BA Top 10 Prospects - 美國職棒

Jim Callis's Red Sox Top 10 chat:



@Jaypers413 (IL): When are we likely to find out what compensation for
Theo's departure will be? What type of prospect are you expecting they
will receive?

Jim Callis: I think the over/under on the Theo compensation is slightly
earlier than never. I'd assume we'd know by spring training, but I also
would have assumed that we would have known long before now. I'm not
anticipating that it will be a significant prospect. At this point, it
wouldn't surprise me at all if the players isn't on the Cubs Top 30 and
wouldn't make the Red Sox Top 30, and I wrote both lists.



Ben (Leland Grove): How far down the list has Lars Anderson fallen,
and do you see him as trade bait?

Jim Callis: Anderson barely made the Top 30 this year, and he needs a
trade to get a chance to play regularly. There's still some potential
there, but he has yet to prove he can hit lefthanders or have enough power
to be a regular first baseman on a good team. As a perennial contender,
the Red Sox aren't going to give him the big league at-bats to find out.



Grant (NYC): Who is the real Ranaudo, in your opinion - the one the
Sox drafted, or the one who had his struggles this past season?

Jim Callis: I think Ranaudo got a bit of a bum rap this year. After having
elbow problems in 2010, he made 26 starts and pitched 127 innings without
a hitch. He was as good as advertised while making his pro debut in low
Class A, and while he hit a wall in July (to be expected in his first full
pro season after an abbreviated 2010), he pitched well in August. I still
see the makings of a solid No. 3 starter.



Ben (Leland Grove): Stolmy Pimentel - prospect or suspect?

Jim Callis: Still young enough (22 this year) to be a prospect, but a
suspect after a terrible 2011. He threw harder but otherwise regressed
across the board. Hard to count on him being more than a reliever right
now.



Frank (Chicago): How many of these guys would you think are top 100
worthy?

Jim Callis: When I put together my personal Top 50 list for the Handbook,
I didn't list a single Red Sox prospect. I believe a case can be made for
Middlebrooks, Bogaerts, Swihart, Ranaudo, Brentz and Jacobs to make the
Top 100, though I doubt the consensus BA list will have six Red Sox on it.



Morrie (New Joisey): Was Iglesias the system's biggest disappointment
this season, and is he still in your 30?

Jim Callis: Iglesias almost made the Top 10, but I ultimately put him at
No. 12 because I couldn't find a scout outside the organization who
believed at all in his bat. That's a little harsh, because going to
Triple-A at 21 wasn't completely fair to him. Given the degree of
difficulty, I'd actually call Drake Britton and Stolmy Pimentel biggest
disappointments in 2011.



Harry (Boston, ma): What does Drake Britton need to work on? Still in
your top 30?

Jim Callis: A lot, starting with mound presence, control, command and
consistency with his secondary pitches. He's still in the Top 30, in the
teens, but as with Pimentel I have a hard time banking on him being more
than a reliever at this point.



Eric (St Louis, MO): Did Brandon Workman get any support for the top
10 this year, and were you impressed with his mechanics?

Jim Callis: It's not necessarily fair, but Workman was the system's most
overlooked prospect in 2011. He had a very solid pro debut and got almost
no attention. He didn't make the Top 10 because the Red Sox have too much
depth, but he might have in a lesser system. He did a good job of
repeating his delivery, throwing strikes and operating on a steep downhill
plane.



Tyrone (Boston): I am following the saga of Ryan Westmoreland, as are
many others I know. Is it your belief he can one day play as well as
he did before his operation?

Jim Callis: I honestly have no idea. The way I look at it is that if
baseball doesn't work out, he'll still be able to lead a normal and
productive life, something that was in jeopardy before his brain surgery.



Ryan (Boston): What did scouts have to say about 3B Kolbrin Vitek?

Jim Callis: The big thing they want to see is more power if he's going to
stay at third base. I bet he winds up in the outfield in the long run,
because his feet and hands are questionable in the infield, but he may run
well enough to play center field.



Ike (Tampa, FL): Had he signed, about where would Senquez Golson have
fit in on your list? How disappointed are you that he didn't?

Jim Callis: The Red Sox remain bitterly disappointed that they couldn't
sign Golson for a seven-figure offer last August. But he wanted to play
football and baseball at Mississippi. He clearly would have been the best
athlete in the system, though at the same time he would have been quite
raw. I likely would have ranked him in the 19-25 range. I had Henry Owens
at 18, and he would have been behind Owens.



Claire (Montpelier, VT): What can you tell us about Williams Jerez and
his athleticism? Did he find a place on your top 30?

Jim Callis: He's one of the better athletes in the system, but is too raw
at this point to make the Top 30. Five-tool potential if it all works out,
though.



Laura (Washington DC): Is Cody Kukuk likely a SP or RP, and what did
Theo see in him?

Jim Callis: Kukuk is a projectable lefthander whom the Sox will develop as
a starter. How consistent he becomes with his command and secondary
pitches, the quality of which varied last spring when he was a high school
senior, will determine his ultimate role. I think he's one of the best
sleepers in the system.



Benny (Columbus, GA): I went to school with Jordan Weems and was
pleasantly surprised to see him go as high as he did. What's the word
on him, and can I see him in Greenville this year?

Jim Callis: He's a projectable catcher who needs to get a lot stronger.
Solid ceiling but a long ways from reaching it. He might spend 2012 in
Lowell, so you might have to wait another year to see him in the SAL.



Carlos (Albuquerque, NM): With a surplus of good 3B in their system,
where does Travis Shaw fit in, and does he have any above average
tools?

Jim Callis: Power and arm strength are his best tools, I'd call them more
solid than plus. He's not especially agile, so Boston's third-base depth
could push him to first base down the road.



Paul (Hicksville, NY): Already pre-ordered my Prospect Handbook. In
the meantime, can you tell us whose farm system will rank higher -
Boston or the Yanks?

Jim Callis: The Yankees. They have better prospects at the top (Montero,
Banuelos), though the Red Sox have better depth.



Morrie (New Joisey): If you stacked up this year's crop of ten vs.
last year's, which one wins out?

Jim Callis: This year's top 10 looks a lot better because Iglesias,
Britton, Doubront, Pimentel, Anderson, Vitek and Tejeda all were eligible
again and fell out of the latest edition.



Jim ONeill (New London): How does Bogaerts' upside compare to other
young high ceiling guys like Sano, Yelich, Profar and Marisnick?

Jim Callis: He's most comparable to Sano, in that both have impressive
power and likely will wind up at third base. Sano's power is a cut above
Bogaerts', however. Though I ranked Middlebrooks No. 1 in the Red Sox
system, I easily could have gone with Bogaerts if I leaned a lot more
toward ceiling than certainty. Bogaerts and Swihart have the highest
ceilings in the system.



Richard L. (Portland, Oregon): Who do you think has the most power and
will turn out the best from the '09 IFA class? Bogaerts, Sano, or
Sanchez?

Jim Callis: Sano and Sano.



Karl of Delaware (Georgetown, Delaware): Of the four Red Sox 1st round
draft choices in 2011, three made your top 10 list (Barnes, Swigert,
and Bradley). Where did the other guy (Henry Owens) end up on your
list, and what are you comments on him?

Jim Callis: As I alluded to earlier, Owens was 18th. I could see him
becoming a No. 3 starter once he gets stronger. His feel for pitching
stands out more than his present stuff.



Ben (Leland Grove): With Boston picking 24th this year, could the
Cecchini brothers possibly see a family reunion in their future? Who
has the higher ceiling between the two?

Jim Callis: I don't think Gavin is going to last 24 picks. I may be
Garin's biggest booster, but Gavin has a higher ceiling because he's a
similar offensive talent with a legitimate chance to stay at shortstop.



PT (IBC): I see Alex Wilson listed as having the best fastball and
best slider in the system. How close to the top 10 was he and do you
see him starting in Boston or plying his two pitch mix in the back of
the bullpen?

Jim Callis: He was actually No. 11. I think he has a better chance to be a
starter than he gets credit for, though I think he eventually winds up as
a late-inning reliever in Boston.



Ken (Lakewood CA): Hi Jim and thanks. Regarding Lavarnway - with the
signing of Shoppach, do you think he goes to AAA and continues to work
on his receiving skills? He's not going to DH with Ortiz around - and
he's sure not going to play 1B (Adrian Gonzalez).

Jim Callis: I could see Lavarnway as a third catcher/righthanded DH (I
know Ortiz his LHP well last year)/backup first baseman, but if you do
that, how do you get any better sense if he can catch on a regular or
semiregular basis in the majors? I'm guessing he goes back to Triple-A to
work on his receiving.



Roger (Greenville, SC): How long can Bogaerts stay at SS? Another year
or 2 or 5+ years?

Jim Callis: He's pretty fluid there, though he lacks true shortstop
quickness and is going to slow down some as he fills out. He'll definitely
stay at shortstop in 2012 and because he's only 19, the Red Sox don't have
to rush any decisions about his future.



Roger (Greenville, SC): Please explain to me how Jacobs has fringy
speed. I saw half a dozen games in Greenville, and Jacobs won multiple
games with his speed and aggressiveness on the bases. I'm no scout,
but I'd call it plus now and likely average when he fills out.

Jim Callis: The scouts I talked to think he's slow out of the batter's box
and better once he gets going. None of them thought speed would be a big
part of his game at upper levels.



Brian (Wisconsin): Hello Jim, How far has Jose Iglesias stock dropped
from last season and do you still think he is the Red Sox SS of the
future? Thank you for the Chat, Brian

Jim Callis: His stock has dropped, at least outside the organization,
where there are major questions about his bat. His stellar defense still
makes him Boston's shortstop of the future and a possible solid regular,
though he probably will bat at the bottom of the lineup.



Bill D (Boston): Jim, thanks for doing this chat. How do you see the
changes in the draft rules impacting the Red Sox drafting strategy
(i.e. focusing on tough signs drafted in later rounds and signing
those draftees deemed to have value with significantly over-slot
bonuses)?

Jim Callis: The new changes may hurt the Red Sox more than any other team.
After the compensation rules change in 2012, they're not going to have
many if any extra picks and they're going to have one of the lowest draft
signing caps of any team. No club was as aggressive outside the first
round as Boston was, and that's probably going to change because the
penalties for excessive spending are prohibitive.



Craig (Charlotte): Do you feel Blake Swihart will continue to catch or
will they expedite him via right field?

Jim Callis: The Red Sox definitely want him to catch. If he struggles
somewhat, they may decide to expedite his bat, though they think he has
the athleticism to make catching work. They also think the bat is
potentially special, so we'll see.



Paul D. (San Francisco): Jim, Jackie Bradley Jr. had such a great work
ethic and natural talent as a centerfielder at South Carolina - yet
the wrist injury took a toll on his college performance last year.
He's not listed as a starter in 2015 - but do you think he can recover
and become a solid major league regular?

Jim Callis: That 2015 lineup is more of a depth chart than anything, and
it doesn't assume any free-agent departures. So while I wasn't going to
put Bradley over Ellsbury in center, I do think Bradley can and will
become a solid major league regular. He'll be a plus defender with a solid
bat.



Lloyd (Lakewood): Hi Jim, What do the Sox think of Sean Coyle's season
and future?

Jim Callis: He's an organization favorite with a chance to become a solid
regular. He needs to get a little more disciplined at the plate, but he
deserves credit from bouncing back from a broken jaw to hit .268/.375/.460
in the second half as a 19-year-old in low Class A. He can steal a few
bases and become a solid defender at second base, too.



cy (western Mass.): Hi Jim, thanks for keeping Sox fans sane during
the long winter. It seems as though the top of the Sox list isn't as
high voltage as some organizations, but that there is uniform quality
all the way through #10. Agree?

Jim Callis: Totally agree.



Ben (Fort Myers, FL): How did Jose Iglesias' stock drop so much? The
red sox pushed him to aaa in his first full season and while he had a
poor season overall with the bat isn't there room for projection
considering is age and lack of experience.

Jim Callis: Here's the problem: He's ultra-aggressive at the plate and
also excels at putting the bat on the ball, so he makes a lot of weak
contact. He may not hit more than .260 or .270, and even if he does, he
won't draw walks or hit for power or do much on the bases. He could be a
.270/.310/.320 hitter, and scouts from other organizations think that
might be generous. So while he's a fabulous defender, there are few fans
of his bat.



Eric (Oak Brook, IL): Jim, what are the current expectations for Felix
Doubront? Injury cost him a good opportunity last year, will the Red
Sox give him a shot to start or is he bullpen bound? Thanks.

Jim Callis: The Red Sox thought they could count on him last season, and
Doubront didn't show up in spring training in great shape and was rarely
at 100 percent health all year. He has had conditioning issues in the
past, and the Red Sox weren't pleased. He's still in their plans but I
don't think they're going to count on him heavily. I'd guess bullpen for
him.



Chris (CT): Now that Miles Head, Raul Alcantara and Kyle Weiland have
been traded, what three players will now be in the top 30 that were
not there before?

Jim Callis: Those trades happened after the transaction deadline for the
Handbook, so they're all on the Red Sox Top 30 there. Cody Kukuk is in our
supplement for people who buy the book directly from us, so he would have
been the next guy on the Top 30. The next candidates would have been
Miguel Celestino, Chris Balcom-Miller and Jeremy Hazelbaker.



Morris (VA): What are your thoughts on Madison Younginer so far? Will
he step up his game in 2012? When should the Red Sox move him to the
bullpen?

Jim Callis: Great arm, still has a lot to figure out about pitching,
probably destined for the bullpen.



Noel (Portland, OR): Aren't you a little low on Ryan Lavarnway? He's
done nothing but hit at every level, and show good OBP skills.

Jim Callis: But where does he play? I haven't talked to anyone who's
convinced he can catch on a regular basis in the major leagues, though to
his credit he has improved from dreadful to adequate since turning pro. He
works hard at it. But it's also telling that after my list went to print,
the Red Sox signed Kelly Shoppach and relegated Lavarnway to third-catcher
status, at least to open 2012. If he's not a catcher, then he's a
righthanded-hitting first baseman, which severely decreases his value. I'm
just not sold he's ever going to be more than a backup as a catcher.



Kevin (New Jersey): Jim, Happy New Year! Seems to me your thinking is
that Bogaerts is destined for the outfield. Will his bat play in right
field if he develops as expected?

Jim Callis: If his bat develops as expected, he should be able to play
anywhere. He's also athletic enough to give him plenty of options. Third
base is also a logical destination, though the Red Sox have several
options there.



Will, Xavier, & Garin (Red Sox 2013 hot corner): Please settle our
disagreement - who has the highest ceiling; who's likely to stay in
the organization, but at another position, and who is likely to be a
valuable trade chip, due to being blocked by one of the other three?

Jim Callis: Bogaerts has the highest ceiling. If Middlebrooks stays at
third base, I think Bogaerts goes to right field and Cecchini becomes
trade bait.



Big Dave (AR): What's the word these days on Jose Vinicio?

Jim Callis: Quality defender, still needs to get a lot stronger because
he's only 5-foot-11 and 150 pounds. He won't be 19 until July, so he may
not make his full-season debut until 2013.



Jeff (Madison): If you were the GM of the Red Sox would you make a
trade for Matt Garza? If so what players would you make available?
While keeping in mind that the compensation for Cubs President of
Baseball Operations Theo Epstein has yet be resolved. Is there a
match? Thanks for answering this question.

Jim Callis: I might not, to be honest. It's not going to be as easy to add
talent internationally and through the draft like the Red Sox have been
doing, and I wouldn't be looking to give up three or so quality prospects
for a pitcher who's more of a No. 3 starter than a No. 1 and who is
getting more and more expensive each year.



Bill D (Boston): Why is Bradley rated so high, particularly when it
seems that he only has one above-average skill (defense)? Is the Red
Sox system that weak right now?

Jim Callis: That's unfair to Bradley, who should get a mulligan for a 2011
season in which he was hurt and tried to do too much with the toned-down
metal bats. I see him as a Gold Glove-caliber center fielder who has
average to solid hitting ability, power and speed. That's a pretty good
package.



Tony (Kendall): Hi Jim, Is Heiker Menesse a prospect?

Jim Callis: He is. I snuck him onto the list at No. 30, and he was the guy
on the list whom I knew the least about. He projects as a line drive-
hitting utilityman.



Marty (Hartford, UCONN): Its hard to believe we were able to get
Andrew Bailey without giving up Bryce Brentz, especially considering
Oakland's lack of power hitters. Is that trade an all time fleecing,
considering they got a 2 time All Star in Bailey without giving up a
Top 10 Prospect?

Jim Callis: I wouldn't call it a fleecing, because Bailey was hurt each of
the last two years and the A's were financially motivated, but the Red Sox
didn't trade anyone they're going to miss. I like Reddick, but Boston
apparently didn't see him as a regular going forward. Miles Head can hit
but doesn't profile well, and Raul Alcantara has an intriguing arm but is
years away.



George (Warwick, RI): How do the front office changes effect the
philosophical approach to scouting, drafting, player development, if
at all.

Jim Callis: I don't think the front office changes will affect Boston's
approach at all because Ben Cherington, Mike Hazen, Amiel Sawdaye and Co.
have been there for years. The new CBA will affect the approach, however.



Bill D (Easton): Which pitchers do you see helping the Red Sox the
most in 2012? Wilson? Doubrant? or some dark horse?

Jim Callis: Wilson is the clear favorite.



Bill D (Boston): If you had to chose two potential breakout candidates
(one pitcher, one position player) for the Red Sox in 2012 who would
they be?

Jim Callis: Position player: Garin Cecchini, who should finally be healthy
and get in a full season. Pitcher: Kyle Stroup, the last pick in the 2008
draft.



Ben (Fall River, MA): I'm a little surprised by the placement of Matt
Barnes, who was ranked 13 overall in BA's pre-draft rankings, and who
most consider a top 3 prospect in this system and its top pitcher.
Also surprised that, in the top 100 comment above, Barnes didn't get
any mention for possible inclusion. What's your outlook for him and
your thoughts on this?

Jim Callis: The fact that I ranked Barnes eighth and don't see him in the
Top 100 shouldn't be considered a knock on him. I like him a lot, and he
had one of the best fastball-curve combos in the 2011 draft. I see him as
a likely No. 3 starter, possibly a No. 2 if all goes well. Wouldn't
surprise me at all if he's near the top of our Red Sox 2013 Top 10.



George (Warwick, RI): Internal option not named "Alex Wilson" most
likely to help at the MLB level, during 2012?...sleeper?

Jim Callis: I'll give you two deep sleepers: Chris Hernandez and Chris
Martin.



Alex (Miami): Boston system is well known for having very good depth,
but where does it rank overall?

Jim Callis: In our preliminary rankings in the Handbook, we had the Red
Sox at No. 10. Which is a tribute to their depth, considering they don't
have a slam-dunk Top 50 overall prospect.



Jorge Soler (Cuba): I here the Red Sox are interested, more so than in
my compatriot...what's my projection, and would I make the 2011 Top
Ten (or Twenty) if I had signed before you completed your list, Mr.
Callis?

Jim Callis: As I mentioned in a recent Ask BA, I would rank Soler near
Bubba Starling . . . and I had Starling at No. 19 on my personal Top 50.



http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/
organization-top-10-prospects/2012/2612790.html



===



1. Will Middlebrooks, 3b


Background: Middlebrooks had multiple options when he came out of Liberty-
Eylau High (Texarkana, Texas) in 2007. He threw low 90s fastballs and
occasionally spun plus curveballs as a pitcher, and he drew interest from
college football programs as both a quarterback and a punter. His future
appeared even brighter at third base than on the mound or the gridiron,
however, and that was the path he chose. Considered a supplemental first-
round talent, Middlebrooks slid to the fifth round because of signability
concerns and a commitment to Texas A&M, and he landed an above-slot
$925,000 bonus. He has moved slowly but surely through the Red Sox system,
improving his performance in each of his four pro seasons. He had his best
year yet in 2011, when managers rated him as the best hitting prospect in
the Double-A Eastern League. He went 1-for-2 in the Futures Game, earned
EL all-star honors and reached Triple-A Pawtucket in August. He finished
his year by smacking four homers in 13 Arizona Fall League games before
straining a ligament in his left hand chasing a foul ball, an injury that
didn't require surgery. Boston added him to its 40-man roster in November.


Scouting Report: If scouts drew up a blueprint for a third baseman, it
would look like Middlebrooks. He has the size, athleticism, power and arm
strength coveted at the hot corner. He continues to learn more about his
swing and increase his home run production each year, with more to come in
the future. Right now, most of his homers come to the opposite field and
are line drives that carry out of the park. With his bat speed and the
strength in his 6-foot-4, 200-pound frame, he could hit 25 or more homers
a season if he turns on more pitches and adds more loft to his stroke.
Middlebrooks is an aggressive hitter who doesn't walk much and may not hit
more than .275 or so in the majors, though that's an acceptable trade-off
for everything else he offers. He needs to manage at-bats better and make
sure his load and timing don't get out of sync. While he remains streaky,
his hot spells are lasting longer and his cold spells are ending more
quickly. He's doing a better job of waiting for pitches he can hammer
rather than getting himself out early in counts. He also understands that
he's at his best when he lets his power come naturally, though he can get
home run-conscious at times. Middlebrooks is a below-average runner but
moves well for his size and isn't a liability on the bases. He's an asset
at third base, where he's extremely agile and has a cannon for his arm. He
competes well and has emerged as a leader in the system.



2. Xander Bogaerts, ss


Background: Signed for $410,000 out of Aruba, Bogaerts' 2010 pro debut
made him Boston's most highly anticipated international prospect since
Hanley Ramirez. When he came to the United States and dominated in
extended spring training, the Red Sox sent him to low Class A Greenville
at age 18 last June, and he responded by smashing 16 homers in 72 games.
His twin brother Jair is a first baseman in the system.


Scouting Report: Bogaerts doesn't look like a teenager when he's in the
batter's box. He has an easy swing loaded with natural power, and he makes
hard contact to all fields. While he still needs to learn the strike zone,
he has already shown the ability to make adjustments and handle breaking
balls. He could be a .280 hitter with 30 home runs in the majors, and that
might be setting the bar low. Bogaerts has fluid actions at shortstop, but
he lacks the quick feet for the position and will eventually outgrow it
once he fills out. With his plus athleticism, average speed and a strong
arm, he'll be able to transition to third base or right field.




http://blogs.providencejournal.com/sports/red-sox/2012/01/
baseball-america-names-middlebrooks-top-red-sox-prospect.html


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