SportingNews 2009 Red Sox preview - 美國職棒

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Boston Red Sox preview by Chris Bahr



The Red Sox couldn't catch the Rays in the A.L. East during the regular season,
and their ALCS comeback fell a game short when Tampa Bay knocked off the
defending World Series champions in a thrilling Game 7. Boston didn't
drastically change its roster and is counting on several of its key
contributors to return to health. In fact, the Red Sox's biggest offseason move
was one they didn't make. Their failure to sign Mark Teixeira could prove
costly--especially considering he joined the hated (and improved) Yankees.



THREE QUESTIONS


1. Is David Ortiz in the early stages of decline? What about some of his
teammates?


Big Papi wasn't himself last season, especially after Manny Ramirez was dealt
at the trading deadline. Ortiz missed nearly two months because of a wrist
injury, which affected him even after he returned. He is only 33, but as was
the case with former Red Sox MVP Mo Vaughn, Ortiz's weight eventually will be a
concern (though he has slimmed down a bit). Still, it's tough to find a more
clutch hitter this decade, and a healthy Ortiz is capable of smashing 40-50
homers--if teams pitch to him.


Third baseman Mike Lowell is coming of hip surgery, and oft-injured outfielder
J.D. Drew played in only 16 games after July last season. Josh Beckett battled
oblique problems, and Tim Wakefield's troublesome shoulder acted up late.
Catcher Jason Varitek was re-signed mainly for his leadership and ability to
handle the pitching staff, but his offense has tanked.



2. Will the veteran pitching additions pay off?


While the Yankees were busy handing out monstrous deals, Red Sox general
manager Theo Epstein was bargain hunting. Boston agreed to one-year deals with
John Smoltz, Brad Penny and Takashi Saito (team option for 2010). Smoltz is
recovering from major shoulder surgery in June, but with rotation depth, the
Red Sox can bring him along slowly. Penny also battled shoulder problems last
season, posting the highest ERA (6.27) of his career. Saito was a lights-out
stopper (63-for-69 in saves chances in 2006-07) for the Dodgers before elbow
problems limited him to just six appearances after the All-Star break in 2008.


If the team can hit big on either Penny or Smoltz--and it should--and get
decent production from Saito, the risks will pay off.



3. Which is the real Jacoby Ellsbury?


Ellsbury burst onto the scene late in 2007, hitting .361 with three homers, 17
RBIs, 16 runs scored and 8 steals in the regular season's final month. He was
even better in that postseason, eventually taking over for Coco Crisp as
Boston's center fielder. Aside from his 50 steals, Ellsbury struggled for most
of the 2008 regular season. And in the postseason, he hit just .188 and
eventually lost his starting spot to Crisp. Ellsbury is penciled in as the Red
Sox's leadoff man--he had just a .324 on-base percentage in that spot last
season--and is being counted on to return to '07 form. Crisp, dealt to the
Royals this offseason, is no longer around.



Projected lineup

1. CF Jacoby Ellsbury. Led A.L. in steals, but regressed at plate.

2. 2B Dustin Pedroia. MVP tied for MLB lead with 213 hits.

3. DH David Ortiz. Wrist injury sapped his power.

4. 1B Kevin Youkilis. Coming off career year; must give opposition reason to
pitch to Ortiz.

5. LF Jason Bay. Had 46 RBIs in 60 games with Boston (including playoffs).

6. RF J.D. Drew. Twelve of his 19 homers came in June.

7. 3B Mike Lowell. Clutch bat, when healthy.

8. C Jason Varitek. Led team with 122 Ks in '08.

9. SS Jed Lowrie/Julio Lugo. Lowrie was better at plate, in field.



Projected rotation

1. RHP Josh Beckett. Slumped in '08, bothered by oblique injury.

2. LHP Jon Lester. No-hit artist blossoming into an ace.

3. RHP Daisuke Matsuzaka. Led A.L. with 94 walks, but usually escaped trouble.

4. RHP Tim Wakefield. Knuckler was victim of poor run support.

5. RHP Brad Penny. Won 16 games in '06 and '07.



Closer

Jonathan Papelbon, RHP Is 113-for-128 in save chances since '06.



GRADES


Offense: B. Only the Rangers and Cubs scored more runs than the Red Sox last
season, and Boston was tops in OBP (.358). But questions linger. Are Pedroia
and Youkilis due for a letdown? Will Ortiz, Lowell and Drew stay healthy? Can
Ellsbury handle the leadoff role? Is Varitek washed-up offensively?


Pitching: A. Few teams can match Boston's starting five, and that doesn't even
include Smoltz or youngsters Clay Buchholz (no-hitter in 2007), Michael Bowden
(prized prospect) or Justin Masterson (now in a setup role). Papelbon is an
elite closer, and Masterson, Saito, Hideki Okajima, Ramon Ramirez and Manny
Delcarmen form a solid relief corps.


Bench: B. If new arrival Rocco Baldelli can stay healthy, he is a heck of a
fourth outfielder. Kotsay (back surgery) will begin the season on the disabled
list, leaving Brad Wilkerson as a corner infield/outfield option. Lugo or
Lowrie will serve as a reserve infielder, but backup catcher is a concern (can
Josh Bard catch a knuckleball?).


Manager: A. You can't argue with a resume that includes four playoff
appearances and two World Series titles in five years. Terry Francona knows how
to keep his team on top and keep his team loose. His players like him, respect
him and play hard for him. Plus, Francona won't have the Manny headache to
worry about in 2009.


Sporting News prediction: In what should be an outstanding A.L. East race,
Boston will finish in an all-too-familiar place: behind the Yankees. Still, it
will be good enough for the wild card.



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