Free Agent Profile: Jon Lester - 美國職棒

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/11/free-agent-profile-jon-lester.html

Ten months ago, the common belief was that Jon Lester would sign an extension
that would keep him in a Red Sox jersey into his late 30s. A lot can change
in a few months, however, and Lester soon found himself donning the green and
gold of the Oakland A’s following a midseason trade from a surprisingly poor
Boston club. Though many Red Sox fans wouldn’t have believed it would come
to this, the lefty is now fair game on the open market.

十個月以前 一般認為Lester會跟紅襪簽下延長合約 成為終身紅襪人

然而上季球隊戰績的不振 讓他意外在季中穿上了運動家的球衣

現在他得以在市場上測試他到底值多少$$


Strengths/Pros 優勢

To put things in the simplest of forms, Lester is a true ace at this point in
his career. He misses bats, has strong control and piles up innings. Among
free agent starters, Lester’s 2.46 ERA last year leads the pack by a long
shot, as does his 2.80 FIP. He was worth 6.1 wins above replacement, per
Fangraphs’ version of the metric (which is based on FIP), and he was worth
5.8 wins when looking at RA9-WAR, which is based on actual runs allowed. Both
metrics were tops among free agent starters. He struck out 220 hitters and
walked just 48 in 219 2/3 innings this season (9.0 K/9, 2.0 BB/9).

簡單來說 他在此刻是個真ACE 能讓打者揮空 控球好又能吃局數

上賽季2.46的防禦率在FA中領先 以FIP來看 他上賽季的WAR是6.1

以實際幫球隊省下來的分數來看 他上賽季的WAR是5.8

兩者都顯示他是頂尖的先發投手

上賽季他在219局裡三振了220位打者 只保送了48人 (9.0 K/9, 2.0 BB/9)


The 2014 campaign marked the sixth time in seven seasons that
Lester has topped the 200-inning threshold, and he totaled a strong 191 2/3
in the lone season he fell short (2011). His 219 2/3 innings trails only Max
Scherzer (220 1/3) and James Shields (227) among fellow free agents. Dating
back to 2008, his age-24 season, Lester has averaged 207 innings per season.
He’s hit the DL just once in that time, spending a mere 19 days on the shelf
with a strained lat in his left shoulder. That minor injury is all that
prevented him from seven straight 200-inning seasons.

上個球季是他過去七個球季裡 投球局數第六度達到200局大關

唯一沒到200局的2011年 也吃了191 2/3局

上季投了219 2/3局 FA中僅次於Scherzer (220 1/3局)跟Shields (227局)

2008年起 他平均每年可以吃下207局 只進了DL一次 (19天)


Lester was a strikeout machine early in his career, but his K/9 numbers
dipped in recent seasons, settling in the mid-7.00s before his resurgent 9.0
K/9 in 2014. Lester pounded the strike zone early this season, registering a
61.4 percent first-pitch strike rate — the highest mark of his career.
Perhaps being ahead in the count more often than ever improved the
effectiveness of his curveball, or perhaps it was the fact that he threw it
slower than ever before (75.1 mph average), but Lester’s 18.2 percent whiff
rate on his curve was easily the strongest of his career, resulting in the
restored strikeout rate.

他生涯早期是個三振機器 雖然12跟13年 K/9曾經掉到7.5左右 上賽季又回升到9.0

上季的好表現得力於他積極攻擊好球帶 第一球好球率高達61.4% 生涯最高

同時改善了他曲球的效率 或許是調整了曲球的速度 使得速差更明顯的關係

18.2%的讓對手揮空率 也是生涯最佳 讓他重新找回他的三振能力


Most of Lester’s career has come in a large market in the game’s most
hitter-friendly division, and he’s thrived in that setting, for the most
part. Teams will appreciate that component of his game, and his postseason
experience won’t hurt either. Lester has a 2.57 career ERA in 84 postseason
innings. He’s a two-time World Series champion that has been on five playoff
rosters.

他生涯絕大部分的時間都在大市場球隊以及對打者最有利的球場之一投球

而他大部分的時間都展現了他的壓制力

季後賽的表現與例行賽同樣傑出 84局裡防禦率低到只有2.57

五度名列季後賽名單裡 已經拿下兩枚冠軍戒指


Lester’s main competition this year will be Scherzer, with Shields
representing the third-best arm on the market. However, unlike his peers atop
this year’s free agent class, Lester does not have a qualifying offer
attached to him; he was ineligible to receive one after being traded
midseason and can therefore be signed without the forfeiture of a draft pick.

在自由球員市場中 他主要的比較對象是Scherzer Shields則是第三選擇

與其他兩人不同 由於季中被交易的關係 他身上沒有綁QO 簽下他的球隊也不用賠第一輪


Weaknesses/Cons 弱點

Lester was flat out elite this season, much like he was in his first full
three seasons, but from 2011-13, he looked more like a good starter than a
truly great one. In that time, Lester posted a 4.03 ERA, 3.84 FIP, 7.7 K/9
and 3.1 BB/9 — useful numbers to be sure, but not the type of stats one
associates with a pitcher in search of a six- or seven-year contract.

他上賽季的表現無疑是精英級的 與他前三個完整球季(08-10)一樣

然而在2011-2013這段期間裡 他看起來像是個好投手而非頂尖投手

這段期間裡他的防禦率4.03 FIP則高到3.84 7.7 K/9跟3.1 BB/9等數字

都讓他看起來不像是個可以拿到六至七年長約的投手


Though he averaged better than 93 mph on his fastball earlier in his career,
Lester’s velocity settled into the mid-92 range from 2011-13 and dipped even
further in 2014, averaging 91.8 mph. Of course, that’s still plenty of life,
especially considering the fact that he’s left-handed.

生涯初期均速有93 mph以上 在2011-2013這段期間裡略降到92.5左右

在上個賽季更降到只有91.8 mph

當然這還是個不錯的數字 特別是他還是個左投手


Lester turns 31 in January, meaning that a six-year deal would run through
his age-36 season and a seven-year pact would run through his age-37
campaign. Clearly, that’s a risky commitment, though such is the case with
all top-of-the-market free agents. He’s younger than Shields, but Scherzer
pitches most of next season at age 30, so his main competitor has age on his
side.

他在一月將滿31歲 這意味著給他六年約將會涵蓋他36歲的球季 (七年約則同理)

顯然這是一個有風險的決定 即便這是追逐頂尖FA球員的典型風險

他比Shields年輕 比Scherzer大一歲 所以Scherzer在年齡上會有些優勢


Personal 人格特質

Lester’s battle with cancer early on in his career was well-documented, and
in addition to the great comeback story that culminated in him winning the
clinching game of the 2007 World Series, that battle has shaped the work he’
s done in the community. Lester partnered with Charity Wines to release his
own line of red wine, the proceeds of which benefit the Fred Hutchinson
Cancer Research Center. His NVRQT charity sends all of its proceeds to the
Pediatric Cancer Research Foundation, and Lester explained how the charity
came about and what it means to him in a guest column for the Boston Globe in
2013.

他的抗癌歷史已經眾所皆知 在07年重回球場幫助球隊拿下WSC

下略


This past July, Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe wrote about the strides
Lester has made in terms of maturity both on the mound and with the media
after being a bit hot-tempered earlier in his career. (Abraham references
glaring at umpires after questionable calls and the infamous chicken-and-beer
incident as examples.)

Lester is married and has two sons. The Tacoma, Washington native now resides
near Atlanta in the offseason.


Market 市場狀況

Lester is one of the arms referred to as the “Big Three” of this offseason,
along with Scherzer and Shields. However, while MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes noted
that a third or more of the teams in the league could have viable interest in
Shields, the younger Lester figures to come with a higher price tag that may
take him out of the picture for a number of clubs.

他是今年FA先發投手三巨頭之一 其他兩人分別是Scherzer跟Shields

由於價位較高的關係 事實上追Shields的球隊會比追他的來得多一些


Lester stated multiple times that he’d like to return to Boston, and last
winter he told reporters that he planned to be with the Red Sox until someone
“ripped the jersey off his back.” However, the Red Sox made an initial
offer of $70MM over four years, at that point, and while the reported
$110-120MM offer they made today might have worked in March, it feels too
light to make them a serious contender right now.

Lester曾經數度表示他希望回到Boston打球

去年冬天他告訴記者 "他希望在紅襪待到有人扯下他的球衣"

然而 紅襪去年只開給他四年70M的合約 而不是他們昨天開給他的110M到120M

現在看來 這個價錢還不足以讓Lester回到紅襪效力


The other popular landing spot for Lester is the Cubs, where former Red Sox
GM Theo Epstein is now president of baseball operations. Epstein and GM Jed
Hoyer were members of the Boston front office when Lester emerged as a
front-line starter, and the team is rich on young hitters without much in the
way of high-upside pitching (Jake Arrieta is a notable exception).

另一個Lester的熱門去處是小熊 也就是Theo現在工作的地方

他們有一批年輕的好打者 但是缺Arrieta以外的前段先發


Other teams that figure to enter the mix are the typical names we see
assorted with high-end free agents. Though the Yankees maintain that they won
’t pursue Lester, Scherzer or Shields, it’s possible they’ll change their
tune if they’re unable to re-sign Brandon McCarthy and Chase Headley. The
Dodgers have the cash to pull off a deal, though they’re said to be looking
to tone down spending this winter. I still won’t rule them out as a
possibility. The Tigers and Angels have high payrolls but cloudy long-term
outlooks thanks to existing salary on the books. Neither seems a fit barring
trades to create some long-term flexibility.

另外就是幾支大市場球隊 例如洋基 道奇 老虎 天使等等


The rest of Lester’s market will have to consist of dark horses, and agents
Seth and Sam Levinson of ACES will likely need to pitch to owners of some
unlikely teams that Lester could be a franchise-altering decision. To this
point, the Royals have shown some preliminary interest, and Lester is set to
meet with the Braves on Thursday. The Cardinals have also been linked to
Lester.

其他黑馬包括 皇家 勇士 紅雀等球隊 則需要經紀人直接找上老闆溝通

讓老闆相信Lester會是那奪冠的最後一塊拼圖


Beyond that, a team like the Astros has the long-term payroll freedom to make
a move, as do the Marlins, who could feel that adding Lester would be a
significant step toward building a perennial contender now that they’ve
extended Giancarlo Stanton. The Nationals have plenty of money and are set to
lose both Jordan Zimmermann and Doug Fister next winter. Trading one and
swapping him out for Lester could is a long shot but not unthinkable. The
Giants haven’t spent at this level on the free agent market since their
ill-fated Barry Zito deal, but they have rotation needs and are flush with
cash following the World Series. The Rangers deserve a mention as a team with
a willingness to spend and a need for starters, but GM Jon Daniels has
indicated they may not be big spenders on the open market. Could a reunion
with his hometown Mariners be in the cards? Seattle’s primary need is
offense, but if they again have trouble luring hitters to Safeco Field, GM
Jack Zduriencik could double down on an existing strength and look to build
an even more imposing rotation.

除此之外 太空人 馬林魚 國民 巨人 遊騎兵 水手等球隊

某程度上也都會想要Lester在他們的陣中


Expected Contract 預期合約

As is often the case with big name free agents, it’s easy to look at Lester
right now and think that outside of the traditional big spenders, there’s
not much of a market for him if he’s seeking six or seven years at an annual
value north of $20MM. With players of this caliber, the market isn’t always
quick to reveal itself, but it does eventually materialize, and we typically
see the top names get paid.

看看那些有錢花的球隊 就不難推測Lester的可能下家有哪些

沒有很多球隊負擔的起每年20M 六到七年的大約

雖然這類球員的市場成形需要一些時間 但最後他們通常都會拿到該拿的$$


Lester has said free agency isn’t all about the money, but I’d be surprised
if his agents hadn’t at least kicked around the goal of trying to break CC
Sabathia‘s $161MM guarantee, which is still the record for a free agent
pitcher. (The Yankees did spend $175MM on Masahiro Tanaka, but $20MM of that
sum went to Tanaka’s former team in Japan.)

Lester曾經說過打球並不完全是為了錢

但如果他的經紀人不試試看能否讓他打破CC的161M保障約紀錄 將會令人訝異


Were Lester coming off a pair of dominant seasons, as Scherzer is, I think
there would be a better case for that figure. As it is, however, he showed a
significant gap between his two most recent dominant seasons. Also of note is
that Sabathia, like fellow high-priced hurlers Zack Greinke and Cole Hamels,
signed his contract at a significantly younger age than Lester. While we have
to account for some inflation, as those deals are now older (and Hamels’, of
course, was not an open-market deal), Lester may have a hard time getting the
seventh guaranteed season. Looking at the majority of the significant
pitching contracts signed in recent history, guarantees typically stop in the
age-36 season, if not sooner. If that’s the case, Lester would need to
achieve a $27MM annual salary to top Sabathia on a six-year deal, which seems
a touch steep.

如果Lester是連兩季有去年這種宰制級的表現 這個目標將會比較容易達成

即便他在去年之前表現有些落差 考慮通膨因素之後

合理的比較對象應該是Hamels(7年153M)跟Greinke(6年159M)那兩張約

由於Lester拿到第七年保證約的機率不大 大概沒辦法超越CC的161M紀錄


In the end, I do think Lester can top the marks set by Hamels and Greinke.
Lester was the best performer among free agent pitchers in 2014, so I can’t
completely rule out him getting a seventh year and/or passing Sabathia’s
mark. However, his age and the lack of a consistently dominant track record
has me pegging him for a six-year, $153MM contract.

由於Lester是14年表現最佳的FA先發 我認為他將會拿得比Hamels跟Greinke還多

然而考慮到他的年齡以及並非持續性的維持宰制力 我預料他將會拿到六年153M的合約


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看到昨天球隊開給Lester的110M到120M offer之後 很多版友都覺得FO搞砸了

不過我想說的是 事實上在Lester去年賽揚級的表現之前 他連三年的表現都不是ACE級的

去年冬天開給他4年70M 頂多是一個保守的offer 但不至於有到羞辱人的程度


當然如果去年就端出6年120M的合約給他 他很可能會接受

但問題還是回到前面 開給31-36歲的二號先發6年120M的"延長合約"是明智的嗎?

個人認為拿他14年的表現來指責FO 這有點事後諸葛


至於季中該不該交易他 這又是另外一個問題了

至少從報導上看來 這並沒有影響他重返紅襪的意願

而我們也拿到多一年合約的Cespedes 可以頂上中心打線 或換另一個先發來補輪值洞

個人不覺得這是一個錯誤的move


不過在Lester去年的強勢表現之後 顯然現在要找他回來要付出更大的代價

如果如本文預測的六年150M以上 (平均一年25M) 大家覺得值得嗎?


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