狀況內與狀況外 - 棒球

我好像把前一篇弄得太枯燥... 來個比較有趣的好了.

如果有個念機率或者念統計的人跟你說...
「機率（統計）這門學問的用途不是在預測未來. 」
那只有兩種可能...
第一種是他在騙你, 第二種是他在騙自己.

所以我們還是要回歸這門顯學的正途: 占卜!

== Parameters ==
NYY: G = 111, R = 660
TOR: G = 110, R = 512
小王: IP = 136.2, R = 53
Halladay: IP = 144.0, R = 69
== End of Parameters ==

2007-08-09 NYY@TOR, 其他的... 田雞不可洩漏!!

───────────────────────────────
小王 (Expected R/9 = 3.33) vs 多倫多藍鳥
───────────────────────────────────────
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
───────────────────────────────────────
1.0 - 69.086 94.635 99.360 99.942 99.996 100.000 100.000 100.000 100.000
2.0 - 47.729 83.031 96.086 99.305 99.900 99.988 99.999 100.000 100.000
3.0 - 32.974 69.557 89.851 97.356 99.437 99.899 99.984 99.998 100.000
4.0 - 22.781 56.479 81.404 93.693 98.238 99.583 99.914 99.985 99.998
5.0 - 15.738 44.840 71.745 88.328 95.994 98.829 99.702 99.933 99.987
5.1 - 13.913 41.354 68.416 86.208 94.981 98.441 99.579 99.900 99.979
5.2 - 12.299 38.074 65.082 83.947 93.831 97.973 99.420 99.853 99.967
6.0 - 10.873 34.999 61.765 81.563 92.545 97.418 99.220 99.792 99.950
6.1 - 9.612 32.125 58.489 79.072 91.124 96.770 98.974 99.711 99.927
6.2 - 8.497 29.447 55.271 76.494 89.575 96.025 98.675 99.609 99.896
7.0 - 7.512 26.958 52.127 73.846 87.902 95.179 98.319 99.480 99.856
7.1 - 6.641 24.650 49.070 71.145 86.112 94.230 97.899 99.321 99.803
7.2 - 5.870 22.515 46.110 68.409 84.215 93.177 97.413 99.128 99.736
8.0 - 5.190 20.543 43.255 65.653 82.219 92.021 96.854 98.897 99.652
8.1 - 4.588 18.726 40.512 62.892 80.134 90.761 96.220 98.623 99.549
8.2 - 4.056 17.054 37.885 60.139 77.971 89.402 95.507 98.303 99.423
9.0 - 3.585 15.518 35.377 57.409 75.741 87.944 94.714 97.933 99.272
───────────────────────────────────────


───────────────────────────────
Halladay (Expected R/9 = 5.25) vs. New York Yankees
───────────────────────────────────────
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
───────────────────────────────────────
1.0 - 55.782 88.343 97.846 99.695 99.965 99.997 100.000 100.000 100.000
2.0 - 31.117 67.443 88.647 96.899 99.307 99.869 99.979 99.997 100.000
3.0 - 17.358 47.753 74.367 89.901 96.702 99.084 99.779 99.953 99.991
4.0 - 9.682 32.290 58.682 79.222 91.212 96.811 98.990 99.717 99.929
5.0 - 5.401 21.165 44.168 66.547 82.876 92.407 97.043 98.976 99.681
5.1 - 4.446 18.287 39.832 62.190 79.591 90.425 96.046 98.546 99.519
5.2 - 3.660 15.766 35.788 57.863 76.118 88.195 94.852 97.998 99.299
6.0 - 3.013 13.565 32.042 53.614 72.501 85.731 93.454 97.317 99.009
6.1 - 2.480 11.649 28.597 49.481 68.783 83.054 91.847 96.491 98.636
6.2 - 2.042 9.986 25.445 45.496 65.004 80.186 90.033 95.507 98.170
7.0 - 1.681 8.548 22.577 41.685 61.204 77.155 88.017 94.358 97.596
7.1 - 1.383 7.306 19.980 38.066 57.420 73.989 85.810 93.038 96.906
7.2 - 1.139 6.235 17.639 34.651 53.683 70.717 83.422 91.545 96.088
8.0 - 0.937 5.315 15.537 31.448 50.022 67.370 80.871 89.878 95.135
8.1 - 0.772 4.526 13.656 28.460 46.462 63.976 78.175 88.041 94.041
8.2 - 0.635 3.849 11.978 25.686 43.023 60.563 75.353 86.041 92.800
9.0 - 0.523 3.270 10.487 23.124 39.720 57.159 72.427 83.885 91.410
───────────────────────────────────────

好啦, 其實是怕講越多錯越多............:Q
講解一下怎麼查表好了...
縱軸局數, 橫軸失分.
表裡面是「橫軸」的「累進機率」, 請不要看錯方向.

譬如小王投 7.1 局, 掉 2 分以下的機率是 49.070%.
至於 Halladay 投滿七局掉三分以下的機率是 41.685%.

請自行決定你相信哪一格... 就是說, 賭 P 幣賭到傾家蕩產不要怪我. :D

另外, 如果跟你手上的各家預測不同... 要相信他們. :P
畢竟人家的模型都是七八階甚至十幾階近似...
而我的懶人模型呢, 只能算第一階近似.

我發誓絕對不編輯文章............當然, 先發換人的時候例外. :P

PS: 這兩篇都是在編輯器裡頭打好才貼上來, 否則的話表單會出人命.
所以請不要查詢本文值幾個銀幣──破產的不負責, 笨死的也不負責.


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新詩練習：新鮮。踩破初春裡的狗大便；不經意的滄桑，滿溢著嫩黃的喜悅。

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