Free Agent Profile: Pablo Sandoval - 美國職棒

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/11/free-agent-profile-pablo-sandoval.html

Pablo Sandoval has a case as the best free agent hitter this offseason, and
demand is strong. The third baseman reached free agency at age 28, putting
an exclamation point on his year with another huge postseason.

Sandoval可能是今年最好的FA打者，而且市場上需求強勁

他在28歲的年紀就成為自由球員，且在季後賽中的表現為今年劃下完美句點


Strengths/Pros 優勢

Sandoval is a career .294 hitter who has hit .315 or better in multiple full
seasons. Known for his incredible hand-eye coordination, he makes contact
about 87% of the time. His consistency in this area has been uncanny, as he’
s never dipped below 86.5% or risen above 86.9% in any of his six full
seasons. What’s more, Sandoval has no clear weakness, as Jeff Sullivan of
FanGraphs explained. He can hit pitches in and out of the strike zone, he
can hit all types of pitches, and he can hit with two strikes. In 2008,
Sandoval told Lee Jenkins of Sports Illustrated, “I like every pitch, no
matter where it is.”

生涯打擊率.294，有複數球季打擊率在.315以上

手眼協調絕佳，contact能力強，生涯六個球季的contact率都在86.5%-86.9%之間

沒有明顯的打擊死角，無論內角外角、什麼球種他都能攻擊

他曾告訴記者"任何球我都能打，無論它從哪裡進壘"


Sandoval’s weighted runs created plus (wRC+) of 114 ranked ninth this year
among third basemen. This stat is park and league-adjusted, giving Sandoval
some credit for playing in a pitchers’ park.

他今年經過球場及聯盟校正的WRC+有119，在全聯盟的3B裡排第9

Sandoval’s postseason heroics in 2012 and 2014 are legendary. He won the
World Series MVP in 2012, hitting .500 with three home runs as part of an
excellent postseason overall. This year, he raked to the tune of
.366/.423/.465 in the postseason. Just 28 years old, Sandoval has already
collected three rings with the Giants.

12年跟14年季後賽的鬼神表現讓他28歲就已經拿到3枚戒指

Though he’s a big guy, Sandoval plays a solid third base. His ultimate zone
rating and defensive runs saved marks were both above average this year.

即便身型巨大，他在三壘的守備卻很靈活

今年的UZR顯示他的守備高於平均

We’ve mentioned that Sandoval is just 28 years old. Such youth is a rarity
for a free agent, and it’s a function of Sandoval reaching the Majors at age
21 and not signing an extension that gave up free agent years. The unique
cases of Cuban free agents aside, Sandoval is the youngest prominent free
agent hitter along with Colby Rasmus, who was born on the same day.

除了古巴叛逃球員外，在28歲就成為FA是很少見的

他跟同一天出生的Colby Rasmus並列為今年最年輕的FA打者


Weaknesses/Cons 缺點

For all his postseason success, Sandoval’s regular season was his worst with
the bat since 2010. His 6.1% walk rate was a career-worst for a full season,
and it resulted in an unspectacular .324 on-base percentage. And while
Sandoval flashed 25 home run pop early in his career, he’s averaged about 15
per 600 plate appearances over the last three seasons. He’s slugged just
.416 over the last two campaigns, 67th among qualified hitters. This year in
the regular season, Sandoval was roughly the hitter Trevor Plouffe, Daniel
Murphy, or Brett Gardner was. Those are above average hitters, but not
middle of the order cornerstones.

今年例行賽的表現是2010年以來最糟的，保送率掉到生涯最低的6.1%

也因此上壘率掉到只有.324

儘管生涯初期有單季25發HR的實力，近三季平均產量卻掉到剩15支

過去兩季的長打率也只有.416，在所有打者中只能排到第67

今年球季的打擊表現大致上就是Trevor Plouffe, Daniel Murphy或Brett Gardner等級

他們都是高於平均的打者，但絕非中心打線的人選


Sandoval’s baserunning has always been a detriment, bringing his overall
value down. He has totaled 7.9 wins above replacement over the last three
seasons, 81st in baseball among position players. He’s in a virtual tie
with guys like Jon Jay and Jed Lowrie, who might be described as useful but
are certainly not considered stars or among the best as their respective
positions. By measure of WAR, Sandoval ranked 14th among third basemen this
year, seven spots below fellow free agent third baseman Chase Headley.

一直以來跑壘都是他的弱點，也因此減低了他的整體價值

過去三季累積的WAR只有7.9，在全聯盟打者中只能排到第81

差不多就是Jon Jay或Jed Lowrie等級的球員

而這類球員通常被形容為"有用的"而非各自位置上的"明星球員"

以WAR來說，Sandoval今年在所有三壘手中只能排到第14

比同樣在今年成為FA的Chase Headley還低了7名


Sandoval is listed at 5-foot-11 and 245 pounds, making him one of the game’s
heaviest regular position players. He’s been at least 30 pounds heavier
than that at different points. Using pounds per inch, Daniel Meyer of Beyond
the Box Score noted, “Deep into the history of the past 143 years of
recorded baseball history no player of Sandoval’s proportions has played
more than a season’s worth of games at third base,” making Sandoval a
trailblazer in what he’s done already. His weight raises questions about
how well he’ll age, his future durability, and when he might have to move
off the hot corner. Talk about Sandoval’s weight and conditioning have
followed him throughout his career, as chronicled by Jorge L. Ortiz of USA
Today in February this year.

5呎11吋245磅的身材，讓他成為最肥的打者之一

在過去更曾經數次比現在還重上30磅

Daniel Meyer指出，過去143年來，沒有像Sandoval這麼肥的球員能守3壘超過一季

這也讓他成為歷史上一個獨特的案例

他的體重也讓人懷疑他的衰退會不會比一般球員來的更快

他未來的耐戰性、能不能繼續當3壘手都是問號


Since he received and turned down a one-year, $15.3MM qualifying offer from
the Giants, signing Sandoval will require draft pick forfeiture.

由於他拒絕了巨人提出的QO，所以簽下他需要賠上第一輪(紅襪只要賠第二輪)


Personal 個人特質

Sandoval was born in Puerto Cabello, Venezuela. He was born left-handed but
learned to throw with his right hand at the age of nine so he could play
catcher. Switch-hitting followed his switch-throwing a few years later.
The Giants signed him in 2003 at age 16, as a catch-and-throw specialist
behind the plate.

原本是左撇子，為了當捕手所以在九歲時練習用右手丟球

2003年他16歲時被巨人隊簽下，原本只是陪練的捕手


Sandoval is an exuberant player who usually has a smile on his face and is
beloved by fans. He is nicknamed Kung Fu Panda, a name bestowed on him by
teammate Barry Zito in 2008 when Sandoval scored a run by jumping over the
catcher’s tag. The nickname took off, with thousands of Giants fans making
Panda gear ubiquitous.

活力充沛，臉上總是掛著笑容

外號功夫熊貓的由來是有一次本壘攻防時他曾經跳過捕手的tag

Sandoval has two daughters and resides in Venezuela in the offseason.


Market 市場狀況

So far in free agency, Sandoval has been pursued heavily by the Giants and is
in Boston today for a meeting with the Red Sox. The Padres, Blue Jays, and
White Sox have also been connected, and agent Gustavo Vasquez met with most
or all of the teams at last week’s GM Meetings. Just to expand the field as
far as possible, teams such as the Yankees, Tigers, Astros, Angels, and
Marlins don’t have third base entirely locked down even if they haven’t
been linked to Sandoval recently. Sandoval has been a member of the Giants
for his entire career, and after past championships the Giants retained their
players. Prior to the season, the Giants reportedly tried to start the
conversation with a three-year, $40MM offer with Sandoval seeking five years
and $100MM+.

除了巨人跟紅襪之外，教士、藍鳥跟白襪也曾表現過興趣

其他像是洋基、老虎、太空人、天使跟馬林魚等球隊也需要三壘的補強

過去巨人總是不吝於撒錢留下冠軍隊的重要成員，

不過這次Sandoval要求的五年100M跟巨人想給的三年40M顯然相距甚遠


With Aramis Ramirez having re-signed with the Brewers, Sandoval’s third base
competition consists of Headley and perhaps Hanley Ramirez. Headley holds
the advantage of not being eligible for a qualifying offer. Plus, his
defense-oriented profile won’t cost nearly as much. The trade market at
third base is light, with perhaps Luis Valbuena, David Freese, Casey McGehee,
Pedro Alvarez, and Plouffe in the mix.

市場上的先發三壘手剩下他跟Headley，或許還有Hanley

Headley的優勢在於沒有綁QO，以及守備價值在市場上通常會被低估

其他可以經由交易取得的3B還有Valbuena, Freese, McGehee, Alvarez, Plouffe等人


Expected Contract 預期合約

Perhaps because of the postseason, his age, or the promise Sandoval showed in
years like 2009, this is a player who is valued by the market well beyond his
regular season statistics.

考量他季後賽的表現跟年齡，他在市場上能拿到的會比他季賽成績所顯示的更多

Vasquez has come right out and said his client is focused on the length of
his deal and that six years would be reasonable given his age (Henry Schulman
of the San Francisco Chronicle reporting). Most agents don’t speak about
that publicly, and most also seek one year more than they might privately
expect the player to receive. I think in this case, Vasquez really does
expect six years, and Sandoval will receive such an offer in the end. It is
difficult to picture seven years unless that seventh year comes very cheaply.

經紀人表示他希望拿到至少六年的長約，通常情況下跟實際成交的長度會有一年的空間

不過我個人認為他應該可以拿到一份六年的合約，

除非平均年薪很低，不然七年約不大可能

Expectations seem to be for an average annual value of $18-20MM for Sandoval.
I’m going with a six-year, $114MM deal.

我預測他的年薪大概在18-20M之間，最後簽下一份六年114M的長約

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Sandoval是市場上唯一一個"或許"可以同時解決我們缺左打、三壘跟power問題的人

不過11年之後連年衰退，不選球好像跟紅襪的打擊哲學也不大合，

另外有Fielder的前例也讓人擔心他到底還能守多久的三壘

以現在看起來至少要出到五年90M左右的情況，大家覺得FO會簽他嗎？

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