Top 10 Prospects - 美國職棒

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1. Lars Anderson - 1B - DOB: 09/25/87 - ETA: April 2010
.317/.408/.513, 13 HR, 50 RBI, 64/46 K/BB, 0 SB in 306 AB (A+ Lancaster)
.316/.436/.526, 5 HR, 30 RBI, 43/29 K/BB, 1 SB in 133 AB (AA Portland)

It's hard to get excited about any numbers generated at Lancaster, probably
the top environment for hitters in the minors, but Anderson's stats got even
better in a 41-game stint in Double-A during the second half. It was an
extremely impressive showing for a 20-year-old, and he enters 2009 as the
game's top first base prospect as a result. Anderson was an 18th-round pick
in 2006, but that's because most assumed he was going to college. The Red Sox
signed him for second-round money, and he's shaping up as a huge bargain with
his emerging power and excellent on-base skills. With the way he's coming
along, he might even be a possibility to help out if injuries strike Kevin
Youkilis or Mike Lowell in the second half of the season. He's not an option
anywhere other than first base and he doesn't stand out defensively there,
but he could be an All-Star in time.


2. Michael Bowden - RHP - DOB: 09/09/86 - ETA: Aug. 2009
9-4, 2.33 ERA, 72 H, 101/24 K/BB in 104 1/3 IP (AA Portland)
0-3, 3.38 ERA, 40 H, 29/5 K/BB in 40 IP (AAA Pawtucket)
1-0, 3.60 ERA, 7 H, 3/1 K/BB in 5 IP (Boston)

Bowden stumbled a bit after moving up to Double-A in 2007, but he quickly
mastered the level last season, limiting hitters to a .192 average and
striking out four for every one he walked. He was nearly as good in Triple-A,
and he picked up a win in his lone major league start in August. As good as
his command is, he's ready to hold down a rotation spot now. Still, the Red
Sox will have the luxury of sending him back to Triple-A for a while longer.
Bowden throws in the low-90s and has a pretty good curveball. He probably
won't be a big strikeout guy in the majors, but he has enough on his pitches
to make it as a No. 3 starter.


3. Junichi Tazawa - RHP - DOB: 06/06/86 - ETA: June 2010

The 0.80 ERA that Tazawa posted in an industrial league in Japan is so off
the charts it can hardly be taken seriously, and the scouting reports are
truly all over the place. What we do know is that the Red Sox scouted him
several times and were willing to give him $3.3 million, and it's believed
the Rangers and Braves went even higher. That's good enough to justify the
third spot on a Red Sox list that, with four of last year's top six
graduating, is weaker than it's been in quite some time. While early reports
had Tazawa hitting 95-97 mph in games, it's now pretty well established that
he's more of a low-90s guy. His slider is supposed to be his best secondary
pitch. The Red Sox are expected to put him in Double-A and groom him as a
starter initially. If he's called on this year, it would likely to be work
out of the pen.


4. Daniel Bard - RHP - DOB: 06/25/85 - ETA: Aug. 2009
1-0, 0 Sv, 0.64 ERA, 12 H, 43/4 K/BB in 28 IP (A- Greenville)
4-1, 7 Sv, 1.99 ERA, 30 H, 64/26 K/BB in 49 2/3 IP (AA Portland)

Bard, a 2006 first-round pick, was a bust as a starter, going 3-7 with a 7.08
ERA and a 48/78 K/BB in 75 IP for two A-ball teams in 2007. However, he
showed plenty of promise after a move to the pen in the Hawaiian Winter
League and kept it going in the minors last year, striking out 107 and
allowing just 42 hits in 77 2/3 innings. Bard regularly throws in the
high-90s, and he records most of his strikeouts with his fastball. It's still
his only above average pitch at the moment, but he has made some progress
with his slider. His changeup has been largely missing in action since the
move to the pen. If he continues to improve his command, then he should
become a closer someday. Of course, the Red Sox already have one of them,
which is why Bard's name is always one of the first to come up when the team
looks to make a deal.


5. Ryan Kalish - OF - DOB: 03/28/88 - ETA: 2012
.281/.376/.356, 3 HR, 32 RBI, 76/53 K/BB, 18 SB in 360 AB (A- Greenville)
.233/.305/.397, 2 HR, 14 RBI, 23/8 K/BB, 1 SB in 73 AB (A+ Lancaster)

More was expected of Kalish after he hit .368/.471/.540 in 87 at-bats in the
New York-Penn League in 2007, but he was slow to recover from surgery to
repair a broken hamate bone suffered the previous July. The power-sapping
injury kept him out of Greenville's lineup until late April, and he went on
to slug just .363 over the course of the year. If he's back at full strength
this season, he could break through at high-A Salem. Kalish combines a very
good eye at the plate with a line-drive swing that should produce plenty of
doubles and maybe 15 homers per year in his prime. He's more likely to end up
in right field than stay in center, but he'd be a strong defender there.


6. Casey Kelly - SS/RHP - DOB: 10/04/89 - ETA: 2013
.173/.229/.255, 1 HR, 9 RBI, 34/6 K/BB, 1 SB in 98 AB (R GCL Red Sox)
.344/.344/.563, 0 HR, 4 RBI, 8/0 K/BB, 0 SB in 32 AB (SS-A Lowell)

The Red Sox clearly landed a big-time talent when they got Kelly with the
30th pick in the 2008 draft. Now they just have to figure out what to do with
him. Kelly, who had a chance to play quarterback at Tennessee, opened his pro
career as a shortstop and would prefer to stay there. However, the Red Sox
like him more on the mound and will use him there at the start of 2009. The
plan is for him to get at least a half-season in as a pitcher and then move
back to shortstop, which would limit the wear to his arm if nothing else.
Kelly throws 91-94 mph and already has a surprisingly decent changeup for
someone with little pitching experience. Since he might not have the range to
last at shortstop anyway, it'd probably be for the best if he focused on
pitching.


7. Josh Reddick - OF - DOB: 02/19/87 - ETA: 2011
.340/.397/.491, 0 HR, 9 RBI, 8/5 K/BB, 2 SB in 53 AB (A- Greenville)
.343/.375/.593, 17 HR, 57 RBI, 49/17 K/BB, 9 SB in 312 AB (A+ Lancaster)
.214/.290/.436, 6 HR, 25 RBI, 25/12 K/BB, 3 SB in 117 AB (AA Portland)
.189/.210/.389, 5 HR, 15 RBI, 36/3 K/BB, 0 SB in 95 AB (AFL)

Sort of the new Brandon Moss, Reddick isn't an ideal Red Sox prospect. He
makes a lot of contact, but his power ceiling is limited and he doesn't walk
very often. Reddick does have the greater upside of the two. He's a fine
defensive right fielder. Playing at Lancaster certainly inflated his numbers,
but his .311/.356/.544 line as a 21-year-old is plenty impressive anyway.
Less encouraging was his showing in the Arizona Fall League, as he hit just
.189 with an abysmal 36/3 K/BB ratio. Reddick hasn't struck out particularly
often elsewhere, and it's possible he'll develop into a legitimate .290-.300
hitter in the majors. However, that still might not make him an above average
regular.


8. Michael Almanzar - 3B - DOB: 12/02/90 - ETA: 2014
.348/.414/.472, 1 HR, 11 RBI, 15/8 K/BB, 3 SB in 89 AB (R GCL Red Sox)
.207/.238/.314, 2 HR, 11 RBI, 39/5 K/BB, 0 SB in 140 AB (A- Greenville)

Almanzar was possibly the best prospect to come out of the Dominican Republic
in 2007, and the Red Sox signed him for $1.5 million. The son of former major
league reliever Carlos Almanzar made his pro debut as a 17-year-old last
season and made a big impression in 23 games in the GCL before being
overmatched by more mature Sally League pitchers. A former shortstop, he has
the tools to handle third base, though he could someday require a move to the
outfield. Almanzar is very much a raw talent, but scouts believe he'll
develop 30-homer power. Besides Anderson, he's the one position player in the
Boston organization with a chance of developing into a star.


9. Nick Hagadone - LHP - DOB: 01/01/86 - ETA: 2011
1-1, 0.00 ERA, 5 H, 12/6 K/BB in 10 IP (A- Greenville)

Hagadone, Boston's first pick in the 2007 draft (55th overall), moves up two
spots this year even after undergoing Tommy John surgery last June. The
Washington product has reportedly made strong progress and should be ready to
resume pitching in the first half of the season. Hagadone can throw in the
mid-90s, but he most consistently works at 91-94 mph. His slider is a strong
second pitch. Whether his changeup comes along will go a long way towards
determining whether he lasts as a starter. He could prove to be an excellent
reliever since he'd likely be in the mid-90s more regularly.


10. Ryan Westmoreland - OF - DOB: 04/27/90 - ETA: 2014

With a scholarship to Vanderbilt awaiting him, Westmoreland was known to be a
very tough sign in the 2008 draft. The Red Sox may have been the only team
with a chance of inking the Rhode Island native, and they did get him under
contract for late first-round money after making him a fifth-round pick.
Westmoreland was a stud on the mound and at the plate in high school, but
like most, the Red Sox preferred him as an outfielder. He has a surprisingly
advanced approach for someone still very inexperienced, and he should pack
25-homer power in time. Just don't expect him to move quickly at all. He's
already been set back by shoulder surgery, which will cost him at least the
first couple of months of 2009.


Next five: RHP Stolmy Pimentel, SS Yamaico Navarro, RHP Charlie Zink, RHP
Bryan Price, C George Kottaras


That I may be the only one who still considers Zink and Kottaras prospects
makes Boston's third five look worse than it is. The Red Sox don't have as
many top-150 prospects as they've had in recent years, but they still have
more intriguing players in the 10-30 range than most organizations do. …
Pimentel has plenty of polish for an 18-year-old and could develop into a
third or fourth starter. … Navarro hit .304/.359/.447 for two A-ball teams
in his age 20 season and could move up to Double-A this year. … Zink just
cleared waivers despite going 14-6 with a 2.84 ERA in Triple-A last season.
It's true that he's not ready yet, but the 29-year-old knuckleballer still
has a better chance at having a 10-year career than the vast majority of
these 11-15 prospects.

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