數字會說話：Djokovic的反拍是關鍵 - 諾瓦克·喬科維奇 Djokovic

原文出處：http://tinyurl.com/qcpwtsq

Brain Game是專門用數據分析網球的網站，這篇分析我覺得滿有趣的就順便翻譯給大家。

Brain Game author Craig O’Shannessy breaks down the big matches each day
during The Championships.

Novak Djokovic dominated two key patterns of play that ultimately helped him
win Wimbledon for the second time by the smallest of margins.

Djokovic在兩項數據中的絕對佔優最終讓他得以些微的差距贏得第二座溫網冠軍。

Djokovic defeated Roger Federer 6-7(7), 6-4, 7-6(4), 5-7, 6-4 in an epic final
that was almost inseparable on the scoreboard and on the statistical sheets
except for the key defensive areas of backhands and second serves.

Djokovic在史詩般的決賽中以6-7(7), 6-4, 7-6(4), 5-7, 6-4擊敗了Federer。除了反
拍與二發外，其他的統計數據都如計分板上的比分一樣十分接近。

While Federer dominated the match with winners (75 to 68) and almost won the
final with spectacular offense, it was ultimately the Serb’s defensive skills
that weighed heavily in overcoming adversity to triumph at SW19.

Federer在致勝球上領先（75個對上68個），靠著優異的進攻能力幾乎贏下了比賽。但最
終，Djokovic的防守技巧是他得以逆轉奪冠的重要因素之一。

Djokovic’s thrilling victory came in large part by saving a break point at 3-3,
30/40 in the fifth set. He worked Federer’s backhand, and the slice passing
shot ended up in the net. Dodging that bullet - the only break point Djokovic
faced in the fifth - was as important as any of the 186 points the 27 year old
won in the final.

在第五盤3-3平手時救下破發點對Djokovic這場激勵人心的勝利來說至關重要。他持續攻擊
Federer的反拍，並在上網時用了一記切球穿越結束了這分。化解第五盤唯一的破發點跟
Djokovic在決賽中贏下的186分一樣重要。（啊就一分一分得啊）

Backhand Battle
Djokovic’s main edge was the ability to control the back of the court with a
backhand far superior to Federer's. Djokovic hit 18 backhand winners to
Federer’s four which was a considerable differential considering Djokovic hit
just five more forehand winners (24 to 19) for the match. It was a way to
create offense, dictate the direction and flow of the rally and also provide
incredible defence, particularly with raking passing shots down the line.

反拍之爭
Djokovic主要的優勢在於使用比Federer優異的反拍控制底線。Djokovic擊出了18記的反拍
致勝球，Federer只有四記。正拍致勝球方面雙方差距較小，Djokovic以24個領先Federer
的19個。這是Djokovic創造進攻機會、打出方向角度並控制擊球節奏的方式，同時也提供
了不可思議的防守，尤其是直線的穿越球。

Djokovic’s backhand stood tall against Federer’s net play as he scorched 11
backhand passing-shot winners that made Federer second-guess coming forward.
Djokovic also hit two forehand passing-shot winners for a total of 13 which was
much higher than Federer’s two passing shot winners for the match.

Djokovic的反手拍限制了Federer的網前發揮，出色的反拍穿越球讓Federer上網時更加猶
豫。Djokovic擊出了包含兩個正手穿越的13個穿越致勝球，比Federer的2個穿越致勝球多
出許多。

IBM’s Aggressive Analysis, a measure of a shot's power, direction, depth and
point of origin on the court, highlighted Federer’s slight edge with bigger
forehands, hitting 75 to 69 for the match. But when it came to backhands,
Djokovic was in a class all of his own, dominating 58 to 34. Djokovic
ultimately committed 41 total backhand errors for the match but it was several
less than Federer’s 50. Djokovic committed 10 backhand errors in sets one, two
and four, but he locked it down in set three when desperately called upon for
only six errors.

IBM的侵略性分析使用擊球的力道、方向、深度與擊球位置判斷求的侵略性。這項分析指出
Federer在正拍上的些微優勢，Federer總共擊出75個具侵略性的正拍，多於Djokovic的69
個。然而在反拍方面，Djokovic以58個具侵略性的反拍大幅領先Federer的34個。Djokovic
在決賽中共發生了41次的反拍失誤，但仍少於Federer的50個。Djokovic在第一、二、四盤
個發生了10個反拍失誤，但在第三盤時有小的控制反拍失誤到僅有6個。

In the deciding fifth set, with the title completely up for grabs, the Serb
committed only five backhand errors. It helped stop the bleeding of losing the
fourth set, which he had led 5-2 and failed to convert a match point at 4-5
when Federer aced him. In the fifth set, with Djokovic battling the scoreboard,
crowd, an in-form opponent and fatigue, there was not a shot he had more
confidence in than his beloved backhand. Djokovic won 48 per cent (93/193) of
points that he finished at the baseline, mainly because of his rock-solid
backhand, while Federer could only manage 40 per cent (65/161) when he was at
the baseline when a point ended.

在決勝的第五盤中，當雙方都十分可能拿下比賽時，Djokovic僅僅發生了5次反拍失誤，幫
助他從5-2領先時輸掉第四盤，甚至錯過了5-4領先時的賽末點的情況下止血。(Federer賞
了個ACE) 當Djokovic在第五盤中與分數、觀眾、狀態良好的對手和疲累的身心中拼搏時，
他最有信心的無疑是他心愛的反手拍(\反拍萌萌/....咦)。Djokovic在底線結束分數時贏
得了48%的分數(93/193)，主要也是因為他(華碩品質)堅若磐石的反拍。Federer在底線結
束分數時的得分僅有40%(65/161)。

Second-Serve Points
Federer served like a god when hitting a first serve, crushing 29 aces, making
an extremely high 69 per cent of first serves and winning 77 per cent of them.
Those kind of numbers usually get the job done on any other day. It was almost
impossible for Djokovic to make a dent against Federer’s first serves but when
he missed it, that’s when defense turned into offense for the Serb. Djokovic
humbled Federer’s second serve, with the Swiss superstar only winning a
tournament low 44 per cent over the five sets.

二發得分
Federer再發進一發時如同費神降臨，轟出29記ACE，一發進球率為極高的69%，一發得分率
更高達77%。這樣的數據大部份都足以贏下比賽了。對Djokovic來說，對抗Federer的一發
十分困難，但當Federer一發沒進時，Djokovic得以轉守為攻。Djokovic對Federer的二發
持續施加壓力，使得Federer在決賽中的二發得分率來到本次所有比賽中最低的44%。

By contrast, Djokovic has solid numbers on first serves, making 62 per cent,
winning 73 per cent, but was lights out on second serves compared to Federer.
Djokovic was almost 50 per cent better than Federer in this area, winning 65
per cent of his second serve points under extreme pressure. This was also six
per cent better than Djokovic’s tournament average, giving him another key
strategic area to rely on in the final. Djokovic has always counted his second
serve return as a strength of his game and it really came to play on Sunday.

另一方面，Djokovic在一發數據上十分穩健，一發進球率與得分率分別為62%和73%。然而
Djokovic在二發的數據上遠遠優於Federer。Djokovic在二發數據上比Federer好了將近
50%，在極大的壓力下二發得分率是65%(!?)。Djokovic在決賽中的的二發得分率比這次溫
網其他賽事高出了6%，成為他在決賽中另一項關鍵的可靠策略戰術。Djokovic的二發回球
是他比賽中的強項，而在星期天的決賽中他在此領域也有出色的發揮。

Attacking
Federer correctly came to the net as much as possible against Djokovic to find
an edge, winning 78 per cent (28/36) serving and volleying and 66 per cent
(44/67) approaching. It was a smart strategy that especially got Federer back
into the match after he trailed 2-5 in the fourth set. Federer came to the net
16 times in the fourth set, which was second only to 17 in the opening set,
which he also won. If there was one strategy he might regret not using more, it
would be the drop off in getting to the net in the fifth set - where he came in
only 14 times, winning eight. With Djokovic on the ropes physically and
mentally, an all-out assault on the front of the court may have yielded a
different result.

攻擊性擊球
Federer盡可能上網搶得先機的戰術是正確的。他發球上網的得分率為78%(28/36)，上網
得分率則是66%(44/67)。這是個聰明的策略，在Federer第四盤2-5落後時尤其奏效。
Federer在第四盤上網16次，只比第一盤的17次少，Federer也拿下了第一與第四盤。如果
Federer會後悔沒有使用任何戰術，應該是在第五盤減少了上網次數：Federer在第五盤僅
僅上網了14次，贏得了其中的8次。當Djokovic在身心上都幾乎走投無路時，在網前的全
方位攻擊或許會導致不同的結果。

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閒聊時間

我個人滿喜歡這種數據派的分析（跟本身專業領域或許有關），
但有些時候數據還是不太夠多
如同最後這段的上網次數跟得分率
其實五盤來說差異應該都不大
雖然Federer在底線的確不具優勢
但個人覺得大多數時間他的上網選擇都還算不錯
(我絕對不會想起Roddick的莫名亂上網而感傷QQ)
只是Djokovic的底線穿越球太過出色了

以上，謝謝大家。

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