Team Health Report - 美國職棒

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=4818

BP的Team Health Report
by Thomas Gorman and Will Carroll

(Yellow) C Kenji Johjima: We don't know Johjima's history very well, so we
don't have much to go on here. He was relatively healthy in Japan, despite
being used heavily. He broke his tibia late last season on a foul tip, though
that shouldn't be an issue anymore.

(Green) 1B Richie Sexson: Sexson's 156 games played in 2005 (with a .276 ISO)
suggests that his shoulder subluxation has fully healed.

(Green) 2B Jose Lopez

(Green) 3B Adrian Beltre: This is a bad, bad contract ($47,000,000 remaining
over the next four years, plus whatever is deferred on the $7,000,000 signing
bonus), but it's not bad for health reasons. Beltre's little hamstring
problem last year isn't going to trigger a THR warning light.

(Yellow) SS Yuniesky Betancourt: Young shortstops have a tendency to get small
injuries and wear down. It's a taxing position for anyone, but especially for
someone new to the Majors.

(Green) LF Raul Ibanez

(Green) CF Jeremy Reed

(Green) RF Ichiro Suzuki

(Yellow) DH Carl Everett: This yellow is for Everett the outfielder, not
Everett the DH. Not having to play the field should lower his risk profile
significantly.

(Green) SUB Matt Lawton: We hate playing the innuendo game but we'd be
negligent if we didn't point out that he tested positive for steroids last
year. Lawton admitted to taking the veterinary steroid boldenone in an effort
to help recover from a nagging leg problem. We don't see a DL risk here.

(Red) SP Felix Hernandez We certainly hope that Felix Hernandez is the next
great pitcher, whether that's Mark Fidrych, Dwight Gooden, or someone with less
in the way of supernova stylings, but Hernandez remains (like all young
pitchers) as likely to end up injured as he is to end up on an All-Star team.

It doesn't help that he's been babied or that he had his slider taken away (a
move that only makes sense if that pitch was seen to be worse than the
others, something not seen in either gold standard studies or in the films of
Hernandez). His mechanics remain both violent and off-balance: his head
whiplashes forward and his hat is projected forward as fast as the ball on
occasions.

The problem with a pitcher this good and this flawed is that by reducing a
flaw, we don't know if we decrease injury risk significantly, but we know
that we often reduce effectiveness. The pitching coach's job is to balance
the two, adjusting here and there to reduce injury risk and increase
effectiveness. We have no good measures of that, so we'll sit back and watch
and hope and pray that Hernandez is more the next Carlos Zambrano than the
next Ryan Anderson.

(Yellow) SP Jamie Moyer Pitchers this age are either special, about to fall
apart, or they're knuckleballers. With his fastball you might say that Moyer
is actually more "knuckler" than "special."

(Red) SP Jarrod Washburn: In our database we have two players who have broken
their scapula (the big plate-shaped bone in your upper back). One, Kurt
Ainsworth, looked awful in 2004, missed all of 2005, and got a charity invite
to Dodgers camp this year. This from a guy who was once one of the top
prospects in baseball.

Washburn wasn't quite that badly messed up by his fracture, but it's clear
that the stud pitcher from 2001 and 2002 is gone. His 3.20 ERA from last year
is misleading (based on his peripherals, his ERA should have been 4.61).

(Red) SP Joel Pineiro: He had an ulnar collateral ligament problem in 2004, but
the shoulder issues from 2005 are cause for more concern. His velocity was
off, his control was horrible, and his numbers were the worst of his career.
He still has two years left on his 3-year, $14,500,000 deal and we're betting
that they don't go well.

(Red) SP Gil Meche: Years of shoulder problems will get you a red light every
time.

(Yellow) CL Eddie Guardado: If Guardado's knee is finally healthy, then it
should help him speed up his delivery and take stress off the shoulder.

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Good God, there is a lot of red in that rotation. This is the third AL West
team we've covered, and while Texas and Los Angeles aren't exactly sitting
pretty with their starting pitching, Seattle's rotation is looking ugly. In
fact, depending on how you feel about the Yankees' rotation woes, this might
be the ugliest rotation we've looked at with respect to injury risk.

I wish we could offer some balancing optimism here, but we can't, for a
number of reasons. First, if any team shouldn't be trusted with pitcher
injuries, it's the Mariners. The numbers may not be statistically
significant, but they still don't look good, as Seattle has a well-known
reputation for destroying pitching prospects. We don't mean to indict the
whole organization for what may just wind up being horrifically bad luck, but
until this team shows that they can keep their pitchers healthy we're going
to look at their hurlers with concern and pessimism.

Second, there isn't any quality depth in this system to compensate for the
injury risks. Who is going to take starts if Moyer finally breaks down? Who
will step up during Pineiro or Meche's annual DL stint? Travis Blackley?
Bobby Livingston? The situation could certainly be worse, but it's hard to be
optimistic about the Mariners' chances when they're probably going to need at
least 15 starts from those two. For what it's worth, Blackley himself has
shoulder problems, and missed all of 2005 with a labrum tear.

Their depth problem is somewhat related to their injury problems. If even a
handful of their prospects hadn't gone down with injuries, the Mariners could
be a little more flexible with pitching.

Third, except for King Felix, there isn't really any upside here. With Moyer
and Meche you're crossing your fingers for 25 starts of league average
pitching (in a pitcher's paradise). With Washburn and Pineiro you could hope
for a little more, but there's not much optimism there. At least with the
Yankees you can see some light at the end of the tunnel. With the Mariners'
pitching risk, you're praying for league averageness and as few replacement
level starts as possible. That's not fun.

This team needs a lot to go right for them to compete in this difficult
division but, with all those red lights on the pitching staff, it almost
looks impossible.


野手部分是很漂亮一片綠
可是投手是全紅orz
兩個沒拿到紅的是最老的兩個(Moyer,Guardado)
還有，Pineiro的合約應該是今年到期吧
Gorman和Carroll說他還有兩年約？

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