What Went Wang? - 棒球

王怎麼會演變到這個地步呢? (What Went Wang音似What Went Wrong)

可能的壞消息

By Steve Lombardi (waswatching.com)

今天，Peter Abraham的文章裡寫道:

王建民本季投出讓人害怕的結果。殘酷的、糟透了、令人厭惡的。讓人看到完全意料
不到的結果。

但是在他去年六月傷了腳前他投出了46勝15敗，自責失分率3.74的成績，且從來不曾
讓洋基隊惹上任何的麻煩。他上場總是善盡自己的任務，而且成了隊中模範的隊友。

＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊


他寫的全都對。而且，老實說，今天在這個部落格的某個地方的回應中。我也寫道
本季開始時我也沒有想到王會發生"這種狀況。

但是，再想想，過去的歷史裡，看過23歲的Steve Avery在1991和1992兩年的表現後，
1993年4月，會有人會想到這一年他的成績會"這樣"嗎?

而再說說最近的例子，30歲的Aaron Harang，看過他2005-2007三年優異的成績後，會
有人想到他去年的成績會"這樣"嗎?

27歲的Mark Buehrle，2001-2005年繳出穩定的成績後，2006年4月，會有人預料到這
一年他的成績會"這樣"嗎?

29歲的Ken Hill，看過他1992-1994年優異的表現後，1995年4月，會有人預料到這一
年他成績會"這樣"嗎?

29歲的Matt Morris，看過他2001-2003年的表現後，2004年4月，會有人想到這一年他
的成績會"這樣"嗎?

27歲的Danny Jackson，看過他1985-1988四年穩定的成績後，1989年四月會有人想到
他那年的成績會"這樣"嗎?

25歲的Joel Pineiro，看過他2001-2003年三年的表現後，2004年4月，會有人預料到
他那年的成績會"這樣"嗎?

26歲的Justin Thompson，看過他1997和1998年的表現後，1999年4月又會有人想到那
季的成績他會"這樣"嗎?

如果你夠誠實的話，上述這些問題的答案可能都是"沒有"。(而且，這些記錄，都只
是一些投手在那個時候似乎不可能會走下坡的例子。還可以舉出更多，更多的例子。)

現在，絕對不是說"殺蟲王"(註)2009年的成績就會很爛。即使他這一年成績很爛，這
也絕對不是暗示他的生涯就要結束了。

註: 殺蟲王是因滾地球很多，草中的蟲可能都死光，而被取的綽號。

但是，這只是表示，有時候，一個投手已經在大聯盟實實在在證明自己有不錯的身手
，卻會毫無理由的讓你看到他會有一個球季完全的走下坡 － 令人措手不及 － 任何年齡
都不是不可能發生。

為什麼? 喂，上述的例子證明，在過去的歷史裡是可能發生的，當然就有可能再發生
...在任何時候，任何人都有可能發生。


以下共有八個回應:

Raf 表示:

May 27th, 2009 at 10:49 pm

請問有沒有一些研究可以說明上述的例子?

謝謝!

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Steve Lombardi表示:

May 27th, 2009 at 10:59 pm

如果我沒記錯的話，Bill James就曾經對勝敗記錄作過一些研究。有一些投手在投出賽揚
身手的20勝成績後，下個球季卻拿到接近20敗，或是成績只有6勝10敗。

查詢過去的資料，我發現這些人的成績都有不只一年先發25次以上有很好的RSAA，但之後
會有一年都有很爛的RSAA。

RSAA: 指平均為球隊節省的分數。

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yagottagotomo1表示:

May 27th, 2009 at 11:03 pm

不錯的觀點。好多人一直提到，一個不只一年投出19勝的投手不可能突然忘了怎麼投球的
。但是我們看到的是因為一些傷勢或其他情況影響，是有可能發生的。


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sanair 表示:

May 27th, 2009 at 11:06 pm

假如這真的是無法回復的話，這真是個不好的消息。王似乎是個不會興風作浪沒有意見的
傢伙 (他不是生涯很後期才學會伸卡球嗎?) 我還比較希望像Andy (Pettitte)這種吃藥作
弊的人會在小王之前突然投得很糟生涯從此終止呢!

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Steve Lombardi表示:

May 27th, 2009 at 11:13 pm

"不會忘了怎麼投球"的話真的是挺有趣的。我可以認同這句話適用在去年Mussina身上。
但是，王呢? 他有真正成為一個"投手"嗎? 說得更清楚點，他不就是個一直猛丟伸卡球直
到你被解決為止的人嗎? 假如，這個形容是對的話，那說真的，他又是會了什麼東西，是
不可能忘記的?

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Evan3457表示:

May 27th, 2009 at 11:46 pm

小王的伸卡球今晚是更好了一點，雖然這是因為遇上了選球能力不好自由揮擊的游騎兵
隊也幫了不少忙。

至少這在往正確的方向走了。

哦...幾乎忘了...我們攻頂了。

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Raf表示:

May 28th, 2009 at 12:15 am

Bill James真的作過這研究嗎? 我想他知道得比較清楚。

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Jake1表示:

May 28th, 2009 at 8:37 am

或許小王若是真正學會了怎麼投球，而不是一直仰賴他94英哩的伸卡球，現在他就能夠
作調整，同時度過這個困境了。


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http://waswatching.com/category/possible-bad-news/

What Went Wang?

Possible Bad News

Steve Lombardi

Today, Peter Abraham wrote:

Chien-Ming Wang has pitched horrifically this season. Brutally, terribly,
awfully. Let’s get that right out of the way.

But he was 46-15 with a 3.74 ERA before he hurt his foot last June and has
never given the Yankees one ounce of trouble. He shows up, does his job and
has been a model teammate.

This is all true. And, to be candid, in a comment elsewhere on this blog
today, I shared that I never saw “this” coming for Wang this season.

But, then again, after his 1991 and 1992 seasons, in April of 1993, did
anyone see “it” coming for then 23-year old Steve Avery?

More recently, after his 2005, 2006, and 2007 seasons, in April of last year,
did anyone see “it” coming for then 30-year old Aaron Harang?

After his 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004 and 2005 seasons, in April of 2006, did
anyone see “it” coming for then 27-year old Mark Buehrle?

After his 1992, 1993 and 1994 seasons, in April of 1995, did anyone see “it”
coming for then 29-year old Ken Hill?

After his 2001, 2002 and 2003 seasons, in April of 2004, did anyone see “it”
coming for then 29-year old Matt Morris?

After his 1985, 1986, 1987 and 1988 seasons, in April of 1989, did anyone see
“it” coming for then 27-year old Danny Jackson?

After his 2001, 2002 and 2003 seasons, in April of 2004, did anyone see it
coming for then 25-year old Joel Pineiro?

After his 1997 and 1998 seasons, in April of 1999, did anyone see it coming
for then 26-year old Justin Thompson?

If you’re being honest, the answers to all these questions is probably “no.
” (And, for the record, these are just some recent cases where a pitcher has
hit the skids where it seemed like that could not happen to him, at that
point. There are many, many, more that can be cited.)

Now, this is NOT to say that Worm Killer Wang will have a terrible 2009. And,
even if he does, this is NOT to imply that his career is over.

But, this does suggest that, sometimes, for no reason that you could see
coming, a pitcher, who appears to be a solid and proven commodity at the big
league level, can have a season where it is ALL DOWNHILL for him - and out of
the blue - at an age where it doesn’t seem probable (to happen).

Why? Hey, as these cases prove, it’s happened in the past and it can happen
again…at any time, to anyone.


8 Responses to “What Went Wang?”

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Raf Says:

May 27th, 2009 at 10:49 pm

Are these some of the names featured in the “wipeout” study?

Thanks…

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Steve Lombardi Says:

May 27th, 2009 at 10:59 pm

Not that I recall. The James study focused more on wins and losses, IIRC.
Guys who went from 20-win and CYA type seasons to seasons the next year where
they lost close to 20, or went something like 6-10.

These are all guys that I found, using the CBE, who had more than one year -
and sometimes several - in a row with more than 25 GS and nice RSAA totals
who then had a year where they tanked, in terms of RSAA.

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yagottagotomo1 Says:

May 27th, 2009 at 11:03 pm

Good point. People keep saying that multiple 19 game winners dont just forget
how to pitch. We see that with the help of some injuries or other
circumstances, it could happen.

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sanair Says:

May 27th, 2009 at 11:06 pm

If this really is point of no return, it’s quite a sad story. Wang seemed
like a no-sense fella who didn’t make waves, and who worked hard at his
craft (didn’t he pick-up the sinker pretty late in his career?). I’d rather
see a roider/cheater like Andy have a career come to an abrupt and awful end
before Wang.

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Steve Lombardi Says:

May 27th, 2009 at 11:13 pm

The “don’t forget how to pitch” notion is an interesting one. I could see
how that might apply to someone like Mussina, last year. But, Wang? Was he
ever “a pitcher”? Or, more so, someone who just poured sinkers with gas
down your throat until you were a beaten batter? And, if the latter is true,
then, did he know anything, really, that cannot be forgotten?

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Evan3457 Says:

May 27th, 2009 at 11:46 pm

Wang’s sinker looked much better tonight, though the Rangers’ free swinger
may have helped some.

It’s a step in the right direction, at least.

Oh…almost forgot…1st place!!!

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Raf Says:

May 28th, 2009 at 12:15 am

Steve Lombardi wrote:

The James study focused more on wins and losses, IIRC.

Really? I would’ve thought he knew better

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Raf Says:

May 28th, 2009 at 12:19 am

Last year, or the year before? Moose’s FIP was reasonable @ 4.01 in 2007
when he posted a 5.15 ERA.

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Jake1 Says:

May 28th, 2009 at 8:37 am

maybe if Wang ever learned how to actually pitch instead of relying on a
94mph sinker he would be able to make adjustments and get thru this.



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