Boras on Ellsbury - 美國職棒

Boras compares Ellsbury to Carl Crawford (and an aircraft carrier)

http://0rz.tw/bFweG

The Red Sox have keen interest in re-signing star center fielder Jacoby
Ellsbury, according to people familiar with their thinking. However, Red Sox
connected people are suggesting now that if Ellsbury's market goes well into
the nine-figure arena – and considering their own $142 million deal for Carl
Crawford three winters ago among other comps, it could happen – they aren't
necessarily optimistic that Boston will be able to retain him.

根據對紅襪策略思考熟悉的人表示，紅襪很有興趣和Ellsbury簽約。「不過」，相關人士
表示如果Ellsbury不只進入九位數的世界還進入很深的話─被尻佛$142M毒藥約嚇到的紅
襪再簽約的機會不樂觀。 ($100M數量級)

The Red Sox tried to re-sign Ellsbury sometime before this season, and all
indications are they will try again. The issue is whether they have interest
in getting into a bidding war that could go easily past the $100 million
mark, well past it if you listen to Ellsbury's agent Scott Boras' words
Thursday.

紅襪在季前試圖重簽，而各方消息也指出紅襪會再試一次。但是照著Boras的說法，無論
紅襪有沒有意願加入搶人大戰，總價碼都會遠超過九位數大關。

Boston had huge success dealing last winter in what's been dubbed the “
mid-range” market, scoring big with its deals for Shane Victorino, Mike
Napoli and others, and that strategy may be weighing on them. It's no
surprise there are people within the Red Sox hierarchy who aren't anxious to
return to the $100 million-plus type deals that haven't always paid off for
them.

上一個冬天紅襪在「中階市場」中打了漂亮的一仗，Shane Victorino、Mike Napoli等人
成了策略中的主角。所以出現認為不急著去和不見得成功的$100M等級球員簽約的紅襪人
也不令人意外。

Boras, in an interview with CBSSports.com, made clear what he thinks of the “
mid-range” market strategy and where he thinks Ellsbury stands, saying, “
Free agency is like the Navy. You can have a number of mid-range missiles,
but they only work as long as you have the aircraft carrier to put them on.”

Boras在CBSSports.com的訪談中聲明他對「中階市場策略」以及Ellsbury價值的想法：
「自由球員就向海軍，你可以擁有一些中程飛彈，但是那要有航母來載才有用。」

"I think any team would say in a perfect world they would stick to
shorter-term deals," Red Sox general manager Ben Cherington said Thursday.
"There's always exceptions. We obviously made an exception in [Dustin]
Pedroia's case."

Ben Cherington在今天提及：「我想任何一支球隊都只想短約，只是總是有例外。顯然
小派就是其中一個例子。」

The Red Sox gave Pedroia an eight-year, $110 million deal when they signed
him to an extension in July.

紅襪在七月跟小派簽了一紙八年、$110M的合約。

The implication in Boras' comment is that Ellsbury is an aircraft carrier.
While some may not view him as a mega star, as Boras pointed out he is a
former winner of a Gold Glove award and a Silver Slugger who's again leading
his league in stolen bases.

Boras的「暗示」中，Ellsbury就是航母。雖然一些人不認為他是巨星，不過Boras表示
他可是前金手套得主、銀棒獎得主而且今年再度成為盜壘王領先者。

Some may point to Ellsbury's inability to get back to the slugging form of
2011, when he led the American League in total bases and finished second in
MVP voting to Justin Verlander despite the Red Sox's historic collapse, but
Boras points to Ellsbury's many attributes in positioning him as a major star
in this marketplace, specifically noting his ability to steal 50 bases, score
100 runs and post a .750-plus OPS.

一些人認為Ellsbury再也無法像2011年那樣幹球─那年壘打數美聯第一，而且雖然身處黑
暗的2011年卻依然拿到MVP第二名─但是Boras表示他的各種貢獻讓他在市場上擁有巨星地
位，特別是50盜能力、得分100分以及超越.750 OPS的組合。

A couple executives on other teams mentioned B.J. Upton, who got a $75.2
million, five-year deal, as a possible free-agent comp, but that may be a
management-leaning guess considering Upton's lack of consistency and low
batting averages even before this year. (Yet other execs say they believe
he'll indeed get nine figures).

一些他隊經理表示Ellsbury可能會像B.J. Upton一樣拿到五年$75.2M，但是那可能是帶隊
考量的猜測─因為Upton穩定性不佳，打擊率也不高。(也有其他人說九位數正常)。

***

在此補充Mark Polishuk的文章 http://t.co/WTW6wQFUGm

Some executives tell Heyman that Ellsbury could be in line for a
five-year/$75MM deal like B.J. Upton while others think the Boston outfielder
will indeed crack the $100MM mark. My guess is that Ellsbury seems like a
lock for a $100MM+ contract on the open market this offseason due to both his
talents and because this winter's free agent outfielder market is rather
slim. MLBTR's Tim Dierkes has had Ellsbury rated no lower than third
throughout his 2014 Free Agent Power Rankings since the season began, and
Ellsbury has claimed the No. 2 position (behind only Robinson Cano) for the
last two months.

有些經理告訴Heyman說Ellsbury會拿到B.J. Upton等級的約，有些則說會拿超過$100M─
尤其是他有一定的天份，更重要的是今年的外野手市場很小。Tim Dierkes在2014的FA
Power Rankings中從沒把Ellsbury放到前三名之外，近兩個月更是都在第二名(輸Cano)。

I used the Crawford deal as a comparison myself when I examined Ellsbury as a
possible extension candidate back in March 2012. At the time Ellsbury was
coming off the best season of his career -- a .321/.376/.552 slash line, 32
homers, 39 steals, 119 runs scored and a league-leading 364 total bases.
Since then, Ellsbury has hit .287/.340/.403 with just 12 homers over 941 PA,
though his 2012 season was limited to only 74 games due to injury.

2012年三月時，我個人用尻佛來比價，當時Ellsbury剛打出生涯年：.321/.376/.552、
32轟、39盜、119分以及聯盟第一的364TB。2012年因為受傷只打74場(941PA)；成績縮水
到.287/.340/.403、12轟。

My proposal at the time was a seven-year, $133MM deal between Ellsbury and
the Red Sox that would have covered Ellsbury's 2013 season and his first six
free agent years. Ellsbury hasn't kept up the power since then and he turns
30 years old next week. As we saw with Michael Bourn (another Boras client)
last offseason, teams are hesitant to give major deals to speed-centric
players entering their thirties.

那時我的建議是七年$133M，涵蓋了今年球季以及接下來的六年。Ellsbury之後並沒有拿
出一樣的砲瓦出來，而我們也能看到Michael Bourn(也是Bora$客戶)上季的狀況，各隊
對於要不要簽下以速度為主的30歲球員感到相當遲疑。

***

Boras, meantime, suggested that not only is Upton not in the ballpark but
that even Crawford comes up short as a player, as well. Jayson Werth's $126
million, seven-year deal may help Ellsbury's case, too, but Crawford is the
one who seems obvious to mention since he's a speed player like Ellsbury, and
more to the point, that was Boston's own deal.

不過Boras表示Ellsbury跟Upton不同等級，尻佛也比不上Ellsbury。Jayson Werth的七年
$126M似乎可以拿來參考，不過尻佛跟Ellsbury一樣都是以速度為主的外野手，而且都是
紅襪的球員。

“Two things separate Ellsbury [from Crawford]. Carl Crawford was never
proven as a leadoff hitter, and Carl Crawford is not a center fielder,''
Boras said. “They are two different animals. It's not a consideration
because he's a corner outfielder. Just think if Carl Crawford could play
center field.”

「兩人不同的地方在於：尻佛並沒有證明他能穩坐首棒打者，而且他不是中外野手、是左
外野手。想像一下如果尻佛可以站CF的情形。」Boras說道。

Boras went on to mention a few other differences between Ellsbury and
Crawford.

“Carl Crawford never had success in Boston. And he never won a ring in
Boston,'' Boras said. Plus, "Crawford never hit twenty home runs, and Jacoby
hit 30," Boras added.

「尻佛不曾在紅襪取得成功、不曾在波士頓拿過戒指，還有尻佛從沒單季20轟過，而
Ellsbury打過30支。」

Boras also said that Ellsbury's "ceilings" of 30 homers (32 to be precise)
and 70 stolen bases, though done in different years, are "unheard of." Plus,
Boras pointed out that Ellsbury's .927 steal percentage this year ranks among
the best alltime for someone with 50 attempts, and that few of the best best
basestealers have been center fielders.

Boras還說Ellsbury的「天花板」是30轟70盜，這是從沒看過的事情。(不過這兩個紀錄
不是在同一年)，還有超過50盜的球員中，Ellsbury擁有最高的.927成功率；更重要的是
很少有頂尖盜壘者是中外野手。

Ellsbury won a ring with the Red Sox in 2007, hitting .438 in the World
Series with a 1.188 OPS, and his overall career postseason average is .261.

2007年世界大賽中Ellsbury繳出.438打擊率、1.188 OPS的成績；生涯季後賽打擊率.261。

It's been quite a positive run for him in Boston. But it's quite possible he
may not be so long for Boston.

Ellsbury在紅襪的表現很優異，但也有可能要告一段落了。

Word is that owner Red Sox John Henry, who just saved himself some money with
the eminently reasonable deal for star second baseman Pedroia, very much
likes Ellsbury, and Ellsbury is said to have interest in staying, as well.
But like usual it may come down to dollars and cents.

剛從小派合約省下不少錢的John Henry表示他很喜歡Ellsbury，而Ellsbury也有續留意願
。不幸的是最後通常由錢決定結果。

It isn't known what Boston's offer was last winter, but Boston's baseball
executives are said to continue to see merit in their “mid-range” winter
strategy of a year ago, which is no surprise since it's helped catapult them
into first place after their rough 2012 season.

現在仍不清楚紅襪上次給的合約內容，不過據說紅襪有意延續今年靠著「中階」市場得到
成功的策略。今年如此的成功，會延續這種策略不令人意外。

And Boston honchos seemed to be preparing for the possibility of losing
Ellsbury when they held tight to center field prospect Jackie Bradley Jr. at
the trade deadline. They instead traded shortstop Jose Iglesias quite
possibly in part because of their worries about an Ellsbury defection. One
Boston-connected person said he believes Bradley is even better in center
than Ellsbury, though it's obvious Bradley is as yet unproven as a
major-league hitter.

還有紅襪也已經準備好Ellsbury走時的備案─Jackie Bradley。他們選擇交易掉鷹俠，正
是因為怕失去Ellsbury。有些紅襪相關人士甚至相信JBJ比Ellsbury更優，雖然他還是個
尚未證明身手的菜鳥。

The one knock on Elllsbury, other than he's showed big power in only one
year, has been about his ability to stay healthy. But while he's missed
significant time in two seasons, Boras pointed out that his injuries were
related to freak mishaps.

除了砲瓦只在一年出現之外，另一個疑慮是健康問題。但雖然他有兩季缺賽很久，但
Boras指出那是意外。

“He has the genetics, like Johnny Damon. He's a durable player,” Boras
said. “The only [significant] injuries he's had are collision injuries. They
were due to exterior forces.”

「他有著像Damon一樣的基因，他是個耐操的球員。他受到的大傷都是因碰撞造成的─都
是外力。」

Speaking of exterior forces, the issue ultimately will be about the
marketplace.

說到外力，這個問題最終會影響市場價值。

Ellsbury hasn't hurt himself with a typical season at age 29; he's hitting
.296 with eight homers, 51 stolen bases, 88 runs and a .775 OPS. Those are
very close to his career averages. His career percentages are .297 and .788,
and in his three previous full seasons, he's averaged 104 runs, 53 stolen
bases and 16 home runs (including his big 2011).

Ellsbury在典型的球季(29歲，今年)時沒有受傷，他打出.296、八轟、51盜、88分以及
.775 OPS，這跟生涯平均(.297 BA, .788 OPS)很接近；過去三個完整球季的平均則是
104分、53盜、16轟。

The market should aid Ellsbury since many teams are awash in cash following
another profitable year, and few stars populate the marketplace. After
free-agent gem Robinson Cano, Ellsbury is seen as the player likely to land
the next biggest contract. Among outfielders, there isn't a deep roster but
rather a select few stars, including also Shin-Soo Choo, Hunter Pence, Nelson
Cruz, Carlos Beltran and Curtis Granderson.

Ellsbury的市場價值應該會隨其他球隊的搶奪而水漲船高，也少有球員能爭搶他的市場地
位；Ellsbury很有可能成為第二貴的FA( < Cano)；剩下的外野手FA只有Shin-Soo Choo,
Hunter Pence, Nelson Cruz, Carlos Beltran and Curtis Granderson。

--
＊Athletic frame.
＊High baseball IQ. Xander
＊Smooth, fluid swing. Bogaerts
＊Elite batspeed. #01
＊Strong and explosive hands.
＊Above-average-to-better power ceiling, potential 30 home run bat.

--