
or 272 innings -- of anti-goodness, for lack of a better term. There just
doesn't seem any way possible that such poor performances do not improve in
2012, which means there might be a lineup that can keep the team into games.


Division regression

We won't really know the answer to this question till winter, but there are
major questions for all three of the division competitors next year.

Texas may be losing its ace for the second straight year in free-agent-to-be
C.J. Wilson, and while the lineup is still considerably better than the rest
of the division, there are holes that need to be filled if they expect to win
the division a third straight year. They'll also be asking Adrian Beltre,
Nelson Cruz, Josh Hamilton and others to stay relatively healthy all season,
something they have struggled to do in the past, including in 2011.

The Los Angeles Angels have one of the better rotations in the American
League, but there are far too many automatic outs in the lineup, and the
Halos may not have the money to spend to acquire a big bat thanks to the
albatross contract of Vernon Wells and the financial commitments to Torii
Hunter and the pitching staff.

The Oakland Athletics are similar to the M's -- they are led by solid
pitching, including the potential for a top bullpen -- but they lack a young
player with the offensive potential of Dustin Ackley, or Justin Smoak for
that matter, and they don't have the means to acquire the necessary bats to
allow them to compete for the division. Of the four, the A's would be the
most surprising team to finish atop the AL West in 2012, barring a Billy
Beane stroke of genius. And when was the last time we saw that?


It happens

It certainly isn't common, per se, but teams have jumped from worst to first
from one year to the next. In fact, it happened just this past year with the
Arizona Diamondbacks. How did the Diamondbacks do it? They did it with solid
starting-pitching, defense and a reliable bullpen. Do the M's have that?
Check, check, and check. The difference is the M's don't have the bat of a
Justin Upton or Miguel Montero on their roster -- and the National League
West is a train-wreck of a division. If you're looking for proof that
worst-to-first occurs, however, look no further than Phoenix.

The Tampa Bay Rays went from last place in 2007 to the World Series in 2008.
The Minnesota Twins went from 74-88 and a last-place finish in 1990 to
winning the World Series in 1991 -- over the Atlanta Braves, who won 65 games
in 1990 and 94 the following season.

As mentioned in the introduction, there's a lot of work to be done, and the
most likely scenario is that the Seattle Mariners aren't competing for the
division until 2013, at the earliest. With a little bit of luck, though,
natural progression, regression from the rivals, and an off-season move or
two, there is absolutely a non-zero chance that the Mariners are hoisting up
a division championship banner come Opening Day 2013.

While most analysts will suggest the M's are clearly two or three years away,
there are too many examples to the contrary for fans -- and most importantly,
the team itself -- to operate on such terms. The M's window of opportunity
starts right now.

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