Prospects Chat - Alex Speier - 美國職棒

Shawn Adorno (Saugerties, NY): I've heard a comp of Carlos Delgado for Rafael
Devers. So hard to project power... but do you think that is his ceiling?
Also, how quickly do the Red Sox feel Moncada could reach the bigs? Thanks.

@Shawn Adorno (Saugerties, NY): 我聽到有人將Rafael Devers比為Carlos Delgado，
power真的很難預測啊...但你認為Devers的天花板在哪？

Alex Speier: His ceiling is middle-of-the-order All-Star, and he has a chance
to stay at third, which opens up a different array of comps. I heard
comparisons to young versions of Cano, Beltre, and Sandoval. There isn’t
that much imagination needed to project his power, though — I saw him
demolish some pitches to straightaway CF, in a way that 18-year-olds rarely
do.

Alex Speier: Devers的天花板是打線核心的全明星球員，而且他有機會待在三壘─這點
讓模板比較更複雜了。我聽到的版本有年輕版的Cano, Beltre, Sandoval。還有有關他的
power預測，其實不需要用太多的想像力補足，Devers已經能把球幹出中外野─這對18歲
球員來說是相當罕見的。

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CVC (Ohio): Is Marco Hernandez breakout sustainable? and do you think he'll
be able to be a regular or mainly just a utility player?

CVC (Ohio): Marco Hernandez的爆發能持續嗎？他能成為先發還是只能擔任工具人？

Alex Speier: Most likely a utility guy, but he’s a solid defender with the
ability to make some hard contact, so there’s at least a chance he could
spend time as something more than that at some point in his career.
Obviously, the Sox thought it was worth a 40-man spot to see where his 2015
step forward goes.

Alex Speier: 比較有可能成為工具人，但是他的防守佳、打擊能打得紮實，所以他至少
有機會獲得更多的上場機會。顯然紅襪認為把他加進40人名單、多加觀察是值得的。

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Kyle (Columbus): What is your opinion on Wendal Rijo. Was he close to making
this list. Does he look like a Regular or a utility player?

Kyle (Columbus): 你對Wendal Rijo的評價如何？他偏向先發還是工具人？

Alex Speier: Rijo doesn’t have a clean consensus. He has at least a chance
to be an everyday guy, because the hit tool is very advanced for a teenager
and he showed considerable defensive improvement this year at 2B. He doesn’t
seem to profile as a utility option, however, since he’s probably limited in
the IF to 2B. He’ll represent an interesting 40-man protection question
after this coming season.

Alex Speier: 球探們對Rijo的評價依然不一。他還有機會成為每日先發，因為他擁有超
齡的hit tool、二壘的防守也有大幅進步。

但是Rijo並不符合工具人的要件，他應該只能守內野或二壘。他在下季結束後能不能進
入40人名單將是觀察重點。

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Randall (Salem): What do we think the power upside on Benintendi is? Would
you venture a comp?

Randall (Salem): Benintendi的power天花板在哪？模板？

Alex Speier: He hit 31 homers in about 110 games in college and the minors
this year, so … the ultimate power upside has to be viewed as impressive,
even if a more reasonable expectation would be about half that figure. Some
of the comps brought up by scouts/evaluators: Mark Kotsay, LH version of
Mookie Betts (small in stature but with great approach and ability to barrel
the ball), Ellsbury, among others.

Alex Speier: 他在大學和小聯盟的110場比賽就打出31支全壘打，所以最高的天花板...
很棒─合理推估可能落在一半。有些球探的比較是Mark Kotsay、左打版Mookie Betts
(身材矮但打擊策略優異、能紮實咬中球)、Ellsbury等等。

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Ben (Rhode Island): I know it's tough to predict but who does Anderson
Espinoza remind you of in today's game? And what do you see his ceiling being?

Ben (Rhode Island): 我知道很難預測，但是Anderson Espinoza像哪位投手？他的天花
板在哪？

Alex Speier: His slight stature, smooth delivery, incredible power stuff, and
maturity/makeup prompted a lot of people to say that he reminded them of a
teenage Pedro, including Goose Gregson, the Red Sox’ Latin American pitching
coordinator who worked with a 16-/17-year-old Pedro with the Dodgers. Pedro
said the same. He has the makings of three plus pitches, so there’s
legitimate ace potential. That’s far from a guarantee (see Bundy, Dylan),
but he’s ridiculously talented at a ridiculously young age.

Alex Speier: 身材稍偏矮瘦、投球機制順暢、驚人的球速並擁有成熟度和不錯的makeup
，讓許多人聲稱看到年輕版Pedro(包含在Pedro年輕時合作過的訓練員)、甚至是Pedro
本人都這麼說。Espinosa有三個plus球種，所以這代表著ace潛力。當然這不能保證他確
實能成為ace(看看Dylan Bundy)，但是Espinosa這麼年輕就擁有這種天分，誇張。

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Raymond (New York): Hi Alex, what do you think of the cost for Kimbrel ? I
think the Red Sox did quite well as they kept a lot of their better prospects
and didn't lose any high draftees.(Owens,Johnson,Ball, Kopech,Bradley) thanks

Raymond (New York): 您覺得Kimbrel交易案的代價如何？我覺得紅襪做得很好，他們留
下很多更棒的新秀，也沒丟掉高順位選進來的人(Owens,Johnson,Ball, Kopech,
Bradley)。

Alex Speier: They preserved their complete inventory of major league
cornerstone players (Bogaerts, Betts, Swihart, Rodriguez) and their top four
prospects. I’m still at least a bit surprised that three prospects of that
caliber ended up getting moved (Guerra and Margot along with Asuaje wouldn’t
have done it?), but I also think that the way the market values relievers is
in a state of flux that requires everyone to reassess their preconceptions …
in the same way that we need to stop expressing shock that “OMG, how is
worth $20 million a year?” To get an elite starter along with two elite
relievers while giving up two excellent prospects who happened to be at
redundant positions and keeping the draft pick … the larger picture seems
reasonable for what the Sox have done this offseason.

Alex Speier: 紅襪保留了所有大聯盟基石(Bogaerts, Betts, Swihart, Rodriguez)以及
四大新秀。我多少還是對於三個這種層級的新秀被賣掉感到驚訝，但我認為市場對於牛棚
投手的價值衡量已經改變了，大家必須跟著改變舊思維─就像是我們必須停止屏除「挖，
$20M欸，好貴」這種思維。為了抓下王牌先發和兩個優質牛棚，賣掉位置重複的兩位頂級
新秀並留下選秀權...通盤思考，紅襪的move似乎合情合理。

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JJ O'Connor (Mass): Where would Manuel Margot rank on this list? And is it
true he wasn't as valued by Red Sox officials as most in the outside thought?

JJ O'Connor (Mass): Manuel Margot排在哪？他在紅襪眼中是否沒外界估的那麼高？

Alex Speier: He was valued plenty … but the Sox have Betts, Bradley,
Benintendi, not to mention Basabe. The industry consensus on him, both inside
and outside the Sox organization, came across as very consistent: Excellent
likelihood of being a roughly average everyday CF who hits in the bottom
third of the order.

Alex Speier: 他的評價很高，但是紅襪手上已經有Betts, Bradley, Benintendi，還有
是Basabe。球團內外的評價都很類似，很高的機會能成為平均等級的先發CF、打線中的
最後三棒。

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Wellington (Fort Myers, FL): There seems to be a drop off after the top 6/7.
Anyone on the lower levels of the system that could make a big leap?

Wellington (Fort Myers, FL): 感覺第6,7名跟後面的新秀有很大的落差。後面有哪位新
秀能爆發？

Alex Speier: I do agree that there’s a pretty significant drop beyond the
top seven — not a lot of guys beyond that who combine high probability with
high ceiling, but that’s the nature of the beast. It was, frankly,
ridiculous that the Sox had as deep a pool of high-end prospects as they did
prior to the Kimbrel trade.

Alex Speier: 我同意Top 7跟後面有不小差距，農場裡高成功率與高天花板兼具的球員
畢竟是少數，但是在Kimbrel交易案前紅襪農場中的高級新秀深度只能用誇張來形容。

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Adirondack (Syracuse, NY): Red Sox first baseman of the future, Travis Shaw
or Sam Travis? Which player has the better all around skills?

Adirondack (Syracuse, NY): 紅襪未來一壘手，Travis Shaw or Sam Travis？哪一位
選手較為全面？

Alex Speier: Good question. Travis has a better hit tool. Shaw has more
present power and is a better defender. He’s also lefthanded, which helps.
Somehow, I see the Sox gerrymandering playing time for both for a number of
years.

Alex Speier: 好問題。Travis有比較優的hit tool，Shaw展現出更多power，防守也比較
好─而且是左打，這點有不小幫助。我的感覺是紅襪有幾年會給兩個人分享上場時間。

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Manolo Ozuna (Providence, RI): How do scouts grade Espinoza's secondary
pitches?

Manolo Ozuna (Providence, RI): 球探對Espinosa的變化球評價？

Alex Speier: The changeup and curve were both viewed as being at least
average now, albeit without the consistency one would seek out of a major
leaguer. But Espinoza has super-long fingers that let him perform some feats
of prestidigitation when it comes to manipulating and spinning a baseball.

Alex Speier: changeup和curve至少都是average，但還缺乏大聯盟球員的穩定性。
題外話，Espinosa擁有超長的手指，這給他操控球種的優勢。

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＊Athletic frame.
＊High baseball IQ. Xander
＊Smooth, fluid swing. Bogaerts
＊Elite batspeed. #01
＊Strong and explosive hands.
＊Above-average-to-better power ceiling, potential 30 home run bat.

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