LESTER TO BE IN A CLASS BY HIMSELF - 美國職棒

http://www.weei.com/Red-Sox-Jon-Lester-Report-Agree-Long-Term-Deal/3984153

By Alex Speier

WEEI.com


Presuming that the Yahoo! report accurately represents the terms of a
potential deal, the Red Sox are paying Lester as if he is indeed a rare
breed.

Since 2005, there have been six pre-arbitration pitchers signed to long-term
deals after two-plus seasons: Cliff Lee (4 years, $15 million), Adam
Wainwright (4 years, $15 million), Jake Peavy (4 years, $14.5 million), Chris
Young (4 years, $14.5 million), Scott Baker (4 years, $14.5 million) and Jeff
Francis (4 years, $13.25 million).

All of those pitchers except Wainwright have offered the club a one-year
option that would buy out their first year of free agency for $7-9.25
million. Wainwright gave the Cardinals options on his first two free-agent
years, valued at $9 million and $12 million.

A five-year, $30 million guaranteed contract, then, would guarantee Lester $6
million more than any of those peers through his first free-agent year. The
Sox would be placing more trust (as defined by guaranteed dollars) in Lester
than any other club for any other pitcher who had not yet reached arbitration
eligibility.

So why would Lester get such a bump?

Either he is viewed as a pitcher who has separated himself from other
pitchers with two-plus years of service time (unlikely, given that both Lee
and Peavy have won Cy Youngs) or that other contracts are influencing his.

The latter scenario appears more likely. It would seem that a few contracts
represent key markers for a long-term deal for Lester.

Indians pitcher Fausto Carmona, after just more than a year of big-league
service, signed a four-year, $15 million deal at the start of 2008. The deal
could be worth up to $36 million for the guaranteed term of Lester’s
contract (if the Indians exercise a pair of options to buy out one free-agent
year), and up to $48 million total (as compared to $43 million for Lester)
for a second year of free agency.

Left-hander Cole Hamels, who won the World Series MVP for the Phillies this
October, offers another point of comparison. Hamels, who has played just
under three seasons in the majors, was arbitration-eligible for the first
time this winter.

The Phillies will pay the pitcher $20.5 million over the next three years.
For a five-year, $30 million deal, the Sox would pay close to but slightly
less than that amount for Lester’s arbitration years.

Angels pitcher Ervin Santana, who went 16-7 with a 3.49 ERA last year and was
arbitration-eligible this winter after reaching more than three years of
service in the majors, signed a four-year, $30 million deal this offseason.
The deal bought out one year of free agency, and also featured a $13 million
club option that is identical to the one that Lester has reportedly offered.

For all intents and purposes, Lester’s deal matches that of Santana.
Long-term deals for pitchers with comparable service time usually offer a low
salary (less than $1 million) in the first season, suggesting that Lester’s
arbitration-eligible and free-agent seasons are valued almost identically
with Santana’s.

That in itself would represent a coup for the Red Sox pitcher, since the
earlier a player signs a long-term deal, the less money he typically gets,
since there is less data about his long-term performance.

“I think it is quite a leap of faith, but could save (the Sox) money in the
long run,” one executive of another club suggested. “The obviously believe
in Lester.”


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