Prospects Chat - Alex Speier - 美國職棒

J.Feliz Luzón (Anderson Espinoza. Agent): More than a question is a comment
regarding Anderson! He is a warrior and harder worker with only 17 y old! He
is figthing everyday to reach his goals and make a 25MR ASAP! He is now
training in Fort Myers

J.Feliz Luzón (Anderson Espinoza的經紀人)： Espinosa是一位勇士，17歲就這麼
努力！他每天朝目標奮鬥，往25人名單邁進！他現在在Fort Myers接受訓練。

Alex Speier: A testimonial from Espinoza’s agent… Espinoza told me that his
goal is to reach the big leagues at age 19, like his idol, King Felix.

Alex Speier: Espinosa告訴我他的目標是在19歲就站上大聯盟─跟他的偶像King Felix
一樣。

--

Billy Collins (Hanson): What do you see the Sox doing with Moncada and
Devers? Bogaerts is entrenched at short and Pedroia is signed through 2021.
Sandoval could move to 1B but it seems like there's only one long term spot
for two guys, especially with the youth in the outfield it would seem less
likely one would be converted to an outfielder.

Billy Collins (Hanson): 你覺得紅襪會怎麼處理Moncada和Devers？ Bogaerts穩住游擊
、小派簽到2021年、Sandoval可以移到一壘但是感覺兩人之中只能有一人拿到長期工作─
而且外野也已經有年輕人了，轉往外野的機會也變低了。

Alex Speier: These sorts of questions require a lot of assumptions about time
scales and aging, and I’m a terrible forecaster of the future! That said,
Moncada has the ability to play virtually anywhere on the field except for
shortstop, which means that issues of potential redundancy are highly
avoidable with him, just as they were when there was consternation about
Pedroia blocking Betts. Devers is years away, so if he’s still at 3B by the
time he gets to the big leagues, chances are, Sandoval wouldn’t be too great
an impediment. Put another way: It’s unlikely that either of these guys will
be blocked through 2018.

Alex Speier: 這類問題需要太多需要時間因素的假設，而我是一個很糟的預測家。

Moncada除了游擊之外基本都能站，所以比較不容易被擋到─就像是當年大家在擔心Betts
被Pedroia擋住。Devers還需要好幾年，所以如果他成功穩住三壘位置並衝上大聯盟，
Sandoval大概也沒辦法強到擋住Devers。另外這兩個在2018年之前都不會被擋到。

--

Storm (San Jose): Hi Alex! Can Benintendi be a 20/20 guy? What do you think
is his ceiling and ETA?

Storm (San Jose): Benintendi有成為20-20俱樂部成員的潛力嗎？他的天花板和ETA？

Alex Speier: I think I mentioned his ceiling — he certainly has 20/20
potential, a player somewhat similar to what Betts showed last year, perhaps.
He has a chance to fly through the minors based on an incredibly advanced
approach. It’s not absurd to guess he’s in the majors by some point in 2017.

Alex Speier: 前面提過他的天花板─當然有20-20潛力，他上季有點類似Mookie Betts。
他的打擊策略能讓他在小聯盟快速通關，所以猜測他2017年上來大聯盟並不荒謬。

--

Billy Collins (Hanson): With the top 10 being loaded with positional players
and Dombrowski sounding like he would like to develop pitching, should all
expectations be that the Sox look for a pitcher with their top pick next
year? Any suggestions on players to watch this spring that could go in the
top half of the draft?

Billy Collins (Hanson): 紅襪的Top 10大多是野手，而Dombrowski似乎偏好補強投手，
所以是否能預期紅襪會用最高順位籤選投手？

Alex Speier: Dombrowski did tend to take pitchers with his top picks in
Detroit, but that wasn’t ironclad. My guess is that he’ll offer input but
give Mike Rikard plenty of room to make his own call; Benintendi obviously
looks like an excellent first pick by Rikard in his first year as amateur
scouting director. The Sox’ philosophy has always been best player available
instead of a position-based preference.

Alex Speier Dombrowski在老虎時期確實偏向在最高順位選投手，不過這並不是鐵則。我
猜他會給Mike Rikard(去年第一年選進Benintendi的scouting director)發揮空間做決定
。紅襪的近幾年的選秀哲學是選擇池子裡最好的球員，而非選擇特定位置。

--

Norm Chouinard (Connecticut): If he were eligible, where would Travis Shaw
slot in the top 30?

Norm Chouinard (Connecticut): 如果Travis Shaw具新秀資格，他會排在哪？

Alex Speier: Probably ahead of Travis given what Shaw showed in the big
leagues … However, can’t give a number, since once you sweep Shaw into the
top 10, we’d have to redefine the group with the likes of Swihart, Castillo,
Rodriguez, Owens, Barnes, etc.

Alex Speier: 或許會排在Travis前面，原因是Shaw在大聯盟拿出了表現。不過我沒辦法
給你數字─如果你把Shaw擺進Top 10，我們必須重新定義Swihart, Castillo,
Rodriguez, Owens, Barnes等人的排名。

--

Michael Stern (Rochester NY): Love Travis hit tool. Big question is do you
see him developing enough power to warrant being a legit everyday iB ? Thanks
for the chat !

Michael Stern (Rochester NY): 喜歡Travis的hit tool。你認為他能發展出足夠的
power而拿下先發一壘手的工作嗎？

Alex Speier: No one knows. He has raw power — some scouts who saw him at
Indiana said that he proved capable of going toe-to-toe with Schwarber in BP.
There are some who believe he develops pull power to get up to, say, 15-20
HRs. But what makes him good right now (a willingness to let the ball travel
and stay in the middle of the field) is also what limits his power.

Alex Speier: 沒有人知道。Travis有raw power─有球探在Indiana看過他，說他能在打
擊練習中與Schwarber並駕齊驅。有些球探認為他能長出pull power(大約是15-20 HR)，
不過他現在的優點(讓球往中線去)限制住他的power。

--

Michael Stern (Rochester NY): Very surprised to see Devers ahead of
Benintendi. What was the reasoning? I'm sure the decision was very close
anyway. Thanks for the chat!

Michael Stern (Rochester NY): 很驚訝Devers比Benintendi前面，原因是甚麼？

Alex Speier: Close to a coinflip. Honestly, I could’ve had any of
Moncada/Devers/Benintendi in any order and felt comfortable with it. Devers,
at 18, already has a more established track record that screams high
likelihood for a future middle-of-the-order player. He and Benintendi
finished the year at the same level. Given the age gap, that’s amazing. I
also tend to be a bit cautious about small-sample dominance (perhaps too
cautious: I should’ve been more bullish on #featsofmookie after 2013, and
ditto Rodriguez after 2014). I explained my thinking on the specific rankings
a bit more here: http://bit.ly/1mBQliM


Alex Speier: 五五波。說真的我覺得Moncada/Devers/Benintendi怎麼排都可以啦。
Devers在18歲的年紀就打出成績，很有機會成為未來的中心打線，而他跟Benintendi都在
同一層級結束球季。考量到年齡差距，真的很令人驚訝。

--

Tyler (North Carolina): When is the earliest you can see Moncada and
Benintendi, both of whom look to be on the fast-track to the majors,
especially Benintendi? Could both be on the 2017 roster?

Tyler (North Carolina): 最快何時可以看到Moncada和Benintendi？感覺兩人很快都能
站上大聯盟，特別是Benintendi？或許2017年？

Alex Speier: Some evaluators think there’s a chance that either of them
could blow up in 2016 in a way that could have them flying to the big
leagues. I think 2017 is more realistic, especially for Moncada.

Alex Speier: 有些球探說兩人有機會在2016年就踏上大聯盟，不過我認為2017年比較
實際一些，特別是Moncada。

--

Tyler (North Carolina): Yoan Moncada had a ton of errors (35 if I remember
correctly) at 2B in Greenville. Could he move elsewhere in the near future or
is 2B going to be his primary position for years to come?

Tyler (North Carolina): Yoan Moncada本季在Greenville守二壘有誇張的失誤次數
，他會在不久將來被移往其他位置嗎？還是會繼續留守2B？

Alex Speier: 23 errors, and most of them came in the first half. He cleaned
up his fundamentals a ton in the second half and reduced the errors
significantly. The Sox don’t plan to move him off 2B entering 2016.
Long-term? That’s another matter. But I think he has the tools to stick at
2B — he can make explosive, dynamic plays there.

Alex Speier: 23次，其中大多發生在上半季。他在下半季打好基礎，大幅降低失誤頻率
。紅襪並沒有打算在2016年開季改變他的位置，長期計劃就不得而知了。不過我認為他有
留在二壘的tool，他能在二壘完成高爆發性的play。

--
＊Athletic frame.
＊High baseball IQ. Xander
＊Smooth, fluid swing. Bogaerts
＊Elite batspeed. #01
＊Strong and explosive hands.
＊Above-average-to-better power ceiling, potential 30 home run bat.

--