Fangraphs Top 10 Prospects：The Seattle Mariners - 美國職棒

http://0rz.tw/jGQWW

其實一月底就已經出來了，只是我一直忘了貼...XD

2011 2010

1、Michael Pineda 1、Michael Saunders
2、Dustin Ackley 2、Adam Moore
3、Nick Franklin 3、Carlos Triunfel
4、Taijuan Walker 4、Alex Liddi
5、Guillermo Pimentel 5、Michael Pineda
6、Mauricio Robles 6、Matt Tuiasosopo
7、Johermyn Chavez 7、Nick Hill
8、Kyle Seager 8、Gabriel Noriega
9、Dan Cortes 9、Maikel Cleto
10、Blake Beavan 10、Johermyn Chavez

名單跟去年相較大洗牌
Moore、Saunders、Tuiasosopo已經攻上大聯盟要搶先發位置
Pineda也將在今年拉上來
Johermyn Chavez留在這份名單上
其他的名單全部被09、10這兩年選進或交易的新秀攻佔
尤其是09年更是恐怖，前六籤：Ackley、Franklin、Baron、Seager、Poythress、Jones
除了Baron以外，其他人在去年都打出不錯或是好成績
讓大家比較意外的是應該是Taijuan Walker
這小子感覺上沒做什麼事，結果竟然排進農場三本柱的後面
Marc Hulet非常看好他的未來性
認為他已經有很不錯的速球跟曲球，還在鍛鍊變速球
簡單來說：就是非常看好他的天分

看到這邊不禁感嘆：該說Zduriencik真的太威，還是Bavasi太蠢？
Zduriencik主政將近兩年半，選進來的新秀已經把前幾年幾隻潛力新秀趕光了
雖然你要說因為Zduriencik把Bavasi留下來的新秀賣光光了
不過看看丟出去的新秀跟換回來的貨嘛....

Bavasi到底怎麼活著走出西雅圖的？<囧>

下面附上Fangraphs的簡短球探報告：

1. Michael Pineda, RHP
Acquired: 2005 non-drafted free agent (Dominican Republic)
Pro Experience: 5 seasons
2010 MiLB Level: AA/AAA
Opening Day Age: 22
Estimated Peak WAR: 5.0

Notes: Pineda entered the 2010 season a little bit under the radar, thanks to
an injury-filled ’09 season. But he quickly vaulted to the top of the club’
s prospect list with a good showing at both double-A and triple-A. In
double-A, Pineda managed a 2.16 FIP, while also showing the ability to miss
bats (9.12 K/9). His control was outstanding, with a walk rate of 1.99 BB/9.
His FIP jumped to 3.60 at triple-A but his strikeout rate jumped to 10.97 K/9
and he maintained his control. He did see his HR/9 rate jump from 0.12 to
1.30, but his ground-ball rates suggest there isn’t too much reason to be
concerned; he should produce average ground-ball rates in the Majors and his
home park will help keep fly balls in play. His repertoire includes a mid-90s
fastball, slider, and changeup. Pineda’s delivery includes a long stride, a
three-quarter arm slot and some effort. If he can continue to sharpen his
changeup, he could develop into a No. 2 starter.

2. Dustin Ackely, 2B
Acquired: 2009 1st round (U North Carolina)
Pro Experience: 1 season
2010 MiLB Level: AA/AAA
Opening Day Age: 23
Estimated Peak WAR: 4.5

Notes: Ackley’s numbers haven’t been quite as good as expected from a
former top draft pick, but the organization has pushed him aggressively
through the minors. The ’09 draft pick spent the 2010 season in double-A and
triple-A with modest results. After a slow start to the year Ackley rebounded
to hit .260/.386/.381 at double-A before moving up to triple-A and hitting
.274/.338/.439 in 212 at-bats. He currently has gap power, but he could
develop 15-homer pop in the Majors. He also has the speed to steal 15-20
bases. He hits with a slightly-open stance and does a nice job of keeping his
bat level through the strike zone. He hits well to all fields. Ackley has yet
to find a definitive defensive home, although he’s expected to end up at
second base. As a hard worker, he should become an average defensive player.
It’s possible that he could use some more seasoning in triple-A, but the
trade of Jose Lopez and a strong Arizona Fall League showing could help
Ackley win the second-base job in spring training.

3. Nick Franklin, SS
Acquired: 2009 1st round (Florida HS)
Pro Experience: 2 seasons
2010 MiLB Level: A/AA
Opening Day Age: 20
Estimated Peak WAR: 4.0

Notes: Franklin caught a lot of people by surprise when he produced a 20-20
line in his first full pro season. The teenager’s power (.205 ISO) comes
from good bat speed and a willingness to let the bat fly. That could catch up
to him at higher levels, though, leading to lower batting averages. With a
little more of a controlled swing, Franklin could cut down on his strikeout
rate (24.0 K%), while also producing a better all-around offensive approach
and still hit about 15 home runs. He has good hands at the plate and clears
his hips quickly. His speed is average but he’s a smart base runner. In the
field, Franklin has good actions at shortstop but an average arm could
eventually lead him to a job at the keystone. He could be in line for a big
offensive season at High Desert, but there is some thought that he might also
jump to double-A where it will be interesting to see if he can maintain
respectable numbers – with his current approach – against more advanced
pitchers.

4. Taijuan Walker, RHP
Acquired: 2010 supplemental 1st round (California HS)
Pro Experience: 1 season
2010 MiLB Level: Rookie
Opening Day Age: 18
Estimated Peak WAR: 4.0

Notes: Walker appeared in just four games after signing in 2010 (in part due
to shoulder issues) and he could open ’11 in extended spring training. The
right-hander shows a lot of potential but he played multiple sports in high
school and didn’t pitch regularly until his senior season. He has two good
pitches: a low-to-mid-90s fastball and a curveball, but he’s still working
to develop his changeup. Walker is an athletic pitcher, who fields his
position well, but he’s still sharpening his mechanics and tends to struggle
with his command. He pitches with a high leg kick, a long stride, and a
three-quarter arm slot. His delivery also has some effort to it.

5. Guillermo Pimentel, OF
Acquired: 2009 non-drafted free agent (Dominican Republic)
Pro Experience: 1 season
2010 MiLB Level: Rookie
Opening Day Age: 18
Estimated Peak WAR: 4.5

Notes: Like Walker, Pimentel could be another top prospect that will need a
fair bit of time to develop. Signed for $2 million as a non-drafted free
agent, he was named the Rookie Arizona League’s No. 1 prospect by Baseball
America despite modest numbers, including a triple-slash line of
.250/.276/.451 in 184 at-bats. The left-handed hitter shows plus-power
potential (.201 ISO rate as a teenager), although he needs to make more
consistent contact and improve against off-speed pitches. He has a nice
approach at the plate with a solid swing and good bat speed. With enough
development time, Pimentel could develop into a plus defender, but he’s
still raw in the field, as well as on the base paths. With massive power and
an overly-aggressive approach (2.6 BB%), Seattle will have to hope that
Pimentel can avoid becoming Greg Halman.

6. Mauricio Robles, LHP
Acquired: 2006 non-drafted free agent (Venezuela)
Pro Experience: 4 seasons
2010 MiLB Level: AA/AAA
Opening Day Age: 22
Estimated Peak WAR: 3.5

Notes: Stolen from Detroit in the ’09 Jarrod Washburn deal (along with
MLB-contributor Luke French), Robles has developed into a nice prospect. The
left-hander has a plus fastball that sits 90-94 mph range despite his
small-ish frame. Robles also flashes a plus changeup and a developing
curveball. Robles’ control needs more consistency (4.03 in double-A, 6.43 in
triple-A) but he has produced good strikeout rates throughout his career,
including 9.47 K/9 in 114.0 double-A innings. If his breaking ball doesn’t
come around, the southpaw could develop into a high-leverage reliever. He has
a quick arm and a three-quarter arm slot but he struggles with his release
point at times. His lower half is a little thick so he’ll have to stay on
top of his conditioning as he ages.

7. Johermyn Chavez, OF
Acquired: 2005 non-drafted free agent (Venezuela)
Pro Experience: 5 seasons
2010 MiLB Level: A+
Opening Day Age: 22
Estimated Peak WAR: 4.0

Notes: Chavez was acquired from the Jays along with reliever Brandon League
in the ill-fated Brandon Morrow trade. League had a solid season in the
Mariners bullpen, but he did not come close to matching Morrow’s value (3.7
WAR) with Toronto. Chavez could help lessen some of the blow, but he’s a
one-dimensional slugger who struggles in the field despite a strong arm. Just
22, he produced solid numbers in high-A ball in 2010, but he performed in a
hitter’s league. Chavez has always had good raw power but he saw his ISO
rate jump from .191 in ’09 to .262 in ’10. He hit .315 but was helped by a
.364 BABIP. On the plus side, he’s become a little more patient at the plate
and has seen his walk rate increase steadily over the past few seasons from
5.7 to 7.0 to 8.6%; his strikeout rate has dropped from 31.8 to 27.0 to
24.5%. Chavez has good bat speed and the ball jumps off of his bat. His swing
is more level now than it was in the Jays system, so Seattle has clearly
eliminated his noticeable upper cut. Chavez will face a big test in 2011 when
he faces tougher pitching in double-A

8. Kyle Seager, 2B/3B
Acquired: 2009 3rd round (U North Carolina)
Pro Experience: 2 seasons
2010 MiLB Level: A+
Opening Day Age: 23
Estimated Peak WAR: 3.5

Notes: A teammate of Dustin Ackley’s at the University of North Carolina,
Seager will likely be pushed off second base by the former No. 1 draft pick.
Seager may have the bat to move to third base on a permanent basis, though.
He had an excellent offensive season while playing in the potent California
League. He produced a .345 batting average, thanks in part to a .390 BABIP,
and also displayed a good eye at the plate with a walk rate of 11.0% and a
respectable strikeout rate of 16.9%. Seager showed some power with a .158 ISO
and he could see some of his gap power (40 doubles in 557 at-bats) turn into
over-the-fence pop as he matures as a hitter. He has a quiet stance at the
plate but his mechanics look mechanical and stiff at times. When he’s
looking really good, Seager shows quick hands, keeps his bat level through
the zone and clears his hips well. If he cannot produce enough pop to succeed
at the hot corner, Seager could become an offensive-minded utility player,
having seen time at second, third, and shortstop.

9. Dan Cortes, RHP
Acquired: 2005 7th round (California HS)
Pro Experience: 6 seasons
2010 MiLB Level: AA/AAA/MLB
Opening Day Age: 24
Estimated Peak WAR: 2.5

Notes: With six seasons of pro ball and three employers on his resume, it’s
been a long, steady climb through the minors for Cortes, who is still just
24. The hard-thrower (his fastball sat just below 97 mph on average in his
MLB debut) has improved the command of his secondary pitches (curveball,
slider) and he’s also learned to keep the ball on the ground a little bit
more after being more of an extreme fly-ball pitcher earlier in his career.
His control still comes and goes (5.70 BB/9 in double-A) but Cortes can
dominate when he finds the plate (9.14 K/9). Mostly a starter in the minors,
he’ll likely be a high-leverage reliever at the MLB level if he can find a
little more consistency.

10. Blake Beavan, RHP
Acquired: 2007 1st round (Texas HS)
Pro Experience: 3 seasons
2010 MiLB Level: AA/AAA
Opening Day Age: 22
Estimated Peak WAR: 3.0

Notes: Beavan is the antithesis of Dan Cortes. The former Rangers No. 1 draft
pick has seen his velocity take a step backwards in pro ball but he succeeds
with outstanding control (0.98 BB/9 rate in 110 double-A innings). The
right-hander also produced a 51% ground-ball rate. The knock on Beavan is
that he doesn’t have a dynamite out-pitch, which helps to explain the
strikeout rate of 5.56 K/9. He’s probably best-suited as a workhorse No. 4
starter in the American League, although he could certainly develop into a
No. 3 in the NL. His fastball ranges anywhere from 87-93 mph, although it
flattens out the harder he throws it. He also has a so-so slider and a decent
changeup. Beavan has a three-quarter arm slot and a low-effort arm action.

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