Non-Tender Candidate: Hong-Chih Kuo - 美國職棒

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/10/non-tender-candidate-hong-chih-kuo.html


There is no position in baseball more volatile than relief pitcher, which is
how Hong-Chih Kuo can go from being one of the most dominant bullpen arms in
the game last September to taking about retirement this September. As a
result of his 2011 struggles and off-the-field issues, the Dodgers'
left-hander is a candidate to be non-tendered this offseason.

Kuo, 30, allowed just 29 hits and eight runs (1.20 ERA) in 60 innings in
2010, striking out 73 (11.0 K/9) and walking just 18 (2.7 BB/9). Left-handed
batters had no chance against him that season, hitting just .095/.159/.111
with 28 strikeouts in 69 plate appearances. When Jonathan Broxton struggled
in the second half, Kuo stepped in and went a perfect 9-for-9 in save chances
in August and September. At $950K, he was a bargain.

That performance pushed Kuo's salary up to $2.725MM in 2011, his second time
through arbitration. Unfortunately, his 2010 performance did not carry over.
After walking four batters in his first 2 2/3 innings of the season (four
appearances), the Dodgers placed Kuo on the DL with a lower back strain. He
was activated on May 1st, struggled in his next five appearances (six runs in
two innings), and was again placed on the DL on May 11th. This time he was
dealing with social anxiety disorder.

One day later we heard that Kuo was not considering retirement, but it wasn't
until June 19th that he was activated off the DL. He struggled the rest of
the season, allowing 22 runs in 22 1/3 innings across 31 appearances. He did
strike out 28 men, but he also walked 17. All told, Kuo pitched to a 9.00 ERA
with 7.7 BB/9 in 40 appearances and 27 innings in 2011.

After the season, Kuo told MLB.com's Ken Gurnick that he needed a break from
baseball and was unsure if he'd ever play again. "If I want to still play and
somebody wants to give me a try, I'll play," he said. "If not, fine with me.
I'll miss it." He indicated that his alternative to baseball would be
returning home to Taiwan and opening a restaurant.

Our projections have Kuo's salary going down to $2.5MM next season, what
would be his third time through arbitration. It's worth noting that he's been
battling the injury bug for his entire career, one that's featured a total of
four elbow operations, including a pair of Tommy John surgeries.
Hard-throwing lefty relievers (he's averaged 93.4 mph with the fastball in
his career) are a valuable commodity, but Kuo's bout with social anxiety
disorder and extreme control problems in 2011 could lead to a non-tender.
It'll be interesting to see if any teams are willing to offer him a
guaranteed Major League contract if he does in fact hit the market.

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