Why the Rays are Better than The Yankees...right now - 美國職棒

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本文請勿轉到MLB版以及洋基版，洩洩！其他版請告知
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有點久的文章
翻這個目的是可以讓大家看看預測和現在狀況有沒有差太多
之後會翻譯紅襪的預測

文章後面還有一些沒翻完，晚點有空會補上


出處：http://0rz.tw/493TR

Tuesday, April 08, 2008
Looking Forward to 2008: Tampa Bay Rays
Why the Rays are Better than The Yankees...right now
(in certain important facets of the game)

Those of us who recall the dying days of the Soviet Union - perestroika, the
shockingly successful Lithuanian independence movement, the ecstatic rupture
of the Berlin Wall - know the surprising satisfaction of an Evil Empire’s
fall. (Those too young to remember the Soviet chill and the pointless atomic
bomb drills in junior high school can consider the sudden downfall of Emperor
Palpatine and his Galactic Empire.)

讓我們來想想蘇聯在崩解時候的那一段時光：經濟改革，立陶宛獨立革命的成功及影響，
幹倒柏林圍牆的歡樂。對於邪惡帝國的瓦解帶給所有人歡樂。（那些太幼齒沒有辦法去想
像蘇聯政權的寒冷以及核子武器威脅的小鬼們可以去想想看在星際大戰裡面的白卜庭和他
的銀河帝國。）

Certainly, in the immediately previous years few predict its demise. Reagan’
s Berlin plea to “tear down this wall” was widely panned by liberal
publications, especially in skittish Europe, and the destruction of the rebel
base on the ice planet Hoth looked like a death knell for rebel resistance
against the Galactic Empire. Baseball's New York empire poached Jason Giambi,
Johnny Damon, Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson, and other superstars from rivals,
which, a the time, seemed ominous signs of the Yankees’ limitless funds and
continued dominance.

當然拉，這些事情發生在之前就已經有了徵兆。雷根弟弟呼喊著”哭倒這座牆吧！”被廣
泛著在民主國家傳頌著，特別是在那些牆頭草歐洲國家，就如同那些在Hoth冰凍星球對抗
著銀河帝國的反抗者們已經敲響了銀河帝國的喪鐘(註一)。棒球中的洋基帝國搶了Jason
Giambi, Johnny Damon, Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson以及其他競爭隊伍的明星，而在
此同時我們就已經看到了因為沒有任何薪資上限所帶來的惡兆。

註一：我對星際大戰不熟，有沒有誰能解釋一下這個梗？

Today, the Yankees are wounded (Pettitte, Matsui) and staggering (Mussina,
Giambi) and have the misfortune of playing in what is still baseball’s most
difficult division. To be sure, the Yankees’ talent prompts some to claim
that New York's offense is on par with baseball’s best – a reach that
ignores the injuries and declines that will surely beset their older players.
This aging core combines with the addition of an vengeful,
personality-challenged manager, the arrival of a bombastic and arrogant
owner, a dangerous reliance on three rookies to stabilize the pitching staff,
and the ongoing tragedy of New York’s irrational dislike of the best player
in baseball, a collective rejection that has this great talent often playing
tight as Scrooge McDuck. Because of all this, the Yankees have the potential
to provide awesome entertainment in the legacy of the America’s Most
Horrific Car Crashes-style cable series.

今天，洋基裡面傷的傷(Pettitte, Matsui)，步履蹣跚的蹣跚(Mussina, Giambi)，而且
更雖洨的是他們正好處在棒球最艱困的分水嶺中。要知道一點，洋基的能力使的某些人認
為他們的進攻能力仍然是最好的-當然這要忽略他們那些受傷 或者衰退的”優質”老傢伙
。這一批成熟(或老化)的中心打者串連在一起由一位具有復仇心，特殊的個人特質，誇大
且自傲的球團擁有者所掌控，並且依靠三名菜鳥投手帶給他們安定感，這一些東西夾雜在
一起使的目前的洋基看起來一點都不像是一隻最好的棒球隊，蒐集人家不要的過氣球星習
慣使得這之球隊表現起來往往就和Scrooge McDuck一樣(註二)。

註二：http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scrooge_McDuck
應該是唐老鴨之類的八

The Red Sox, on the other hand, have established themselves as baseball’s
elite without peer, both for current and future success. The Blue Jays have
been snake bit in ways that always hamstring teams with limited depth. They
seemed stronger this season, but continue their unlucky run with Scott Rolen
out for a month. Both teams, and especially the Sox, are likely to frustrate
the Yankees all season. This year's odd team out, the Orioles, are carrion.

另外一方面，紅襪隊對於他們自己的建軍方式則是大兩使用自家雜魚而不是依靠那些大牌
，這也是當前最夯的方法並且帶給他們成功。藍鳥之前看起來似乎在這一季能夠在你背後
很火的表現出來，但持續的雖洨以及Scott Rolen掛點了一個月之後則是處於跛腳而且半
殘廢狀態。這兩支球隊，特別是肥襪，可能未來幾季都能夠把洋基打的屁滾尿流。喔靠背
，少說一隻球隊喔，金鶯？那支球隊不是3A的嘛？

And then we have the Devil Rays, whose raft of early-round draft picks over
its first decade of play, plus their recent delightful run of successful
signings and trades, have finally (finally!) turned the team into an
intriguing, youthful mixture of power-speed athleticism. Whereas in the past,
the team would have been satisfied to find a hard-throwing high-school
teacher or two (or, worse, Shawn Camp and Ruddy Lugo) to fill off-season
needs, this year’s team has fully transformed both its traumatizing bullpen
and its horrific defense. Preseason computer simulations predict the Rays
have improved their pitching/defense combination by a remarkable 200 runs –
a 33-win improvement based on a 6-run/win formula. (Simplistic calculation,
yes, but the broader point remains.)

至少我們還有Rays（編按：原文還沒有改過來，我這邊自行幫他修正），這支球隊有蒐集
最近幾年來所有前段選秀好手的嗜好，加上最近一些不錯的簽約和交易，終於(終於喔！)
不是”那種球隊”了，也不是”軟柿子”，轉變成一隻吸引人且有力量及速度的年輕球隊
。在過去，這支球隊滿足於找那些hard-throwing的高中老師來(或者更糟，像Shawn Camp
和Ruddy Lugo)滿足季外的需求（註三），今年球隊完全將他們悲慘的牛棚以及讓人生畏
的防守改變過來。在季前的電腦預測中，Rays在他們的pitching/defense電腦模擬預測
Rays可多得200分;以6分一勝計算,可多33勝。

註三：這段話看有點沒有，有請達人

To accomplish this, the team practically turned over its entire starting
roster. At shortstop, the Rays brought in a defensive wizard, , who replaces
the overmatched Brendan Harris, creating a swing of more than 30 defensive
runs alone. Akinori Iwamura moves to 2B and replaces, primarily, the
defensively challenged B.J. Upton, whose speed, athletic ability and powerful
arm now makes him an exciting, but unproven, option for CF. Iwamura won six
Japanese Gold Gloves and was adequate at 3B for the Rays, though he did make
some outstanding defensive plays. He moves in preparation for Evan Longoria
who, for all the hullabaloo over his being assigned to AAA for a few weeks,
will soon be established at 3B for Tampa Bay for many years. Newcomer Cliff
Floyd was a defensive asset for the Cubs last season, whereas the departed
Delmon Young was a strong liability. Meanwhile, incumbent Carl Crawford is
one of the league’s elite outfield defenders. With the exception of the
weak-hitting Bartlett, the Rays' defensive transformation maintained their
offensive potential.

為了達成這一目標，球隊改變了他們的先發名單。在游擊手方面，Rays找來了Jason
Bartlett這一位防守魔術師來替代Brendan Harris，Bartlett可以替Rays檔下超過三十分
的分數。Akinori Iwamura被移防到二壘，用來替代在二壘防守上有問題的B. J. Upton，
這一位具有速度，運動能力，強力手臂的年輕選手，目前成為了一位極被關注，但還未證
實的未來之星，則被移防到了中外野。Iwamura過去在日本得過六次金手套獎且在Rays的
三壘防線表現的中規中矩，並有幾次節出的防守表現。Iwamura的移防也被認為是在剃
Evan Longoria做準備，他在幾個星期以前在一片喧鬧聲中被重新指派到3A，而他已經準
備好要在未來幾年擔任Rays主力三壘手的位置。新簽下的Cliff Floyd去年在小熊最大價
值在於他的防守能力，然而失去了Delmon Young對於Rays來說或許是一項很大的損失。同
時，Carl Crawford可以算是聯盟中最棒的外野手之一。搭配上被預期打擊表現不會太好
的Bartlett，這一些在防守上的轉變可以確保他們攻擊潛力不被消耗。

Meanwhile, the pitching staff also improved dramatically. In addition to
Bartlett the Delmon Young trade brought in Matt Garza, whose minor league
numbers were nearly identical to the Yankees’ overhyped Phil Hughes. Garza
allowed a fifth of a hit per inning more than Hughes over his minor league
career, and their K/9 and BB/9 rates were mirror images. Garza backs up Scott
Kazmir, the reigning AL strikeout leader who has so far defied scouts'
predictions that he will break down, and James Shields, another budding ace.
Shields’ breakout 2007 season was one of the Rays’ biggest surprises,
marred only by the Rays’ desperate bullpen problems. In Shields’ 30 starts,
the bullpen allowed 6 of Shields’ inherited runners to score (a low number
only because Shields was almost always replaced to start an inning), but it
allowed 57 of its own runners to score, a pattern that routinely turned 4-2
leads into 6-4 losses.

在此同時，投手的能力值也有顯著的提升。此外在Delmon Young交易中換過來的Matt
Garza，他可不是雜魚喔。他在小聯盟的成績和洋基的Phil Hughes相當。他在小聯盟生涯
中平均每局被打的安打數優於Hughes（註四），而他們的k/9以及BB/9跟本是一模一樣的
。Garza可以支援Kazmir，美聯三振的領先者。Kazmir在過去曾被許多球探唱衰說未來將
會崩潰，而他現在正在挑戰這些大仙的預言。還有James Shields，另一位正在萌芽的Ace
。Shields在去年的大爆發是Rays最大的驚奇，但他的好表現卻被去年糟糕的牛棚砸了不
少。在他三十場的先發裡面，牛棚只讓Shields留在壘上的跑者跑回來得到六分(這部分丟
分較低是因為他通常在該局開始時候就被換下去惹)，但牛棚卻自己丟了57分，所以我們
常看到一場原本4-2領先的球賽最後變成6-4輸球。

註四：allowed a fifth of a hit per inning指的是？

Shields’ Apr. 22 start against Cleveland was especially galling. Shields had
raised eyebrows with his early-season effectiveness but on this day he was
masterful. By the end of the eighth, he had given up two hits, one a Jhonny
Peralta homerun, against 12 strikeouts. He left with a 4-2 lead. Ninth inning
arrives. Shields is replaced by Brian “Flash Fire” Stokes. HBP. Out. Walk.
Single. 3-Run Home Run. Indians win.

Shields在4/22對上印地安人那場比賽更是難堪。Shields在季初時候才剛嶄露頭角，而在
這一場比賽他更是大殺四方。在第八局結束時候，他只被打了兩支安打，包括一隻
Peralta的全壘打，k了十二人。他下場時候還是4-2領先。在第九局時候，火球男Stokes
上來接替Shields。畜生球，出局，保送，一安，三打點全壘的，印地安人獲勝。

This happened constantly, and the constant bullpen meltdowns (you would have
to go back to the ‘50s to find a worse collective bullpen performance)
quickly drained the energy from the season. This obscured not only Shields’
emergence but also the arrival of the Rays’ young hitters. Crawford, whose
OBP reached .350 for the first time, emerged into an elite leadoff hitter.
B.J. Upton’s development was faster than Crawford’s, with Upton posting a
134 OPS (including a .386 OBP) as a 22-year-old, 17 points higher than
Crawford’s career high. But the man with the magic bat last season, and one
of the few Devil Rays to swing out of obscurity with such speed, was Carlos
Pena. Pena's minor league numbers showed patience and a talent for extra base
hits. In 2002, Billy Beane snatched him from Texas, then quickly flipped him
with Jeremy Bonderman to Detroit in a three-way trade that foisted Jared
Weaver on the Yankees. (Oakland got Ted Lilly.) For three-plus seasons in
Detroit, Pena disappointed with low batting averages and unremarkable power.

這種狀況常常發生，牛棚隨時的膛炸把球隊所累積起來的能量消耗殆盡（你大概要回到50
年代才看的到這種歡樂牛棚）。這種讓人失去光芒的狀況不只發生在Shields身上，也如
同傳染病一樣傳到年輕打者身上。Crawford他的OBP在一開始時候可以到達0.350，他是一
個表現良好的首棒打者。Upton的成長更是快過於Crawford，以22歲年紀便有著134 OPS (
還有0.386 OBP)比Crawford生涯成績還要高出17個百分點。但去年有一個打者他大概吃了
打擊果實，也是少數去年能夠在Devil Rays發光發熱的選手，他是Carlos Pena。他在小
聯盟時期數據已經表現出他那種打擊時候的耐心以及長打能力。在2002年時候，豆爺從遊
騎兵手上把他給偷了過來，然後在一個三方交易中迅速把他和Bonderman換到了老虎且把
Jered Weaver丟到洋基去(運動家得到ted Lilly)。在老虎的三個球季，Pena表現讓人失
望，打擊率低，爆發力也不見了。

After bouncing around the AL East in 2006, the phenom-turned-journeyman
failed to make the Devil Rays out of spring training last year, only to be
called up before Opening Day due to injury. By May, Pena was hitting .213,
then U-turned to rewrite the Rays’ record book with an out-of-nowhere career
year that earned him MVP votes and the AL Comeback Player of the Year Award.
The 2008 season will show whether Pena is more Luis Gonzales or Brady
Anderson, but he'll always be the man who took Aubrey Huff's team home run
record away.

經歷了06年在美東的活躍，這位優秀的打工學徒在春訓時候獲得了Devil Rays的邀請，但
因為受傷原因一直到開幕之前才被拉上來。在五月時候，Pena打擊率0.213，但接著開始
大變身並以生涯最佳表現改寫Devil Rays的記錄本。這位不知道從哪邊冒出來（
out-of-nowhere）的打者為自己掙得了MVP票選以及美聯年度最佳東山再起獎。在08年咱
們可以看看Pena會比較像Luis Gonzales或Brady Anderson，但無論如何，他已經改寫了
Aubrey Huff的隊史記錄。

The increased competitiveness of the Rays' Major League team is backed by a
pipeline of outstanding talent on the way – especially a number of pitchers
who are superior to the Yankees’ touted prospects, including the overhyped
Joba Chamberlain, who is so good that he can’t be trusted to start a game at
the moment. An honest comparison of righties Chamberlain, Phil Hughes, and
Ian Kennedy to the Rays top three pitching prospects – David Price, Wade
Davis, and Jake McGee – must include the fact that Price and Davis are
unhittable power lefties, and also ignores that Jeff Niemann is closer to the
Show.

Rays在大聯盟中的競爭力已經開漸漸回歸到他們傑出潛力所該有的表現中-特別是那幾位
比洋基宣稱深不見底農場農作物還要優秀的投手，包括了自high過頭(overhype)的Joba
Chamberlain，他是如此優秀以致於不能被馬上被信任的放在先發位置(科科，好酸)。讓
我們來誠實的比較Chamberlain, Phil Hughes以及Ian Kennedy和Rays的三個prospects-
David Price, Wade Davis和Jake McGee-必須瞭解到一點，Price和Davis都是有讓人連球
都摸不到的強力左投，同時這邊也還沒有把Niemann給放進來呦。

Three years from now could find the dominant Rays pitching staff the best in
baseball. Today, however, the Rays' pitchers are already better than New
York's. Using Baseball Prospectus's PECOTA projections, considered the most
accurate available, the outstanding Replacement Level Yankees Weblog shows
the Rays allowing six runs fewer than the Yankees this season. Likewise,
David Pinto used PECOTA to show that the Rays' starters, overall, project to
have a lower ERA than the Yankees starters. Although the 24-year-old Kazmir
might be the most experienced of Rays' 5-man rotation (which will include, in
addition to Shields and Garza, young Andy Sonnanstine and either Jason Hammel
or the former Future Star Edwin Jackson), all five of the projected starters
are expected to have more experience in the majors than the key trio of
rookie Yankees mentioned above. In the bullpen, the Yankees have the peerless
Mariano Rivera, but the Rays bullpen also has more this-year potential than
the rest of the Yankees', with the Rays' no-name guys like Juan Salas and
Trever Miller as good as or better than the Yankees' no-name guys like Jeff
Karstens and Matt DeSalvo. This assumes, of course, that key bullpen players
like 38-year-olds Troy Percival and Al Reyes can hold up. A major bullpen
injury for the Rays brings the whole house down.

Although the Rays’ pitching already outstrips the Yankees, the hitting still
lags when compared head-to-head, though not as much as many think. At
catcher, New York has a possible Hall-of-Famer in Jorge Posada. Rays catcher
Dioner Navarro had his first at bat in majors at age 20, an extraordinarily
young age for the position. Now 24, he has the youth and talent to improve
substantially on his 70 OPS+ from 2007. Even so, he’s a dice roll. Posada is
far better today but the gap could close somewhat in 2008. At first base, a
Pena encore of last season would vastly outperform the plummeting Jason
Giambi and his platoon partner Wilson Betemit, a utilityman who hits like
one. The Yankees have a huge advantage at shortstop and third base, both of
which are manned by Hall of Famers still in their primes, Bartlett's defense
and Longoria's promise notwithstanding. At second base, the Yankees' Robinson
Cano has become a legitimately dangerous hitter, but the jury is still out on
Iwamura. Iwamura battled freak injuries last season that limited him to fewer
than 500 at bats. In a full season's play, the outstanding Iwamura should
meet Cano's contributions, especially when defense is taken into account. In
the outfield, Crawford is better than any Yankee outfielder, showing far more
speed and defensive ability than Johnny Damon, more power and contact hitting
ability than the present-day Bobby Abreu, and more all-around ability than
Melky Cabrera. Only the declining and injury-prone Hideki Matsui has had
marginally superior hitting numbers to Crawford's 2008, but Crawford blows
past Matsui on the basepaths and sparks the team. In terms of pure hitting,
Upton was better as a rookie than Crawford or any Yankee outfielder, and he
will only get better. In the other outfield position, Cliff Floyd/Jonny
Gomes/Eric Hinske all have the ability to put up nice numbers.

Although the superiority of the Yankees at short, third, and catcher is
profound, the Rays have pulled even or ahead of New York at all other
offensive positions and in the pitching staff as a whole. The gap between the
two teams is not large. The Replacement Level Yankees Weblog's PECOTA-based
project gave the Rays a 27% likelihood of a playoff spot, defining the term
"puncher's chance." Everyone who has paid attention to the Rays' rise knows
the outrageous flood of young talent still to come over the next few years,
but with the recent five-year run of out-of-nowhere teams competing for the
World Series, no one should discount the Rays' chances this season.


--
「寫下這些日記的人，在重新踏上阿根廷的土地時，就已經死去。我，已經不再是我。」

---Che Guevara---

--