Prospect Retrospective: David Ortiz - 美國職棒

Prospect Retrospective: David Ortiz

http://t.co/DIvjdBmqc8 By John Sickels on Sep 8 2013, 1:42

http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/3175745/davidarias.png (附圖一張)

Boston Red Sox designated hitter David Ortiz pushed past 2,000 hits this past
week. At age 37, he's having one of the best seasons of his career, hitting
.311/.394/.559 with an OPS+ of 155 through 120 games. For all the greatness
of the last decade, his early run in the majors wasn't a smooth one. He was
certainly an interesting prospect, though, so let's look how Big Papi fared
in the minors with today's Prospect Retrospective.

波士頓紅襪指定打擊David Ortiz在這個禮拜打出生涯第2000支安打。37歲的他又打出
特別亮眼的一季，120場比賽.311/.394/.559、155 OPS+。在過去十年時間的所有巨星
之中，老爹生涯前期顯得特別的不順遂。因此我們就來回顧一下老爹的農場時期。

A lot of people don't realize this, but David Ortiz began his career in the
Seattle Mariners system, signed as a free agent in 1992 out of the Dominican
Republic. He hit .246/.309/.299 as an 18-year-old in the Arizona Rookie
League in 1994, hardly impressive performance. But he improved to
.322/.409/.538 repeating he AZL at age 19. At that point, he would have rated
as a Grade C prospect, needing to show he could repeat this at higher levels.
At the time, Ortiz was known as "David Arias."

很多人依然不曉得老爹是在西雅圖水手的農場開啟職棒生涯的─1992年水手簽下這位多明
尼加的自由球員。1994年，18歲的老爹在Arizona Rookie League只繳出.246/.309/.299
的平庸成績，但19歲在AZL的球季則是進步到.322/.409/.538。當時的他大概是等級C的
新秀，還必須在高階層級複製成績才能證明自己。還有，那時的老爹是"David Arias."

Ortiz/Arias moved up to Class A Wisconsin in 1996, performing very well,
hitting .322/.391/.511 with 18 homers, 52 walks, 108 strikeouts in 129 games,
485 at-bats. At age 20, this is very credible for a guy making his
full-season debut. Baseball America was impressed enough to rate him as the
Number Six prospect in the Midwest League.

Ortiz(Arias)在1996年升上Wisconsin (A)，表現非常的好(129場比賽，485 AB中打出
.322/.391/.511、18 HR、52 BB、 108K)；這對於年僅20歲、剛挑戰完整球季的球員來說
是個很不可思議的成績。Baseball America對他的印象很深刻，把老爹列為 Midwest
League第六名。

Despite his excellent season, the Mariners, looking for veteran hitting help,
traded him to the Twins for Dave Hollins in the off-season. I gave him a
Grade B in my 1997 book, noting that the Twins got a good deal and that the
Mariners would probably regret trading Arias.

雖然打出好表現，但是水手因為欠缺老將的火力而選擇在休賽期間拿去跟雙城換 Dave
Hollins。1997年的手冊中，我將老爹列為B級新秀，並加註雙城完成了一筆好交易，水手
未來可能會後悔當時將這位Arias送走。

In the spring of `97, David started going by Ortiz rather than Arias, after
he brought the error with his name to Minnesota's attention. He was also nine
months younger than listed in his official records. He rose rapidly through
the Twins farm system that year, hitting .331/.390/.566 in 61 games for Class
A Fort Myers, then .322/.376/.585 in 69 games for Double-A New Britain. He
appeared in 15 games for the Twins late in the season, hitting .327. I gave
him a Grade B+, rating him as the Number 49 prospect overall in baseball
heading into '98. This was a fast rise, going from A-ball to the majors in
less than a year and hitting well at every level.

1997年春天，老爹的名字從David Arias改成David Ortiz，而在改名事件引發注目之後，
他的實際年齡也下修了九個月。他在雙城小聯盟一飛沖天，Fort Myers (A)的61場
.331/.390/.566，New Britain (AA)的69場.322/.376/.585；最後在雙城出賽15場，打擊
率.327。這時我將老爹評為B+，1998年季前名中名列49名。老爹踩著風火輪，一年之內從
1A衝上大聯盟，而且每一級都打出好成績。

Although his power was impressive, there were concerns about his defense, his
weight, and a big swing that didn't fit into Minnesota's contact-oriented
philosophy. Ortiz spent most of '98 with the Twins, hitting .277/.371/.446 in
86 games, OPS+111, quite solid for age 22. The bat was potent, but Twins
manager Tom Kelly rode Ortiz about his glovework and publicly complained
about his strikeouts. Some Twins fans felt that Ortiz was being treated
unfairly, while others agreed with Kelly's critique.

雖然老爹的砲瓦很驚人，但是防守、體重和豪邁揮棒(和雙城的contact為上哲學不吻合)
都是隱憂。老爹在1998年球季大多都留在雙城，86場比賽.277/.371/.446、111 OPS+，
對於22歲的人來說很不錯。雖然揮棒有力，但是雙城總教練Tom Kelly公開批評老爹的守
備和三振數。有些雙城迷認為這對老爹不公平，但是也有支持Kelly的一派。

Ortiz spent most of '99 exiled back to the minors, hitting .315/.415/.590
with 30 homers for Triple-A Salt Lake and playing just 10 games in the
majors. He regained his job with the Twins in '00 and was reasonably
effective for three seasons, although not outstanding, bothered by nagging
injuries. Overall, he hit .265/.344/.473 those three seasons with Minnesota,
with an OPS+ of 109. This included a .272/.332/.500 line with 20 homers, 120
OPS+ in '02. The Twins released him anyway, wanting to save money and seeing
him as a guy who didn't really fit in.

1999年老爹幾乎都蹲在Salt Lake (AAA)練功，打出.315/.415/.590、30HR卻只獲得10場
的大聯盟上場機會。2000年重回雙城，表現還不差但也因為傷勢問題而無法打出亮眼成績
。這三季下來.265/.344/.473、109 OPS+；其中2002年.272/.332/.500、20 HR，OPS+達
到120。不過雙城還是為了省錢把不適合雙城的老爹釋出。

Signed by the Red Sox as a free agent, he broke out with a .288/.369/.592
season, 31 homers, 144 OPS+. He was 27 years old, the classic season for a
dramatic improvement. With a new organization that wasn't paranoid about
strikeouts, he was able to unleash his natural swing and raw power.

紅襪簽下老爹後，老爹打出爆發性的成績：.288/.369/.592、31 HR、144 OPS+，典型的
27歲爆發。這支球隊不在意三振問題，老爹的砲瓦和豪邁揮棒也得以解放。

"Something in my swing was not right in Minnesota. I could never hit for
power. Whenever I took a big swing, they'd say to me, ‘Hey, hey, what are
you doing?' So I said, ‘You want me to hit like a little bitch, then I
will.'"

「我在雙城時期的揮棒就是不對，我永遠沒辦法打出力量。每次我來個大揮棒，他們就會
『嘿，嘿，你在幹什麼』，我就說你是想要我像小婊子那樣揮棒的話，我就會照做。」

As you likely know, he also tested positive for PEDs in 2003 as part of a
general survey of the MLB player population. This was revealed in 2009 and to
this day Ortiz denies having taken steroids. The details of the '03 tests are
still murky, with over 100 players testing positive for a variety of
different substances. Whatever was going on in '03, Ortiz has tested negative
ever since, passing several tests every season. With clean tests for a decade
now, I think he has to get the benefit of the doubt. Certainly a presumption
of guilt is unjustified.

如大家所知，2003年藥檢普查中老爹的PED檢測呈陽性，這件事在2009年被爆料出來但是
老爹否認這件事。2003年的藥檢普查依然是個謎團，超過100位球員檢測出各種藥物。不
過不管2003年怎樣，老爹在接下來的藥檢都全數通過。經過十年來的檢測，我想也該還給
老爹清白了─有罪推定是不對的。

I don't regard Ortiz's performance boost in 2003 as particularly suspicious.
He was 27, the classic breakout age. He was with a new team that wasn't
trying to turn him into a contact hitter, and his minor league performances
had always shown he was capable of being outstanding. He dominated minor
league pitching; his major league performance didn't just come out of nowhere
unexpectedly, and even in Minnesota he had periods of excellent production.

我不會視2003年的爆發為疑點，因為27歲是典型的爆發年齡、他在一個沒有試圖把他喬成
contact hitter的新球團、以及秀出他驚人能力的小聯盟成績說明了一切：他足以電爆
小聯盟打者，他的大聯盟成績不是天上掉下來的。就算在雙城期間也有不差的產能。

Overall, Ortiz is certainly one of the best DHs in history, hitting
.287/.381/.548, OPS+ 139, WAR 40.4. His 40.4 WAR ranks him 10th All-time
among players who spent the majority of their career at DH, in the
neighborhood of Jose Canseco (42.1) Tony Oliva (40.7), Harold Baines (38.5),
and Chili Davis (37.9). To this point in his career, his best Sim Score comps
are Carlos Delgado, Fred McGriff, Lance Berkman, Willie Stargell, Jason
Giambi, Paul Konerko, Willie McCovey, Frank Thomas, Gil Hodges, and Duke
Snider.

整體來說，老爹是歷史上數一數二的指定打擊，DH生涯.287/.381/.548、OPS+ 139、
40.4 WAR。他的40.4 WAR名列DH第十，成績接近的球員包含Jose Canseco (42.1) ,
Tony Oliva (40.7), Harold Baines (38.5) 和 Chili Davis (37.9)。算到今日為止
，模擬成績可以和 Carlos Delgado, Fred McGriff, Lance Berkman, Willie
Stargell, Jason Giambi, Paul Konerko, Willie McCovey, Frank Thomas, Gil Hodges
, 與 Duke Snider匹敵。

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"HARD WORK BEATS TALENT
WHEN TALENT FAILS TO WORK HARD."

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