Free Agent Profile: Max Scherzer - 美國職棒

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/11/free-agent-profile-max-scherzer.html

2013 Cy Young award winner Max Scherzer is the prize of the free agent market
after another superb season. He’s a strikeout machine with a strong record
of durability, and agent Scott Boras will be seeking a precedent-setting
contract.

前年美聯賽揚獎得主Max Scherzer是FA市場中的頭獎

他不但是個三振機器 而且非常耐投

他的經紀人Boras準備幫他拿到一份破紀錄的大合約


Strengths/Pros 優勢

Scherzer, 30, posted a 3.02 ERA over 434 2/3 regular season innings from
2013-14. In 2013, he went 21-3 with a 2.90 ERA and 240 strikeouts for the
Tigers and won the AL Cy Young award easily. He made the All-Star team in
both years.

30歲的Scherzer過去兩季投了434 2/3局

前年他投出21勝3敗 防禦率2.90 240次三振

率領老虎拿下美聯冠軍 也輕易在賽揚票選中名列第一

過去兩年他都獲選進入明星賽


Scherzer has been one of the game
’s most dominant starting pitchers since 2012. He has a 10.5 K/9 over that
period, second among qualified starters in all of baseball. His ranking is
the same in K%; he’s whiffed 28.6% of batters faced during that time. He’s
tallied 231 or more strikeouts in each of the past three seasons and leads
all of baseball with 723 punchouts over that time. Scherzer also has good
control, with a 2.5 BB/9 over the past two seasons. He uses a four-seam
fastball and a change-up, also employing a slider against righties and a
curveball against lefties.

他是2012年以來最具宰制力的先發投手之一

期間每九局投出10.5次三振在所有先發投手中排第二

打者面對他的揮空率高達28.6%

過去三季每季至少投出231次三振 合計723K領先全大聯盟

也有良好的控球 BB/9在過去兩季只有2.5

主要武器包括四縫線速球 變速球 對右打搭配滑球 對左打則多用曲球



Batters made contact on only 74.5% of Scherzer’s pitches from 2012-14, third
best in baseball among qualified starters. Batters swung and missed on 11.9%
of Scherzer’s pitches, which ranked fourth.

在過去三年間 打者面對他只有74.5%的機率能把球打進場內

這個數據在全大聯盟的先發投手裡排第三低

打者揮空率11.9% 則是全大聯盟第四


Skill-Interactive ERA (SIERA) is the latest ERA estimator, from Matt Swartz.
Scherzer’s 2.94 SIERA ranks eighth among qualified starters over the last
two seasons. His actual ERA of 3.02 is in line with that, and ranks 11th.

他過去兩季的2.94 SIERA 在所有先發投手裡排第八

防禦率3.02則是排名第11


How about durability? Scherzer hasn’t been on the disabled list since a
short stint in 2009. Even that year he made 30 starts, a number he exceeded
in every subsequent season. His 434 2/3 innings from 2013-14 ranks sixth in
baseball, and he tossed another 29 2/3 frames in the postseason. Still,
Boras has pointed out that Scherzer has less wear and tear on his arm than
Jon Lester and James Shields. This is mainly because Lester and Shields
signed early-career extensions giving up free agent years, and Scherzer did
not.

自2009年後 他從沒進過DL 而該年他仍然先發了30場 之後每年都超過這個數字

他過去兩年吃了434 2/3局 在全聯盟排第四 還另外在季後賽投了29 2/3局

Boras也指出Scherzer在手臂的使用量上低於Lester跟Shields

因為後兩者都曾經簽下延長合約 涵蓋了一部分的FA年限


Put it all together, and Scherzer is an ace, one of the best pitchers in the
game. He’s tallied 12.0 wins above replacement over the last two seasons,
tied with Felix Hernandez for second in MLB. Clayton Kershaw is the best,
but Scherzer is in the conversation for second-best.

整體而言 Scherzer是個ACE 全聯盟最佳投手之一

過去兩季累積繳出12.0的WAR 打平Felix Hernandez 只輸Kershaw而已

也就是說 他可能是全聯盟第二好的投手


Weaknesses/Cons 弱點

Scherzer is decidedly a flyball pitcher. This hasn’t hurt him over the last
two seasons, as he’s allowed 0.75 home runs per nine innings. From 2011-12,
however, he allowed 1.22 HR/9. The difference seems like nothing more than
the vagaries of his home run per flyball rate, which has hovered around 7.5%
over the past two seasons. Across MLB this year, 9.5% of flyballs left the
yard. Applying that rate, Scherzer would have allowed 4.7 additional home
runs this year and posted a 0.93 HR/9. Simply put: it would not be
surprising if Scherzer is slightly below average at preventing home runs
during his next contract.

他是個極端飛球投手 過去兩季這並不造成問題 他每九局只被打0.75支全壘打

然而在2011-12年間 他的HR/9則高到1.22

這樣的落差似乎來自他 被全壘打/飛球率的變化

過去兩季他的被全壘打/飛球率只有7.5%左右 全聯盟總和則是9.5%

以此計算 他今年將多被打4.7支全壘打 讓他的HR/9上升到0.93

他在下張合約期間被全壘打率高於聯盟平均也不會令人太意外


Pitch efficiency is not a strong suit for Scherzer. He averaged 16.51
pitches per inning in 2014, 70th among 88 qualified starters. The average
qualified starter was at 15.77 pitches per inning. Scherzer threw 3,638
pitches in 2014, third-most in baseball.

他有用球數過多的問題 今年平均每局要用16.51球

在全聯盟88個先發投手中只排到第70名 全聯盟平均是15.77球

他在今年投了3,638球 是全聯盟第三多的


As a player who received and will turn down a qualifying offer, signing
Scherzer will require forfeiture of a draft pick. Jon Lester, who is Scherzer
’s biggest competition on the market, is not eligible for a qualifying offer.

他拒絕了老虎的QO 簽他要賠第一輪(紅襪賠第二輪)

Lester身上則沒有綁QO


Personal 個人特質

Scherzer was born in St. Louis, Missouri. He attended high school in
Chesterfield, MO, rooting for the Cardinals as a child. His dad even brought
him to Game 4 of the 1985 World Series when he was 15 months old, according
to this article from Jeff Passan. Scherzer was drafted by the Cardinals in
the 43rd round in ’03. He chose not to sign and attended University of
Missouri Columbia, getting drafted 11th overall by the Diamondbacks in ’06.
Scherzer majored in business at Mizzou.

Scherzer currently resides in Scottsdale, Arizona with his wife. His
charitable efforts are extensive, with his Scherzer’s Superstars program and
other efforts.

Scherzer draws attention for having been born with one blue eye and one brown
one, which is called heterochromia. Max is also well-known for embracing
advanced baseball statistics, using them to help understand the game. When
he was traded in 2009, Scherzer became an MLBTR reader. He told Bob
Nightengale of USA Today, “Once that happened, I started becoming a pretty
fanatical fan and read it just about every day.”

Scherzer對進階數據非常有興趣 利用這些數據來使自己更了解比賽


Market 市場情形

C.C. Sabathia‘s seven-year, $161MM contract from six years ago remarkably
still stands as the largest given to a starting pitcher on the open market
(though the Yankees’ total outlay for Masahiro Tanaka last winter was
$175MM, including a $20MM fee paid to his former team in Japan). In 2008,
the average American League starting pitcher had a 4.48 ERA. Sabathia was on
an island in the 2008-09 offseason, coming off a 2.70 ERA.

C.C. Sabathia六年前的7年161M合約 至今仍是FA市場的紀錄

2008年的時候 美聯先發投手的平均防禦率是4.48 Sabathia則只有2.70


Scherzer is not on an island. In 2014, the average AL starter had a 3.92
ERA. As ESPN’s Buster Olney explained, “Major League Baseball’s market
has never seen so much attractive pitching available all at once, although
executives throughout the sport are aware this shift is something of an
optical illusion, created by the historic drop in run production in recent
seasons.” Scherzer’s 3.15 ERA this year ranked 26th among qualified
starters. That would have ranked 12th in 2008. In ’08, 23 starters were
under 3.50. In 2014, 39 starters were under 3.50, including free agents
Jason Hammel, Francisco Liriano, James Shields, Edinson Volquez, and Jon
Lester.

而今年美聯先發投手的平均防禦率是3.92 Scherzer是3.15

3.15的防禦率在2008年只能排全聯盟第12

2008年時 只有23位投手防禦率在3.50以下 今年則多到39人

FA先發投手中如Hammel, Liriano, Shields, Volquez, Lester等防禦率都低於3.50

這顯示了最近幾年來聯盟漸漸出現投強打弱的趨勢


Maybe Boras can make a strong case that Scherzer is the second-best starting
pitcher in baseball, but the scarcity isn’t there in baseball or in free
agency. Free agency is rife with solid mid-rotation options this year, and
teams ready to spend big on pitching might prefer Lester because he might not
require a seventh year. Or maybe teams would rather take on Brandon McCarthy
‘s injury risk at half of Scherzer’s average annual value and potentially
as few as three years.

Boras當然會以Scherzer是全聯盟第二好的先發投手來抬價

然而現在的市場上 頂尖先發跟其他投手的差距已經不像當時那麼顯著了

市場上有不少中段輪值的選項可作為備案 例如用三年簽只要一半年薪的McCarthy

而有意找尋前段輪值的球隊 也可能傾向優先找Lester 因為他不用給到第七年保障約


I expect Boras to seek more than $175MM for Scherzer. That kind of
commitment limits a player’s suitors. As Heyman put it, “It almost seems
like Scherzer is too good for the market at times.” In batting around
potential fits with MLBTR’s writing team and others around the game, teams
like the Cubs, Red Sox, Yankees, Dodgers, Astros, Giants, Rangers, Blue Jays,
Mariners, White Sox, Orioles, Nationals, and Diamondbacks came up. Some of
those clubs don’t seem to have the payroll space, others don’t seem to be
prioritizing starting pitching, and others have suggested they won’t play at
the top end of the market. Scherzer’s old team, the Tigers, can’t be ruled
out yet.

我預期Boras會開價175M以上 這價錢也讓買家變得非常有限

"或許Scherzer對有意先發投手的球隊來說太高檔了"

他可能的去向包括 小熊 紅襪 洋基 道奇 太空人 巨人 遊騎兵 藍鳥 水手等等

他的老東家老虎也還沒完全出局


Keep in mind that “this is an owner’s decision,” as Boras put it, as it
will happen above the GM level.

簽下他這類頂級FA 通常必須經過老闆的同意 而不只是GM層級的決定


Expected Contract 預期合約

The Tigers made the unorthodox move of releasing a statement in March after
Scherzer rejected a six-year, $144MM offer. The statement mostly made the
pitcher sound greedy, and was met in kind by a statement from Boras. The
Tigers’ offer was the Cole Hamels deal, which was nearly two years old at
that point. Boras viewed that as an old market price, with Tanaka and
Kershaw having signed more recently for $175MM and $215MM, respectively.
Boras told Jon Heyman of CBS Sports in November, “It’s rare that someone
shows the character and confidence to trust his ability to turn down $144
million. That’s never been done in professional sports. And that says a lot
about Max Scherzer.”

老虎在今年三月試圖以6年144M與他續約失敗後 曾經發出聲明暗示他過於貪婪

這個offer跟Hamels當年的延長合約是一樣的 而且他比Hamels那時還老了兩歲

Boras認為那已經是過去的價格了 他能拒絕這樣的offer 就顯示了Scherzer的實力



It stands to reason that Boras will want the seven year term achieved by
Tanaka and Sabathia. Tanaka’s deal began with his age 25 season, Sabathia’
s with his age 28 campaign. Scherzer’s deal will begin with his age 30
campaign, so he’s got a tougher case, one he’ll make with the “less
wear-and-tear” argument. And don’t be surprised if we hear about Boras
asking for eight years, as a way of arriving at seven in the end.

Boras當然會想要7年約 然而跟田中以及CC的兩張七年約比起來

Scherzer簽約時已經要進入30歲了 風險會比上述兩人更高

當然Boras會拿他手臂損耗較少這種說詞來講就是了

聽到Boras開八年也不要太意外 這只是一種討價還價的的伎倆而已


For average annual value, the $30.7MM figure obtained by Kershaw is likely
out of reach, though Boras may make the argument that Kershaw’s six free
agent seasons cost more like $32MM per year. Greinke was at $24.5MM, Tanaka
at $25MM. Felix Hernandez and Justin Verlander were at $27-28MM per year,
but those extensions were not signed on the open market and only added five
additional years.

他大概不大可能拿到Kershaw的30M年薪 Greinke的24.5M 田中的25M都是比價基礎

Felix Hernandez跟Verlander雖然每年都拿27-28M 但他們只簽了五年約


Ten MLB contracts have included opt-out clauses, and Boras did four of them.
The three most recent starting pitcher deals with opt-out clauses were done
by Casey Close of Excel Sports Management (Tanaka, Kershaw, and Zack
Greinke). Greinke and Sabathia obtained the ability to opt out after three
years. Boras figures to seek the same for Scherzer, who could then hit the
market again ahead of his age 33 season. The opt-out clause is not a
guarantee; Boras didn’t get one for Prince Fielder in the 2011-12 offseason.
But it is possible that some teams won’t view an opt-out as a big negative
despite the downside risk, as explained in my article on the topic from
February. The clause could allow a team to sign Scherzer and duck his
decline phase, as the Yankees could have done with Sabathia had they let him
go after his third year with them.

目前10張附帶脫逃條款的合約裡 Boras就佔了4張

最近三張都出自Casey Close (田中 Kershaw Greinke)

Greinke跟CC的合約都有三年後可選擇脫逃的條款 Boras或許也會想要

這樣他可以在Scherzer 33歲的時候再幫他找一份養老約

脫逃條款對球隊來說也不見得差 這可以讓他們避開選手可能的衰退

洋基在CC脫逃後 原本也可以讓他就這樣走人就好


Getting past Tanaka’s $175MM outlay would be a symbolic win for Boras. I’m
predicting a seven-year, $185MM deal for Scherzer.

幫他拿到超過田中將大的175M合約將會是Boras的一次指標性勝利

我預測他可以拿到7年185M的合約


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基本上 今年Scherzer Lester Shields這三個我們應該鐵定會簽一個

簽Shields的話 則可能另外會透過交易 找一個1號先發

人選包括 Hamels Zimmermann Cueto等等


簽前兩人之一的話 可以選擇交易的二號先發人選會比較多

大概也不需要出到Betts, XB, Swihart這種真的會痛的新秀


而Scherzer Lester這兩個人 個人會比較傾向簽回Lester

理由大致上是 就比賽的內容看起來 Scherzer這種power pitcher比較會受到年紀影響

球威下滑後如果找不出一套有效率的投球方法 可能衰退的幅度會超乎想像

尤其飛球型投手在芬威又更容易挨轟

這張七年約可能有一半的時間都會讓人非常不舒服


而Lester已經面對過球速下滑的問題

透過加強cutter跟曲球的控制 他還是表現出很不錯的壓制力

他比Scherzer老一歲 但也只需要給到六年約 所以其實意思是一樣

不管簽誰都要簽到他們的36歲球季 衰退可能是無可避免

不過他滾地球投手的特性 (生涯滾飛比0.9 Scherzer只有0.65 聯盟平均0.81)

加上對芬威的熟悉 或許有機會像Cliff Lee一樣威到35歲上下

如果能這樣的話 最後一年保障約就當作感謝他對球隊的貢獻也未嘗不可


btw, 好像沒看到前天球隊開給Lester的110M-120M是五年還是六年?

如果五年120M的話 或許還能稱得上是"aggressive offer" ?


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