名人堂召換:10位現役球員往古柏鎮之路(上) - 美國職棒

By Joe Trezza MLB.com @JoeTrezz
Dec. 26th, 2017


The 2018 National Baseball Hall of Fame class will be announced on Jan. 24,
and with it, a new group of legends will be revealed.

2018年的名人堂將會於1月24日公布,


That makes now as good a time as any to ask a speculative question: Which
current big leaguers might join them one day in Cooperstown? We're not
talking about the easy ones:Ichiro Suzuki Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, the few
into shoo-ins. We're talking about the borderline candidates, the stars who
may well be on their way, but aren't there yet.


這讓現在是個非常好的時機提出一個假設性問題:哪位現役大聯盟選手未來有可能加入古
柏鎮行列?我們不是在討論能輕輕鬆鬆進名人堂的,例如:鈴木一朗,Albert Pujols,
Miguel Cabrera,或是其他進名人堂十拿九穩的超級球星.這邊要討論的是在候選人邊緣的
球星,他們可能已經在前往名人堂的路上,但是還沒到達那個高度



We ran a similar exercise last winter, but this year's version comes with a
twist. Which borderline Hall of Famers actually improved their chances during
the 2017 season? Whose Cooperstown resume looks better than it did a year
ago? These 10 names should ring a bell. (Note: The historical comps below are
informed by similarity scores devised by Bill James and, in this case, are
the retired player who plays the same position and is the most statistically
similar through their current age.)



去年也做過相似的議題,但是今年版本有點改變.哪個在名人堂邊緣的球員在2017年提升了
進入名人堂的機會?哪位球星的履歷看起來比去年還要好?這10個名字喚起了你的印象(備
註:下方的歷史球星比較是根據Bill James所設計出的相似分數.在這個情況下,是指那些
跟現役球員同位置且在數據上最相似的退休球員)


1.Zack Greinke, RHP, age 34
Career: 172-107, 3.40 ERA, 56.9 bWAR
2017: 17-7, 3.20 ERA, 6 bWAR
Historical comp: Mike Mussina

When we explored the topic of active, borderline Hall of Fame candidates last
winter, I wrote of Greinke: "He'll need to finish his career with more
seasons akin to his 2011-15 stretch than his lackluster first season in
Arizona if he wants to bolster his dark horse candidacy for Cooperstown."



That's exactly what he did in 2017. In his second year with the D-backs,
Greinke shaved more than a run off his 2016 ERA, eclipsed the 200-inning
mark, made another All-Star team, won another Gold Glove and placed fourth in
the NL Cy Young Award voting. In the process, he entrenched his place in any
conversation about the defining pitchers of his era.



去年冬天當提到現役在名人堂人選邊緣球星的主題時,我寫下Greinke:"他需要持續投出類
似他2011-15,而不是他在亞利桑那那種乏善可陳的第一個球季,如果他想要加強他以黑馬
之姿候選人進軍古柏鎮的機會
而這就是他在2017年所做到的.他在響尾蛇的第二個球季,他不只擺脫了2016低迷的防禦率
,200局的投球,再次入選明星隊,贏得一個金手套,甚至在賽揚票選中名列第四名.他用了他
的防禦率表現,鞏固了他的位置



2.Max Scherzer, RHP, age 33
Career: 141-75, 3.30 ERA, 45.6 bWAR
2017: 16-6, 2.51 ERA, 7.6 bWAR
Historical comp: Johan Santana

Scherzer's third Cy Young Award puts him in rare company. Ten pitchers in
history have won as many, and of them, only Roger Clemens and Clayton Kershaw
aren't enshrined in Cooperstown (yet).

With the demise of the 300-game winner, the criteria for Cooperstown-worthy
starting pitchers has shifted in recent years, and will only continue to do
so. By the time Scherzer's name appears on the ballot, he'll likely be judged
on the strengths of his dominant peak -- now entering its seventh season.



Scherzer 第三座的賽揚獎,讓他很難跟其他人做比較.10位歷史上曾經贏得3座賽揚獎的投
手,就只有Roger Clemens和 Clayton Kershaw還沒在古柏鎮刻上他們的名字

當300勝投手已消逝於現今中,進入名人堂的標準在近年有了新的變化,而且只可能持續
朝這方向前進,當Scherzer的名字出現在選票中時,大家最有可能會評斷他在巔峰時最具主
宰力的表現--現在準備進入他的第七個極具主宰力的球季



3.Craig Kimbrel, RHP, age 29
Career: 1.80 ERA, 291 saves, 14.8 K/9, 18 bWAR
2017: 1.43 ERA, 35 saves, 16.4 K/9, 3.6 bWAR
Historical comp: Jonathan Papelbon

Relievers are still rare in Cooperstown, and debates over their value in
modern, highly specialized roles rage on. They are the main reason Trevor
Hoffman, the National League's all-time saves leader, isn't in yet. If
Hoffman is enshrined this year, he'll be the first full-time reliever
selected since Goose Gossage in 2008.

Specialized or not, few have been better than Kimbrel since he debuted in
2010, and even fewer dominated the way he did in 2017. Kimbrel's fate will
ultimately be decided by the collective philosophy of the voting pool, but at
the very least, his exceptional '17 campaign may be what catapults him into
the conversation.



現在的名人堂中很少救援投手,現在大家都在爭論他們的價值,特別是在於他們的腳色
吵得是最兇.這也是為什麼Trevor Hoffman,國家聯盟最多救援點的投手,還沒進入名人堂
的原因,如果今年Hoffman被選入名人堂,他將會是2008年後繼Gosse Gossage第一個全職
的後援投手.

不管是不是專門的後援投手,沒有幾個投得比在2010初登板的Kimbrel還要好,也沒有幾個
在聯盟中主宰力跟他在2017的主宰力一樣好.Kimberl最終的命運,將會由投票者的共同理
念所決定,不過至少他17年傑出的表現,會讓他一躍成為話題人物


4.Yadier Molina, C, age 35
Career: .284/.336/.403, 126 homers, 35.4 bWAR, 8 Gold Glove Awards
2017: .273/.312/.439, 18 homers, 2 bWAR
Historical comp: Bill Freehan

Molina's case for Cooperstown will be based on his defense, and it will come
with its fair share of detractors. Molina's eight Gold Glove Awards are the
third most of any catcher (behind Ivan Rodriguez and Johnny Bench), but his
offensive numbers won't be enough to warrant consideration on their own.
Glove-first stars are rare, but not unheard of, in the Hall of Fame.

Which is why it stands to reason that any additional offense Molina produces
from here on would only boost his candidacy. On that front, 2017 offers a
conflicted outlook. On the one hand, Molina's batting average and on-base
percentage were lower than his career marks. On the other, he put up his
second-best single-season home run total and had a career-high 82 RBIs.




Molina的案例會以他的防守來作為基礎,這將會讓他的價值被貶低.Molina拿過八個金手套
是史上第三多的,僅次於Ivan Rodriguez 和 Johnny Bench.但是單就他的攻擊表現,
沒辦法保證他進入考慮名單裡.防守第一的明星很少,但也不是從來沒有進入名人堂過

而這也是為什麼,任何Molina在攻擊方面的產出將會使他成為更有競爭力的候選者.他
的2017年球季,打出了非常矛盾的前景,一方面Molina的打擊率以及上壘率都低於他的
生涯成績但是另一方面他擊出了他生涯單季第二多的全壘打數,還有生涯新高的82分打點




5.Buster Posey, C, age 30
Career: .308/.376/.474, 128 homers, 37.5 bWAR
2017: .320/.400/.462, 12 homers, 4 bWAR
Historical comp: Gabby Hartnett

The Giants were not very good in 2017, but their catcher, as usual, was.
Quietly, Posey enjoyed perhaps his best offensive season since his NL
MVP-capturing 2012 campaign. After nine seasons, Posey's 135 career OPS+
ranks second all-time among catchers, behind only Mike Piazza.

That alone says a lot about his Hall of Fame chances, though they might
ultimately hinge on how long Posey remains behind the dish full-time. Posey
made a quarter of his starts away from catcher last season, more than double
the year before. The more time he spends at first base, the more glaring
Posey's lack of power will look to voters.


巨人隊在2017表現得不怎麼樣,但是他們的捕手,一如往常,表現得很傑出.默默低,自從他
拿到2012年MVP,Posey在攻擊方面打出了可能是他最好的球季.生涯的九個球季,Posey打出
了生涯135OPS+的成績,在歷史上僅次於Mike Piazza

光這項就足以證明他進入名人堂的機會,雖然最終仍會取決於Posey在擔任全職捕手的職業
生涯有多長.這個球季Posey沒擔任先發捕手的場次是他先發場次的四分之一,比上個球季
多出兩倍多.當他花越多的時間在擔任一壘手,大家就會越注意到他打擊缺乏power


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*WAR分為fWAR & bWAR
fWAR是Fangraph所計算的,主要是建立在投手的技術上,屏除防守的考量
bWAR則是Baseball reference所計算的,除了會比較考慮到守備上外,還有會因為球場而做
調整



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