Offseason In Review: Boston Red Sox - 美國職棒

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Offseason In Review: Boston Red Sox

By Tim Dierkes [April 8, 2009 at 9:58am CST]


Next up in our Offseason In Review series, the Red Sox. Here's what we wrote
about them on October 20th. Changes for 2009:


Additions: Brad Penny, John Smoltz, Ramon Ramirez,Takashi Saito, Rocco
Baldelli, Junichi Tazawa, Tim Wakefield (exercised option), Jason Varitek
(re-signed), Mark Kotsay (re-signed), Brad Wilkerson, Randor Bierd, Nick Green,
Billy Traber. Midseason: Jason Bay


Subtractions: Coco Crisp, David Aardsma, Mike Timlin, Paul Byrd, Sean Casey,
David Pauley, Kevin Cash, Bartolo Colon, David Ross, Alex Cora. Midseason:
Manny Ramirez, Brandon Moss, Craig Hansen


Extensions: Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, Jon Lester


Despite taking a very different approach from the Yankees, the Red Sox also had
a positive offseason. They extended three talented young players and
maintained financial flexibility by signing free agents to low base salary
contracts.


Last year the Red Sox ranked 2nd in the AL with 5.22 runs scored per game.
Changes in the '09 lineup include the subtraction of Manny, Crisp, and
possibly Lugo, as well as more time for Bay and Lowrie. CHONE projections and
the Baseball Musings lineup analysis tool predict the best offense in the
league: 5.62 runs per game. Theoretically the Baldelli addition can limit the
damage if Drew is to miss time.


Boston's '08 rotation ranked 3rd in the AL with a 4.02 ERA in 966.6 innings.
The '09 rotation is similar but deeper with the additions of Penny and Smoltz
and the possible emergence of Clay Buchholz. Michael Bowden, a quality young
pitcher, seems buried on the depth chart. I tweaked CHONE's innings
projections and ended up with a 4.13 ERA for this year's group. That seems
pessimistic but we'll go with it.


Last year's bullpen posted a 4.00 ERA in 479.6 innings (I know these bullpen
ERAs aren't great indicators but let's not overcomplicate things). The
subtractions of Timlin, Aardsma, and Hansen help. Add in more innings from
Masterson as well as imports Ramirez and Saito, and this 'pen projects at a
3.43 ERA. Even if they're not that good I can still see a few extra wins this
year.


Defensively the Red Sox ranked 5th in the AL according to The Fielding Bible
II. I don't think they'll suffer for the losses of Crisp and Manny.


Like the Yankees, the Red Sox project on paper to win 100+ games. Of course,
for both teams some players will get hurt and have unexpected seasons. Plus,
the quality of competition in the division should bring down those win totals.


Bottom line: The Red Sox failed to sign Mark Teixeira, but he was a luxury for
them anyway. I liked Boston's low-risk offseason approach, and it's scary to
think that they could make major summer trade acquisitions.




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