May be time to trade Felix Hernandez - 美國職棒

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/19137/may-be-time-to-trade-felix-hernandez



In 2011, the Seattle Mariners finished 29 wins behind the Texas Rangers. They
finished 19 wins behind the Los Angeles Angels.

Mariners general manager Jack Zduriencik has adamantly refused to listen to
offers for ace right-hander Felix Hernandez, no matter the desire of the New
York media to stir up trade rumors.

But that was B.A. -- Before Albert.

"It certainly creates a challenge in our division, no doubt," Zduriencik said
Thursday after the Angels reached terms with Albert Pujols. "A bigger
challenge than had already been there."

Besides Pujols and fellow free agent signee C.J. Wilson, the Angels have
young stud Mike Trout ready to make a big impact on the win column. They have
Peter Bourjos and Mark Trumbo still making close to the league minimum salary
while providing solid production and likely improvement. They may get Kendrys
Morales back. With Wilson, Jered Weaver and Dan Haren, their rotation now
possesses three of the American League's top-10 starting pitchers of 2011.

In other words, the Angels are going to be extremely tough for at least a
couple years, before Haren is eligible for free agency after the 2013 season,
before Pujols perhaps starts declining, and before the young players start
requiring contracts that will eat up larger chunks of the team budget.

Meanwhile, the Rangers appear ready to absorb the loss of Wilson -- they'll
move Neftali Feliz into the rotation, and they still have a core of players
in their primes in Josh Hamilton, Ian Kinsler, Adrian Beltre, and Elvis
Andrus. They have money to spend, although some of that will have to go
signing Hamilton and Kinsler to extensions. Still, don't be surprised if they
win the rights to Yu Darvish, as they seek an ace to replace Wilson.

Add it up and you have to do a lot of funny math to make the Mariners
contenders in 2012 or '13, even if they sign Prince Fielder.

That takes us to 2014 -- the final year of Hernandez's contract. At that
point, facing years of losing and poor run support in his rear-view mirror,
what are the odds Hernandez would sign an extension with the Mariners? He'd
still be turning just 29 years old early in the 2015 season, meaning he'd be
ripe for a mega-contract before that season from one of the usual big-market
franchises (which includes the Angels and Rangers).

The future of the Mariners sits with 2011 rookie gem Michael Pineda, plus
pitching prospects Taijuan Walker, Danny Hultzen and James Paxton, all of
whom have top-of-the-rotation potential. Outside of second baseman Dustin
Ackley, however, the position players don't rate as high, and the guys who do
have a chance to impact the major league level (Nick Franklin, Alex Liddi,
Vinnie Catricala) need more time in the minors.

That means, realistically, the Mariners are aiming for 2014 at the earliest.
By then, Hernandez's trade value won't be as high; and if they are
competitive by then, it would be because Pineda, Hultzen, Paxton and Walker
are in the rotation ... which, in theory, would make King Felix more
expendable.

So do you trade Hernandez now, when his value his highest and his arm
healthy? I'm not a fan of advocating trading a superstar, since those trades
rarely work out (see: the Indians and Phillies trading Cliff Lee). But
sometimes they do, such as when the Rangers acquired Andrus, Feliz and Matt
Harrison for Mark Teixeira. None of those players were actually that close to
the majors, so the Rangers took a big risk that paid off. If the Mariners
would be willing to trade Hernandez, they would want at least one bat that is
major league ready with big-time power potential ... plus a lot more.

So, yes, to fan the fire: Jesus Montero, Brett Gardner, Manny Banuelos and
another prospect could get Zduriencik thinking, no?

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