三分球過於氾濫 經紀人希望聯盟應該做出改變
http://i.imgur.com/ZbR7iyi.jpg
A COUPLE OF WEEKS back, the Milwaukee Bucks and Minnesota Timberwolves squar
ed off in a game that only a few years ago would have been historic but in 2
021 is just another Tuesday night. In a sparsely filled Fiserv Forum, the tw
o teams attempted 96 3-point shots -- one every 30 seconds.
幾週前，公鹿隊在對決灰狼在一場比賽中兩隊共出手96次三分球，每30秒出手一次，如
果在幾年前，這場比賽可能會是歷史性的，但方在2021年這樣的三分對飆只是再平常不
過的事。
Of the 22 players who took the floor, 19 of them took at least one 3.
在22名上場的球員中，有19人至少投了1次三分球。
Wolves rookie Anthony Edwards is a marvel leaping off two feet, as witnessed
by his recent dunk of the year spectacular?-- though you wouldn't know it f
rom this performance.The 31.4% 3-point shooter jacked up two attempts in the
third quarter off the dribble from 26 feet, with 16 and 14 seconds remainin
g on the shot clock,
灰狼狀元Anthony Edwards以強硬的突破和勁爆的灌籃著稱，儘管當晚你從他的表現中無
法看出這一點。 在第三節，Edwards有兩次在26英尺的位置直接出手，而進攻時間顯示
還有16秒和14秒。
Likewise, two-time reigning MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo, the league's most dev
astating finisher and still trying to cultivate an outside game, twice breez
ed across half court and launched an early triple.
同樣的，兩次獲得MVP的字母哥，作為聯盟籃下終結能力最強的怪物之一，仍然在努力培
養外線能力，兩次輕鬆穿過半場不久就出手遠投。
For a growing number of NBA executives and coaches, the problem isn't that N
BA offenses are wrong for firing up an average of 35 attempts per game from
long distance. The problem is that they're right. It would be tactical malpr
actice for any team to swear off the 3-pointer
對於越來越多的球隊高層和教練們看來，自己的隊伍每場出手35次三分球並不是問題，
不投才是問題。對於任何球隊來說，不投三分都是戰術失誤。
There are a handful of players whose midrange 2-point attempt represents a h
igh-percentage shot, but for the vast majority of players, the best shot is
one from behind the 3-point line or at the rim.
聯盟裡有很少部分球員有著較高的中距離命中率，但對於大多數的球員來說，最好的出
手點是在三分線外或籃下。
Recent conversations with multiple league insiders about the state of the ga
me reveal a consistent theme: As the rate of 3-pointers has exploded, the NB
A might finally be reaching a critical mass. Some raise concerns because the
y believe the 3-ball has created a monotonous rhythm to each game, while oth
ers believe it has distorted the scoring system that determines wins and los
ses.
最近多位聯盟內部人士對於比賽狀態已經產生了這樣一種聲音：隨著三分球率的激增，
按照眼下的態勢發展下去，NBA的三分球問題早晚會達到臨界點。越來越多人對此感到擔
憂，有些人覺得三分球已經讓比賽變得過於單調，還有人認為這種武器已經扭曲了決定
輸贏的得分方式。
"You can go overboard -- those nights you get 45 and 50 [attempts]," said De
troit Pistons coach Dwane Casey, whose team ranks 11th in percentage of fiel
d goals attempted that are 3-pointers. "Your quality of shots is going down,
and there's going to be quick possessions. It kind of dilutes the spirit of
the game and the soul of the game. It's about moving the ball from side to
side, not just coming down and jacking up quick 3s.
活塞主教練Dwane Casey稱：你可以走的非常極端，有時候你一場三分球能出手45-50次
。他的隊伍三分出手數排在聯盟第11。你的投籃品質在下降，有時候會有很多倉促的回
合。從某些角度來看，這沖淡了比賽的精神和靈魂。這應該是一項關於轉移球尋找機會
的運動，而不是提速來完成三分出手。
Measures that have been implemented over the past 20 years to help jump-star
t scoring are approaching an age of overcorrection. In an effort to lift the
game out of the '90s mud
為了把NBA從90年代的泥濘對抗中解放出來，聯盟過去20年中採取了一系列措施，但他們
的調整似乎有些過度了。
THERE'S LITTLE DESIRE across the league to return to Patrick Ewing vs. Alonz
o Mourning, but there's also a sense that the game is losing diversity of id
entity, at least offensively. This school of thought maintains that a stylis
tic conformity has overtaken the game. One of the more appealing characteris
tics of basketball is the number of ways a player can score, but a 3-pointer
every 30 to 45 seconds introduces a repetition that isn't so appealing.
聯盟並不希望比賽又重回Patrick Ewing和Alonzo Mourning肉搏的時代，但眼下的比賽
也確實在失去多樣性，至少在進攻端是如此。風格上的一致性正在掩蓋比賽的魅力，籃
球比賽最吸引人的地方之一就是豐富的戰術和得分方式，但隨著所有球隊都在每隔30-4
0秒就出手一次三分，讓比賽變得枯燥。
As offenses now field four or even five shooters on the floor, and dynamos s
uch as Stephen Curry and Damian Lillard must be accounted for at 30 feet or
beyond, defenses simply have too much ground to cover to properly challenge
the barrage of long-range shots.
現在不少的隊伍都會在場上擺4個甚至5個射手，再加上像Curry、Damian Lillard這種能
把30英尺出手變成常規操作的變態射手，防守的球員幾乎不可能覆蓋到這麼大的防守範
圍。
"It often looks like no defense is being played," Casey said. "But when ther
e are four shooters on the floor and a big man at the dunker [spot], spacing
is inflated and a defense is stretched to its limit. Guys are working, but
it's impossible to cover that much ground against NBA speed, quickness and p
ower.
Casey教練說：現在的比賽經常會看上去根本沒有防守。但是當你在場上擺了4個射手，
內線還有一個攻框中鋒的時候，進攻空間太大了，防守的範圍是有限的。大家已經在努
力了，但考慮到NBA球員的速度、爆發力和敏捷性，想要防住這樣的進攻是不可能的。
Including the playoffs, 61 games in NBA history have featured at least 90 3-
point attempts -- and 45 of the 61 have occurred since the start of last sea
son, according to ESPN Sports & Information. The 3-pointer now represents 39
.4% of all field goal attempts -- that's up 61% from the 2011-12 season. For
those who welcome or accept the ascendance of the 3, this is a feature not
a bug.
據數據統計，包含季後賽在內，NBA歷史上有61場比賽至少有90次三分出手，其中45次發
生在上個賽季開始之後。 如今各隊平均三分出手佔比達到39.4%，比2011-12賽季增加了
61%但對於那些不認為三分是壞事的教練來說，這僅僅是一個改變，而不是問題。
"I don't think we can call it a bad thing when players are highly skilled, w
hich is what the game should be about," Carlisle said. "The 3-point shot has
revolutionized our game. Taking a dribble-up 3 six or seven years ago was a
cardinal sin. And now we're all doing drills where guys shoot dribble-up 3s
-- and we include our 7-3 center in those drills. The value of this sort of
3-point shot is big.
Carlisle：我不覺得這是壞事，球員們變得技術更好了，籃球比賽本來就是這樣，三分
球正在改寫這項運動，持球投三分在6、7年前還被視為愚蠢，但現在所有人都在這麼幹
，甚至連我們身高超過2.2米的中鋒都進行了三分練習。三分就是如此重要。
WHERE AND WHEN the trajectory levels out and 3-pointers are no longer a grow
th commodity in the NBA is unknown. The league could soon see a day when mor
e than 50% of attempted shots are fired from beyond the arc, or it could see
the advent of creative defenses led by a generation of players who can stem
the tide. Just as likely, those who govern the NBA may believe that reining
in the 3-pointer is a solution in search of a problem.
NBA的三分浪潮何時才能放緩這點目前還不得而知，也許聯盟會在不遠的將來看到各隊三
分出手佔比突破50%，也許有人能發明出更有效的防守策略。但更有可能的情況是，通過
控制三分是一個尋找問題的解決方案。
Given the 50% premium for a shot that's rarely 50% more difficult, getting p
layers to wean themselves off 3-pointers wouldn't come without some signific
ant changes to the incentive structure.
和兩分球相比，三分球多出了50%的產量，但難度卻沒有高出50%，如果沒有一些重大的
改變，要讓球員們戒掉三分球是不可能的。
A more radical proposal from a longtime league power broker who wishes to re
main anonymous (unless the idea gains traction) would curb inflation by limi
ting supply: Cap the amount of 3-pointers a team can take over the course of
a game.
一位具有權勢的匿名經紀人提出了更激進的建議，他覺得聯盟可以限制每支球隊在比賽
中的三分球出手次數。
Over the first 42 minutes of the game, each team would have the chance to at
tempt 20 shots from beyond the arc that would count for three points. Once a
n offense runs out of those 20 attempts, it can keep shooting from behind th
e line, but each subsequent make would count for only two points -- until th
e 6:00 mark of the fourth quarter, when attempts would once again worth thre
e points until the game is over.
在比賽的前42分鐘內，每支球隊的前20次三分出手將計入三分。一但進攻方的20次出手
用完，後續的三分出手只能算2分。而到了第四節最後6分鐘，再恢復成正常的三分計分
，直到比賽結束。
Under these rules, an offense would need to be strategic and selective with
its 3s.
如果在這種規則下比賽，各隊對於三分出手的使用會更加謹慎。
A successful league remains in a constant state of vigilance about the chara
cter of its product and the pat of its trends. Scoring, and the 3-pointer i
n particular, revitalized NBA basketball at some of its most precarious mome
nts when it threatened to fall behind the NHL, then again two decades later
when it lost its aesthetic appeal.
一個成功的商業體育聯盟，應當始終關注自己的產品特性和變化。在NBA面臨落後於NHL
的危機時刻，三分球的出現曾經拯救了NBA，讓它在很長一段時間裡蓬勃發展。然而在2
0年後，當它失去審美吸引力時，聯盟就應該有所行動。
https://reurl.cc/qmGzWn
--
http://i.imgur.com/ZbR7iyi.jpg
A COUPLE OF WEEKS back, the Milwaukee Bucks and Minnesota Timberwolves squar
ed off in a game that only a few years ago would have been historic but in 2
021 is just another Tuesday night. In a sparsely filled Fiserv Forum, the tw
o teams attempted 96 3-point shots -- one every 30 seconds.
幾週前，公鹿隊在對決灰狼在一場比賽中兩隊共出手96次三分球，每30秒出手一次，如
果在幾年前，這場比賽可能會是歷史性的，但方在2021年這樣的三分對飆只是再平常不
過的事。
Of the 22 players who took the floor, 19 of them took at least one 3.
在22名上場的球員中，有19人至少投了1次三分球。
Wolves rookie Anthony Edwards is a marvel leaping off two feet, as witnessed
by his recent dunk of the year spectacular?-- though you wouldn't know it f
rom this performance.The 31.4% 3-point shooter jacked up two attempts in the
third quarter off the dribble from 26 feet, with 16 and 14 seconds remainin
g on the shot clock,
灰狼狀元Anthony Edwards以強硬的突破和勁爆的灌籃著稱，儘管當晚你從他的表現中無
法看出這一點。 在第三節，Edwards有兩次在26英尺的位置直接出手，而進攻時間顯示
還有16秒和14秒。
Likewise, two-time reigning MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo, the league's most dev
astating finisher and still trying to cultivate an outside game, twice breez
ed across half court and launched an early triple.
同樣的，兩次獲得MVP的字母哥，作為聯盟籃下終結能力最強的怪物之一，仍然在努力培
養外線能力，兩次輕鬆穿過半場不久就出手遠投。
For a growing number of NBA executives and coaches, the problem isn't that N
BA offenses are wrong for firing up an average of 35 attempts per game from
long distance. The problem is that they're right. It would be tactical malpr
actice for any team to swear off the 3-pointer
對於越來越多的球隊高層和教練們看來，自己的隊伍每場出手35次三分球並不是問題，
不投才是問題。對於任何球隊來說，不投三分都是戰術失誤。
There are a handful of players whose midrange 2-point attempt represents a h
igh-percentage shot, but for the vast majority of players, the best shot is
one from behind the 3-point line or at the rim.
聯盟裡有很少部分球員有著較高的中距離命中率，但對於大多數的球員來說，最好的出
手點是在三分線外或籃下。
Recent conversations with multiple league insiders about the state of the ga
me reveal a consistent theme: As the rate of 3-pointers has exploded, the NB
A might finally be reaching a critical mass. Some raise concerns because the
y believe the 3-ball has created a monotonous rhythm to each game, while oth
ers believe it has distorted the scoring system that determines wins and los
ses.
最近多位聯盟內部人士對於比賽狀態已經產生了這樣一種聲音：隨著三分球率的激增，
按照眼下的態勢發展下去，NBA的三分球問題早晚會達到臨界點。越來越多人對此感到擔
憂，有些人覺得三分球已經讓比賽變得過於單調，還有人認為這種武器已經扭曲了決定
輸贏的得分方式。
"You can go overboard -- those nights you get 45 and 50 [attempts]," said De
troit Pistons coach Dwane Casey, whose team ranks 11th in percentage of fiel
d goals attempted that are 3-pointers. "Your quality of shots is going down,
and there's going to be quick possessions. It kind of dilutes the spirit of
the game and the soul of the game. It's about moving the ball from side to
side, not just coming down and jacking up quick 3s.
活塞主教練Dwane Casey稱：你可以走的非常極端，有時候你一場三分球能出手45-50次
。他的隊伍三分出手數排在聯盟第11。你的投籃品質在下降，有時候會有很多倉促的回
合。從某些角度來看，這沖淡了比賽的精神和靈魂。這應該是一項關於轉移球尋找機會
的運動，而不是提速來完成三分出手。
Measures that have been implemented over the past 20 years to help jump-star
t scoring are approaching an age of overcorrection. In an effort to lift the
game out of the '90s mud
為了把NBA從90年代的泥濘對抗中解放出來，聯盟過去20年中採取了一系列措施，但他們
的調整似乎有些過度了。
THERE'S LITTLE DESIRE across the league to return to Patrick Ewing vs. Alonz
o Mourning, but there's also a sense that the game is losing diversity of id
entity, at least offensively. This school of thought maintains that a stylis
tic conformity has overtaken the game. One of the more appealing characteris
tics of basketball is the number of ways a player can score, but a 3-pointer
every 30 to 45 seconds introduces a repetition that isn't so appealing.
聯盟並不希望比賽又重回Patrick Ewing和Alonzo Mourning肉搏的時代，但眼下的比賽
也確實在失去多樣性，至少在進攻端是如此。風格上的一致性正在掩蓋比賽的魅力，籃
球比賽最吸引人的地方之一就是豐富的戰術和得分方式，但隨著所有球隊都在每隔30-4
0秒就出手一次三分，讓比賽變得枯燥。
As offenses now field four or even five shooters on the floor, and dynamos s
uch as Stephen Curry and Damian Lillard must be accounted for at 30 feet or
beyond, defenses simply have too much ground to cover to properly challenge
the barrage of long-range shots.
現在不少的隊伍都會在場上擺4個甚至5個射手，再加上像Curry、Damian Lillard這種能
把30英尺出手變成常規操作的變態射手，防守的球員幾乎不可能覆蓋到這麼大的防守範
圍。
"It often looks like no defense is being played," Casey said. "But when ther
e are four shooters on the floor and a big man at the dunker [spot], spacing
is inflated and a defense is stretched to its limit. Guys are working, but
it's impossible to cover that much ground against NBA speed, quickness and p
ower.
Casey教練說：現在的比賽經常會看上去根本沒有防守。但是當你在場上擺了4個射手，
內線還有一個攻框中鋒的時候，進攻空間太大了，防守的範圍是有限的。大家已經在努
力了，但考慮到NBA球員的速度、爆發力和敏捷性，想要防住這樣的進攻是不可能的。
Including the playoffs, 61 games in NBA history have featured at least 90 3-
point attempts -- and 45 of the 61 have occurred since the start of last sea
son, according to ESPN Sports & Information. The 3-pointer now represents 39
.4% of all field goal attempts -- that's up 61% from the 2011-12 season. For
those who welcome or accept the ascendance of the 3, this is a feature not
a bug.
據數據統計，包含季後賽在內，NBA歷史上有61場比賽至少有90次三分出手，其中45次發
生在上個賽季開始之後。 如今各隊平均三分出手佔比達到39.4%，比2011-12賽季增加了
61%但對於那些不認為三分是壞事的教練來說，這僅僅是一個改變，而不是問題。
"I don't think we can call it a bad thing when players are highly skilled, w
hich is what the game should be about," Carlisle said. "The 3-point shot has
revolutionized our game. Taking a dribble-up 3 six or seven years ago was a
cardinal sin. And now we're all doing drills where guys shoot dribble-up 3s
-- and we include our 7-3 center in those drills. The value of this sort of
3-point shot is big.
Carlisle：我不覺得這是壞事，球員們變得技術更好了，籃球比賽本來就是這樣，三分
球正在改寫這項運動，持球投三分在6、7年前還被視為愚蠢，但現在所有人都在這麼幹
，甚至連我們身高超過2.2米的中鋒都進行了三分練習。三分就是如此重要。
WHERE AND WHEN the trajectory levels out and 3-pointers are no longer a grow
th commodity in the NBA is unknown. The league could soon see a day when mor
e than 50% of attempted shots are fired from beyond the arc, or it could see
the advent of creative defenses led by a generation of players who can stem
the tide. Just as likely, those who govern the NBA may believe that reining
in the 3-pointer is a solution in search of a problem.
NBA的三分浪潮何時才能放緩這點目前還不得而知，也許聯盟會在不遠的將來看到各隊三
分出手佔比突破50%，也許有人能發明出更有效的防守策略。但更有可能的情況是，通過
控制三分是一個尋找問題的解決方案。
Given the 50% premium for a shot that's rarely 50% more difficult, getting p
layers to wean themselves off 3-pointers wouldn't come without some signific
ant changes to the incentive structure.
和兩分球相比，三分球多出了50%的產量，但難度卻沒有高出50%，如果沒有一些重大的
改變，要讓球員們戒掉三分球是不可能的。
A more radical proposal from a longtime league power broker who wishes to re
main anonymous (unless the idea gains traction) would curb inflation by limi
ting supply: Cap the amount of 3-pointers a team can take over the course of
a game.
一位具有權勢的匿名經紀人提出了更激進的建議，他覺得聯盟可以限制每支球隊在比賽
中的三分球出手次數。
Over the first 42 minutes of the game, each team would have the chance to at
tempt 20 shots from beyond the arc that would count for three points. Once a
n offense runs out of those 20 attempts, it can keep shooting from behind th
e line, but each subsequent make would count for only two points -- until th
e 6:00 mark of the fourth quarter, when attempts would once again worth thre
e points until the game is over.
在比賽的前42分鐘內，每支球隊的前20次三分出手將計入三分。一但進攻方的20次出手
用完，後續的三分出手只能算2分。而到了第四節最後6分鐘，再恢復成正常的三分計分
，直到比賽結束。
Under these rules, an offense would need to be strategic and selective with
its 3s.
如果在這種規則下比賽，各隊對於三分出手的使用會更加謹慎。
A successful league remains in a constant state of vigilance about the chara
cter of its product and the pat of its trends. Scoring, and the 3-pointer i
n particular, revitalized NBA basketball at some of its most precarious mome
nts when it threatened to fall behind the NHL, then again two decades later
when it lost its aesthetic appeal.
一個成功的商業體育聯盟，應當始終關注自己的產品特性和變化。在NBA面臨落後於NHL
的危機時刻，三分球的出現曾經拯救了NBA，讓它在很長一段時間裡蓬勃發展。然而在2
0年後，當它失去審美吸引力時，聯盟就應該有所行動。
https://reurl.cc/qmGzWn
--
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