Prospects Chat - Alex Speier - 美國職棒

Boston Red Sox Top 10 Prospects Chat

https://t.co/VJ6fTjqngr

文長，會分成好幾篇刊出~

@Jaypers413 (IL): About how far away from the bigs is Sam Travis, and is he
likely to eventually become Papi's successor at DH?

@Jaypers413 (IL): Sam Travis距離大聯盟還有多遠？他最終有可能繼承老爹的DH位置
嗎？

Alex Speier: There’s a sense that Travis could be big league-ready by the
end of this year, given his college pedigree and the impressive hit tool he
showed at two levels in 2015. Not sure he’s Ortiz’s successor given that
Hanley Ramirez might be better suited to DH, but certainly, Travis (along
with Travis Shaw, whose nomenclaturial proximity will prove very confusing in
coming years) has asserted himself as an important consideration for
late-2016 and into 2017.

Alex Speier: 因為他是大學出身、加上這今年在兩個層級展現出的hit tool，Travis有
機會在年底成為MLB-ready。

不確定他能否成為老爹的繼任者，因為Hanley Ramirez或許比較適合這個位置─但可以
確定的是，他的表現已經讓他成為2016季末與2017年的重要人物。

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Grant (NYC): What is the consensus opinion of Trey Ball at this point? Is he
still in your top 30?

Grant (NYC): 現在外界對Trey Ball的評價如何？他還在你的Top 30嗎？

Alex Speier: Yes, he’s in the top 30, and thanks to the Padres trade that
knocked out three of the top 12 prospects in the system, he ended up higher
than I expected (top-20). Consensus is that his athleticism and easy arm
action still offer potentially tantalizing projection, but he’s arrived at
the show-don’t-tell stage of his career where his prospect status will be
capped until he starts showing the ability to handle opposing hitters more
consistently.

Alex Speier: 是的。因為Kimbrel交易少掉三位Top 12，他甚至打進令我驚訝的Top 20。
共識是他的運動能力以及輕鬆的揮臂動作依然展現出誘人的潛力，但是在他拿出宰制打者
的能力之前，評價都會落在一定水準之下。

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Frank (Chicago, IL): How high are you on Luis Alexander Basabe? About how
many years away is he?

Frank (Chicago, IL): 對Luis Alexander Basabe有多高？他距離大聯盟還多久？

Alex Speier: He’s been a fascinating guy from the time he debuted in the DSL
as a 16-year-old. His power/speed combo stands out — particularly given that
he’s actually *shown* power as an 18-year-old. His ceiling would put him up
there with the top five guys in the Sox’ system, but his floor is
ill-defined, and there are likely to be bumps along the way as he refines his
approach, so … far away.

Alex Speier: 從16歲在DSL亮相開始就拿出令人讚賞的表現。炮瓦/速度的組合相當突出
─特別是才18歲的年紀就已經拿出炮瓦了。

他的天花板可以排上紅襪前五，不過地板難以預測，而且他的打擊策略還需要修正，一路
上會跌跌撞撞─他還需要很多時間養成。

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PR (NY): Why does Betts go in RF when Castillo has a stronger arm and also
has speed?

PR (NY): Castillo有更強的傳球臂力和速度，為何還讓Mookie Betts守RF？

Alex Speier: Betts’ arm strength improved as he developed his throwing
mechanics as an outfielder (remember: He’s only been playing OF since May
2014), and his routes and speed appear to permit more ground coverage.

Alex Speier: Betts在轉守外野後傳球力道提升，姿勢也修正過了(別忘記他在2014年才
轉外野)，還有他的守備路徑和速度讓他有更好的守備範圍。

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Francisco (Atlanta, GA): what's Josh Ockimey ceiling ?

Francisco (Atlanta, GA): Josh Ockimey的天花板在哪？

Alex Speier: Power-hitting everyday first baseman, probably with a goodly
number of strikeouts in the mix. He put on an impressive show in
instructional league, driving balls out into the bullpen in right-center at
JetBlue. Not many teenagers do that.

Alex Speier: 先發等級的一壘炮手，或許會有不少三振。他在指導聯盟拿出好表現，時
常把球送進JetBlue的右外野牛棚─鮮少有少年能做到。

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Mark (Fargo, ND): Which Red Sox prospect has the best chance of being a MLB
closer someday?

Mark (Fargo, ND): 哪位新秀最有機會在未來成為大聯盟終結者？

Alex Speier: Hmmmm… That might depend on whether Kopech’s changeup develops
to the point of keeping him in the rotation. If he’s more of a two-pitch
guy, then he’d look an awful lot like a potential closer.

Alex Speier: 嗯...大概要取決於Kopech的changeup養成狀況，看他能不能擔任先發投
手。如果他最終偏向兩種球種的投手，他有成為終結者的潛力。

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Tim (Boston): Hi Alex, for my tastes, Ben seemed pretty conservative in his
drafts, typically looking for high floor over high ceiling types...are there
any lesser known high ceiling guys in the system you could potentially see
taking off and rising into the top 10 at any point this season? Thanks!

Tim (Boston): 我覺得Cherington的選秀風格偏向保守，喜歡高地板勝過高天花板...還
有現在農場裡是否有知名度較低但有高天花板、能在這季爆發，衝進Top 10的新秀？

Alex Speier: I don’t think the Sox were wedded to any one form of emphasis
in the draft under Cherington. They mixed established college performers
(Marrero, Johnson, Benintendi) with high schoolers (Ball, Chavis, Kopech) in
the first round. There are a couple of intriguing names who have a chance to
make a jump in future prospect rankings, with some of the strongest reviews
being for Travis Lakins (RHP out of Ohio State this year). OF Yoan Aybar is
another fascinating one — huge ceiling, no floor.

Alex Speier: 我不認為Cherington有這種傾向─成熟的大學球員(Marrero, Johnson,
Benintendi)和高中生(Ball, Chavis, Kopech)都是近幾年的第一輪。

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Dan (Mid-Atlantic): Could Mauricio Dubon slide into the now-departed Carlos
Asuaje's role as utility man of the future in the system? Seems Dubon has
exceeded expectations and rose quickly. What's the scouting/organizational
view of him?

Dan (Mid-Atlantic): Mauricio Dubon是否能取代Carlos Asuaje的工具人位置？Dubon打
出超乎預期的成績，在新秀榜上大幅竄升。球探界和球團怎麼看他？

Alex Speier: Dubon has been regarded more highly than Asuaje throughout his
time in the minors — more versatile defender. He shows a skill set that
stands a solid chance of being at least a nice utility option, and some
evaluators think that he could develop a bit more as a hitter to the point of
future consideration as a starter (most likely at 2B).

Alex Speier: Dubon在小聯盟的評價高於Asuaje，他是個更多元的防守者。他的skill
set讓他有不小的機會能拿到工具人的位置，甚至有些球探認為他在打擊上會有突破，
成為先發等級球員(最有可能成為二壘手)。

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DR (Baltimore): Kopech looks like he's put on a lot of muscle, at least
according to his twitter. Does the organization feel he is poised to make a
big leap? Or is he still working on mechanical issues?

DR (Baltimore): Kopech似乎增加了不少肌肉，是不是球團覺得他已經轉備好要突破了
？還是他還在修正投球機制問題？

Alex Speier: I guess that depends on what he’s leaping from — he had a
really good run in his first full pro season (at 19) before his suspension
for an amphetamine. He’s always been strong and had velocity, so I don’t
know that one would expect him to develop more power, but certainly, if he
builds upon some of the progress he made as a pitcher during his suspension
and through instructional league, he could solidify a rotation development
track.

Alex Speier:這取決於你文中突破的基準點為何。他在第一個完整球季(19歲)有很棒的
表現─直到因為安非他命遭到禁賽。他一直都很壯也有很快的球速，所以我不認為有人
會預期他拿出更多power。當然，禁賽期間如果在這段期間謹遵指示訓練的畫，或許能穩
住先發投手養成計畫中的位置。

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Greg T. (Lake Central): What's the good word on Nick Longhi? Does he have a
bright future? Sleeper for 2016? Thanks.

Greg T. (Lake Central): Nick Longhi的優點為何？他有光明的未來嗎？2016年的黑
馬？

Alex Speier: Good hit tool but he’s a 1B/LF, which means that a lot of his
prospect value is tied up in his future power development. He’s strong and
young, so if the power does come, then he’s a pretty interesting prospect.
Otherwise, he’s more of a RHH corner bench guy. But the bat offers a good
foundation for prospect status.

Alex Speier: 不錯的hit tool但是他只能守1B/LF─因此他的價值將取決於power的養
成。他很年輕、強壯，如果power潛力確實實現，他將成為很有趣的新秀。不然他就只
能成為右打的1B/LF替補球員。

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@Jaypers413 (IL): About where would you have ranked Margot, Guerra and Allen,
had they not been traded?

@Jaypers413 (IL): 交易前Margot, Guerra 和 Allen的新秀排行？

Alex Speier: I had Guerra at 5, Margot at 7, Allen at 12. I ended up writing
them up for the Globe instead of BA… http://bit.ly/1mpyMlP

Alex Speier: Guerra 5, Margot 7, Allen 12

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Ringo (Octopusses Garden): So who just missed the top 10 list?

Ringo (Octopusses Garden): 誰落在Top 10外？

Alex Speier: Well, all of the guys who just missed ended up being bumped up
into the top-10 once the Padres trade went down! A couple of guys who were
added to the 40-man, Marco Hernandez and Pat Light, were among those who fell
just outside the final top 10.

Alex Speier: 原本跌出去的球員都因為Kimbrel交易案擠進去了。Marco Hernandez和
Pat Light正好落在十名外。

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＊Athletic frame.
＊High baseball IQ. Xander
＊Smooth, fluid swing. Bogaerts
＊Elite batspeed. #01
＊Strong and explosive hands.
＊Above-average-to-better power ceiling, potential 30 home run bat.

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