太空人真的是被故意砸嗎? - 美國職棒

https://bre.is/dbR6DXEM

The narrative is spreading rapidly in the early days of spring training, told
with a certain taste of glee. The Astros are getting hit by a lot of pitches!
The cheaters are getting their comeuppance! They're already being targeted
and it's not even the regular season! There are Twitter accounts with names
like Astros* Bean Counter and 2020 Astros Shame Tour tracking all the hit
batters. Non-sports sites are publishing videos on Facebook. The "Today" show
did a segment on it Friday morning. My friend Dan tells me that even his mom
mentioned to him that the Astros are getting hit a lot.

故事已在早前的春訓期間被以某種帶有喜悅的方式迅速傳開。休士頓太空人要吃一堆觸身
球了!這些作弊仔正在接受他們的報應!他們早就已經被鎖定了，而且這只是春訓還沒開季
!推特上有一些帳號像是「太空人*統計專家」、「2020太空人羞恥巡迴之旅」正在追蹤這
些被丟的打者。一些非體育網站也在Facebook上發表影片，「今日」節目就在周五早上的
節目中將這些片段分門別類。我的好友Dan跟我說連他媽都跟他提到太空人正在吃一堆觸
身球。

The narrative isn't completely wrong, but let's put this in some context. As
always, context is important and hyperbole can be misleading.

這些故事不全然是錯的，但讓我們考慮一下整件事情的脈絡。就像每件事一樣，脈絡是非
常重要的，一些太過誇張的說法可能會誤導他人。

Entering Friday's spring training games, the Astros have been hit by seven
pitches. That's no longer the most; the Cardinals have been hit by eight
pitches -- and they certainly are not being targeted for anything this
spring. Four other teams have been hit by six pitches, including the Tigers,
and nobody is purposely throwing at batters from a team that lost 114 games
last season.

統計至周五的春訓熱身賽，太空人隊被7顆觸身球伺候。但那並不是最多---紅雀隊吃了8顆
---我確定他們這個春天並沒有因為任何事情而被「鎖定」。除了太空人和紅雀外，還有4
支球隊也被丟了6次，包括底特律老虎，大概沒人會想特別丟一支去年輸了114場球賽的球
隊。

Also, consider the seven Astros who have been hit:

再來，看看這七個被丟的球員:

-- Dustin Garneau

-- Jose Altuve

-- Alex De Goti

-- Osvaldo Duarte

-- Aledmys Diaz

-- Jake Meyers

-- Alex Bregman

OK, so we do have Altuve and Bregman. But we also have three low-level minor
leaguers; Garneau, who wasn't a member of the Astros until this season; and
Diaz, who wasn't on the Astros in 2017 or 2018. Altuve and Bregman weren't
even hit by fastballs. Altuve was hit on the foot with a breaking ball and
Bregman hit in the back by Cardinals minor leaguer Ramon Santos, who pitched
for Palm Beach in the Florida State League last season.

好，所以裡面有Altuve跟Bregman。但我們也發現三個小聯盟球員---Garneau，今年才成為
一名太空人;Diaz，2017、2018都不在太空人陣中。此外，Altuve和Bregman也不是被直球
丟中。Altuve是被一顆變化球砸到腳，Bregman則是被紅雀的小聯盟投手Ramon Santos砸到
背。

"It was a splitter. It just got away from him," Bregman said.

「那是一顆快速指叉球。他只是失投而已。」 Bregman說道

Indeed, check out the pitchers who have hit the Astros batters: Austin Voth
(Nationals), Neil Ramirez (Tigers), Anthony Castro 2 (Tigers), Jose Urena
(Marlins), Jorge Guzman (Marlins), Ramon Santos (Cardinals).

確實，觀察這些丟太空人的投手

Of the six pitchers, only three pitched in the majors in 2019. With the
exception of Urena, these are all pitchers fighting for jobs who are trying
to impress the big league brass. They're not going to intentionally throw at
batters. Castro is a Tigers minor leaguer who hit nine batters last season
and 15 in 2018.

在這六個投手中，只有三個曾經於2019在大聯盟出賽。除了Urena之外，這些投手都正在
努力投出好表現以尋求一份大聯盟工作。他們並不是故意要把球丟向打者。Castro是一名
老虎隊的小聯盟球員，在2019賽季投出9顆觸身球，在2018年賽季則丟了15次。

Urena did hit Diaz on the elbow with a fastball and he's the pitcher who
purposely hit Ronald Acuna Jr. in 2018, but it's clear from Urena's reaction
as he immediately screams in disgust at himself that he wasn't trying to hit
Diaz. Plus, why would Urena be throwing at a guy who wasn't on the team in
2017?

Urena確實用速球丟了Diaz的手肘，同時他也是2018賽季故意丟Ronald Acuna Jr.的那個人
。但從Urena的反應可以知道他並不是故意要丟Diaz的---他在投出觸身球後發出怒吼。而
且，為何Urena要丟一個2017不在太空人的球員呢?

So there really is nothing to what we've seen so far.

所以到目前為止，這些事情真的都沒甚麼好拿來做文章的。

There is plenty to write about regarding the fallout from the cheating
scandal without resorting to false narratives. Astros players are getting
loudly booed during spring training games and we've seen the video of the
Mets fan pounding a plastic garbage can in the left-field bleachers. Those
boos will only get louder in the regular season. How the Astros deal with
becoming baseball's Evil Empire will be a huge storyline once the season
begins.

關於作弊醜聞的後續效應實在有一堆可以寫，但其不包含訴諸假新聞這件事。太空人球員
在春訓期間一直被球迷噓，我們也可以看到大都會球迷在場外大聲敲垃圾桶的影片。這些
噓聲到了例行賽只會變大不會變小。太空人會怎麼處理其變成棒球界邪惡帝國將會成為賽
季初大家關注的故事。

It's also certainly possible that once the regular season begins, we will see
some pitchers throwing at Astros batters. The William Hill sportsbook put the
over/under on Astros batters getting hit by a pitch at 83.5 -- they were hit
66 times last season -- but that's not an especially large total as Mets
batters led the majors with 95 HBPs in 2019.

同樣非常可能發生的是，我們將會看到一些投手把球朝太空人打者身上丟。博彩公司The
William Hill sportbook 將太空人被擊中的高低分定在83.5---他們上一季被丟了66次
---那對於大都會球員吃的95顆來說並不算太多。

But let's wait and see if that actually happens. Because Anthony Castro
hitting Jake Meyers has nothing to do with the Astros banging garbage cans in
2017.

讓我們期待這一切到底會不會發生，因為Anthony Castro 丟 Jake Meyers 也無關太空
人2017年時bang bang 垃圾桶。


心得:

這篇分析還不錯 大家能接受嗎?

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