RANKING THE 20-WIN CANDIDATES - 美國職棒

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Even with our best efforts to devalue the pitcher win over the past decade,
there's still something special about the number 20.

雖然近年來勝投數的重要性日漸減少 但20勝還是個重要的指標

I think that's fair, even in an increasingly analytics-based world. At this
point, we know enough to understand that there are always a bevy of mitigating
factors when looking at individual pitcher wins. (You need a good lineup, you
need a good bullpen, you need a good manager and you need a fair amount of
luck.)

要拿到20勝 背後的隊友很重要 幫你守成的隊友很重要 還有敵人在不在休息室
當然還有運氣

But the fact remains that while individual wins should be looked at with
skepticism, winning 20 games is a very noteworthy achievement. First of all:
You aren't going to win 20 games if you aren't very good. Secondly, 20 wins
usually correlates to team success, and if we aren't going to celebrate players
for contributing to their team's success, then why do we even bother watching?

I'm not going to make a case for the pitcher win in this space -- or probably
ever. But I will argue wholeheartedly that winning 20 games still means
something, especially with pitchers throwing fewer and fewer innings per start.

Last season, three pitchers reached the 20-win threshold: Clayton Kershaw,
Johnny Cueto and Adam Wainwright. This season there are a number of usual
suspects among the contenders, as well as a few darkhorse candidates. Let's
take a look.

去年有三個人拿到20勝 書僮 規頭 Wainy

The Favorites
希望濃厚組

Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers. Kershaw has it all going for him. At this point, he's
unquestionably the best pitcher in the game, and he's got the offense to back
him up. Remember, Kershaw won 21 games in 2011 when the Dodgers finished third,
and he won 21 games last season, despite missing the first month. The biggest
hurdle in Kershaw's campaign for 20 wins this year will probably be the
Dodgers' bullpen. Closer Kenley Jansen will likely be out until May after foot
surgery, and there are question marks behind him. Kershaw will also be dealing
with a vastly improved division, but he hasn't had much trouble with his
primary competition before. He's 14-5 with a 1.43 ERA lifetime against the
Giants, and he's 12-6 with a 2.25 ERA against the Padres. There's no sure thing
when it comes to projecting 20-game winners, but Kershaw is the safest bet
there is.

書僮無庸置疑的是當今最強(例行賽)投手 隊友火力支援足夠
2011年道奇國西第三 他拿到21勝 去年晚起步一個月拿到21勝
今年能夠阻止書僮拿下20勝的 大概只有那殘破的牛棚....
屋漏偏逢連夜雨 唯一穩定的牛 終結者Jansen確定休息到五月
而且國西今年不再是歡樂區 但生涯對戰紀錄十分出色(只怕墊底蛇)
但要猜20勝投手 書僮應該是最保險的一張牌了

Felix Hernandez, Mariners. In 10 seasons in the big leagues, Hernandez has
never reached the 20-win plateau, though there are certainly a couple seasons
where he probably would have, if given the offense. This year, the Mariners'
offense isn't great, but it's much improved with the additions of Nelson Cruz
and Seth Smith to go along with the steady development of Kyle Seager. Plus,
Hernandez has the luxury of one of the best bullpens in baseball. When King
Felix won 19 games in 2009, his bullpen cost him an additional four victories.

國王已經邁入第11個球季 從沒有拿過20勝... (09年19勝)
他有好幾個球季應該可以拿到的 (如果有火力支援的話)
今年水兵火力還是普普 雖然已經加入了Cruz 跟Smith 還有穩定成長的Seager
另外下場後有豪華牛棚守成 (09年被敗掉4場) 今年真的有機會

Max Scherzer, Nationals. Scherzer probably isn't on the level of Kershaw and
Hernandez in terms of raw stuff, but he makes the top tier simply because of
where he'll be playing. By virtually every projection, the Nationals should
run away with the NL East, and Scherzer will get the benefits of a very
productive offense and a very weak-hitting division. The knock on Scherzer is
that he doesn't work deep enough into ballgames. (He has just one complete game
in seven seasons.) But Scherzer also typically doesn't get lit up early either.
He worked at least six innings in all but four of his 33 starts last year.
Scherzer has won at least 15 games in each of the past four seasons, and given
his situation, he should be well on his way to a fifth.

Scherzer可能沒有書僮跟King的Stuff 但他找對隊伍了
國民沒有意外會讓國東其他隊伍看不到車尾燈 但是續航力是主要問題(七年一場完投而已)
但他還是可以穩定的吃局數(去年只有4場沒有投到6局)
最近四季都至少15勝 今年應該也沒有問題

Johnny Cueto, Reds. Theoretically, the Reds probably won't be very good this
year, and therefore Cueto should struggle to hit the 20-win mark again. But
even if the Reds got worse by trading away half of their pitching staff,
Cueto's numbers won't be affected by that at all. The formula every fifth day
in Cincinnati is simple: eight innings from Cueto, one inning from Chapman, and
you're going to win a lot of games. In 2014, Cueto was in contention for the
title of best hurler on the planet not named Kershaw. The Reds may very well
finish below .500, but their offense is solid enough to support Cueto and put
him near the magic No. 20 once again.

天才小釣手Cueto 今年要拿到20勝可能有點辛苦 因為紅人今年應該不怎樣
紅人把投手陣容拆光光 但這不會影響到他 每五天還是能穩定吃下8局 剩下一局給火球男
去年CYA輸給地表最強投手書僮
今年紅人勝率應該會低於五成 但是火力應該可以支援Cueto再次拿下20勝

In Contention
有機會組

Adam Wainwright, Cardinals. Wainwright has won 20 games in his career twice,
and he's won 19 another two times. Like Kershaw, he's got a nice balance of
raw talent and the team to back him up. Last season, Wainwright's numbers got
noticeably worse when catcher Yadier Molina went down with an injury (1.78 ERA,
3.88 without him). Molina is clearly a big part of Wainwright's success, and he
should be fully healthy again. The NL Central is undoubtedly tougher than it
once was. But the Cardinals are still the favorites, and Wainwright is still
their ace.

Waino生涯兩度20勝 兩次19勝 跟書僮一樣 隊友很挺他
上一季Waino在沒有摸小弟的情況下 荒腔走板 但這季應該完全復原了
國中今年不好混 但紅雀應該還是龍頭 Waino也會是他們的Ace

David Price, Tigers. Like Wainwright, Price will have to contend with a vastly
improved division. And if Price is going to get to 20 wins, he's going to have
to do so without much bullpen help. But the Detroit offense has a knack for
carrying pitchers to victories. In the past six seasons, Tigers pitchers have
won at least 16 games seven times, and four of them led the AL.

Price跟Waino一樣 分區變強了 而且老虎牛棚...一樣殘破 要拿20勝得自己來
但是老虎的火力能夠Carry他 過去六季 老虎的投手拿下16勝7次 其中4次是美聯第一

Chris Sale, White Sox. Sale probably has the best stuff of any pitcher within
this tier, and he'll get his best chance yet to win 20 games in 2015. In five
years in the big leagues, Sale has yet to make more than 30 starts in a season
-- both because of injuries and because of the club being extra cautious with
its young ace. Although the 25-year-old Sale will miss at least one start after
fracturing his right foot on Feb. 27, the White Sox offense figures to be
improved with the additions of Melky Cabrera and Adam LaRoche. Plus, David
Robertson and Zach Duke join a bullpen that has been brutal on sale in the
past three seasons.

Sale應該是在"有機會組"中Stuff最好的一個 過去五年 他從來沒有一季超過30次先發
(因為受傷+球團保護) 雖然Sale開季應該會Miss掉一次先發(因為腳骨折...)
白襪今年打線增加了牛奶弟跟臘肉哥 牛棚多了蘿蔔跟Duke
Sale可以不用擔心勝投跟前三季一樣被牛棚敗掉

Corey Kluber, Indians. Kluber's been great for only one season, and sometimes
that kind of immediate success later in a player's career can be tough to
maintain. Still, Kluber was all sorts of brilliant last year, especially during
the second half. He won 11 games in the season's final three months, when the
Indians started making a push for the playoffs. Expect Cleveland to contend
this season, and if so, Kluber will be among the leading candidates for 20
wins.

Kluber去年爆發 雖然很多投手曾經曇花一現 但如果印地安人仍跟去年一樣為季後賽奮鬥
Kluber有機會衝擊20勝

On The Right Team For It
隊友挑對了組

Zack Greinke, Dodgers. It's probably not fair that Greinke hasn't won 20 games
yet. He played for some bad Royals teams and put up double-digit victories
three times, including 16 during his Cy Young Award-winning 2009 campaign.
Since leaving the Royals, Greinke has won at least 15 games every season, but
he hasn't yet cracked the 20-win barrier. He's pitching in a contract year
(sort of ... he can choose opt out of the remaining $71 million on his deal),
and 20 wins would be a nice way to hit the free-agent market.

Z魔神還沒有拿到20勝 有點不公平 他在之前的萬年弱隊皇家拿到三次雙位數勝投
爆發的09年 也只拿到16勝 離開皇家後 年年15勝起跳 但就是沒有20勝過
今年是合約年(應該會跳脫啦) 20勝應該是他會想要挑戰的目標

Jered Weaver, Angels. There's really no one steadier than Weaver. Halfway
through the decade, Weaver ranks sixth among all pitchers in WAR, and he's
fourth in wins. Averaging 16 wins a season since 2009, Weaver will be pitching
for a team that won a Major League-best 98 games last season. He may not be
the dominant ace he once was, but he's still crafty as ever, and with a great
offense and a very good bullpen behind him, he should win a lot of games.

小Weaver仍然穩定 這十年來 小Weaver WAR在投手中排第六名 勝投第四名
09年後 平均16勝 去年天使98勝 強大火力加上堅強牛棚 有機會衝擊20勝

Jordan Zimmermann, Nationals. Like Greinke, Zimmermann is entering a contract
year, and his 2015 performance will go a long way toward determining his value
on the free-agent market. If he can continue his success from the second half
of last season, Zimmermann could be headed for a payday. He went 8-0 in the
second half, and he punctuated it with a no-hitter against the Marlins on the
final day of the season. On the surface, he doesn't seem like the workhorse
type capable of winning 20. (He's never thrown more than 214 innings, and he's
surpassed 200 only once.) But he's playing on the right team in the right
division to have a chance.

Zimmermann跟Z魔神一樣今年合約年 如果他能夠複製去年下半季的表現(8-0)
在球季最後一天對馬林魚更是投出無安打
但是他實在不是好工作馬 從沒有投超過214局 只超過200局一次
但他待在對的隊伍 對的分區 有機會拿下20勝跟大合約

On The Wrong Team For It
__一般的隊友

Matt Harvey, Mets. We all know how dominant Harvey's stuff is. But to expect
20 victories from him in what would be his first full season in the Majors is
probably a bit of a stretch. For one, don't be surprised if the Mets keep a
watchful eye on him early in the season -- and again later on, if they aren't
in contention. Also, the New York offense finished 22nd in the Majors last
season, and pitching in a spacious ballpark like Citi Field will make for
plenty of low-scoring ballgames. That means plenty of no-decisions for Harvey.

沒人會懷疑Harvey的Stuff 但要求他在第一個完整球季就拿下20勝有點強人所難
梅子應該會更保護他 球季後半段如果沒有季後賽希望 可能也會有所保留
而且梅子進攻全聯盟倒數的 所以20勝有點困難

Cole Hamels, Phillies. Hamels might be the most interesting candidate on this
list. He probably won't spend a full season in Philadelphia. But all signs
point to Hamels being a part of the Opening Day roster. Even if he is traded
at the Deadline, he'll have to put up some absurd numbers in Philly to have a
shot at 20 wins. No team in the Majors has a harder time rewarding its pitchers
for their efforts, and Hamels has taken the brunt of that (along with Cliff
Lee). Over the past two seasons, Hamels has an ERA slightly above 3.00 -- yet
he's just 17-23 in that time.

黑魔使可能不會在費城人待滿整季 但應該會在開季名單 所以應該不會拿下20勝
大聯盟應該沒有人比黑魔使更悲情了(小李飛刀:) 過去兩年ERA只超過3一點點
但...17勝23敗

Outside Chance
可能有機會

Masahiro Tanaka, Yankees. Tanaka appeared to be ticketed for 20 wins last
season before he was set back by elbow trouble. If he can return to his old
form, there's no reason to think he won't pile up the victories. He won his
first six decisions last year and 11 of his first 12. Right now, the Yankees
are an enigma, and it's worth wondering how their bullpen will fare without
David Robertson. But when he was healthy, Tanaka had a knack for taking the
burden off the 'pen, working at least six innings in all 18 of his starts --
with three complete games.

田中將大 去年在受傷前 看起來很有機會20勝 今年如果能夠恢復去年水準 勝投會滾滾來
他去年前6場全贏 前12場贏了11場 但洋基還待觀察 牛棚少了蘿蔔後的表現
如果田中健康 他可以減輕牛棚負擔 去年18次先發都投滿6局 3次完投

Stephen Strasburg, Nationals. Since his arrival in 2010, Strasburg has been
very good. But we weren't expecting very good from the former No. 1 pick. We
were told to expect great. If this is indeed the year Strasburg takes that
next step, he has the offense behind him to threaten the 20-win mark. But he'll
need to find a way to keep his pitch count down. In 34 starts last season,
Strasburg worked into the seventh inning only 18 times. Leaving a third of the
game in the hands of the 'pen usually isn't a sound strategy for picking up
wins.

天才小史自從2010進入大聯盟一直都表現很好 但是他是小史"很好"是不夠的
今年國民能給他強大火力支援 就看他能不能更進一步
但是他去年投球數一直過高 34次先發只有18次投到第7局

Hisashi Iwakuma, Mariners. Iwakuma missed the first month of the season last
year due to injury, but the veteran right-hander still found a way to win 15
games. Perhaps no pitcher in the Majors has been more underrated in the past
two seasons than Iwakuma, who had a very real case for the AL Cy Young Award
in 2013. Still, he'll turn 34 a week after Opening Day, and a 7-5 mark with a
4.15 ERA in the second half last season, doesn't bode well heading into '15.

岩熊去年錯過了第一個月 但還是拿下了15勝
過去兩年 岩熊大概是最被低估的CYA競爭者
但是開季就要34歲了 去年下半季表現也不好 所以15年可能不會太好

Jon Lester, Cubs. Lester has won at least 10 games in six of the past seven
seasons, but he's really only come close to 20 once -- when he won 19 during
the 2010 season. The change of scenery to the National League should lower
Lester's ERA, but it's hard to say whether it will help his win total. Neither
the Cubs nor the Red Sox -- his two primary suitors in free agency -- were very
good last year, but both got markedly better in the offseason. Whatever you
think of his massive contract, Lester is probably going to perform up to
standard in year one of the deal. The only question with regard to 20 wins is
whether the offense and bullpen are there to support him. The answer: probably
not.

抗癌過去7季有6季拿下至少10勝 但只有一次接近過20勝
但了國聯 ERA應該會下降(國聯比較__) 但不代表可以讓他勝場數增加
抗癌能不能拿下20勝 就看進攻跟牛棚了

Madison Bumgarner, Giants. Pitching isn't easy on the arm, and Bumgarner did a
lot of it last season. The Giants left-hander threw 4,074 pitches -- according
to Fangraphs, the second most in baseball and just six fewer than James
Shields. No question, Bumgarner was brilliant. He elevated himself into the
best-pitcher-in-baseball debate, even if the regular-season numbers aren't
there. This year, he'll have a good offense, a good bullpen and a manager in
Bruce Bochy who probably won't cost him any wins late. But what kind of toll
did Bumgarner's workload take last season? Probably enough to the point where
20 wins might be asking a bit too much of him.

季後賽之神MadBum 去年投了4074球 只比神盾少了6球
MadBum用季後賽成績把自己
提升到最強投手的層級 但例行賽成績實在不怎樣
巨人有好的進攻 好的牛棚 好的教練 但去年的Overload應該多少有影響
20勝對MadBum 有點太嚴苛了

Longshots: Hyun-Jin Ryu, Dodgers; Justin Verlander, Tigers; Gerrit Cole,
Pirates; Chris Archer, Rays; Andrew Cashner, Padres; James Shields, Padres;
Sonny Gray, A's; Henderson Alvarez, Marlins

http://ppt.cc/ledz


--
blacklittle 2B 3B
這傢伙
在他的生涯中 有機會成為不錯的邊角內野手
但須克服脆弱的身體 避免成為DL常客
他仍有空間提升他平庸的打擊爆發力
但仍舊無法造成全壘打威脅

--