Kelly: Perennially an Adjustment Away - 美國職棒

Joe Kelly: Perennially an Adjustment Away
Eno Sarris

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/joe-kelly-perennially-an-adjustment-away/

Joe Kelly always seems just a tweak away from greatness. He owns one of the
biggest fastballs in the game, and has decent secondary pitches that don’t
deserve scorn either. His command isn’t great, but he’s no Henry Rodriguez
either. Throw a little bit more of one pitch, or a little bit less of
another, the thinking has gone, and we’ll finally see greatness from the guy
to match his athleticism and velocity.

Joe Kelly距離優異似乎總是一步之遙。他有優異的fastball、其他球種也不錯，至少不會
被嫌爛。他的command不大好，但他至少不是Henry Rodriguez。或許多丟某一球種、少丟
某一球種，他就會拿出符合運動能力和球速的表現。

You might have to admit that the latest tweak, suggested publicly by his
manager, makes you wonder if there’s a fatal flaw that will forever keep the
26-year-old Red Sox starter from realizing his potential. It’s already the
third such tweak that either the player or the team has discussed since they
acquired him late last year.

不過聽了總仔最近的發言後，不禁讓人懷疑是不是Kelly有永遠無法實現潛力的致命傷。
這個轉折在交易後已經出現了三次。

One of the first prescriptions came from Curt Schilling. On air, he’s talked
about Kelly using the four-seamer more often, especially high. That would
change the eye level and up the velocity on the pitch, two things that should
help him strike batters out more. Makes sense, and it seems that, at least on
some level, Kelly has listened.

第一個是Curt Schilling的建議：多丟四縫線，尤其是高吊球。這會讓打者改變視線高度
，同時Kelly能催出更快的球速─這能讓Kelly三振更多對手。某種程度上Kelly聽了進去。

Before the trade, his pitching mix from Brooks Baseball, with velocity,
average fastball height as it crosses the plate, and whiff rates.

交易前

Pitch Type Freq Velo (mph) swSTR% Vertical Loc
Fourseam 10.3% 95.8 6.4% -0.2
Sinker 57.2% 95.4 5.1% -0.3

And then after the trade.

交易後

Pitch Type Freq Velo (mph) swSTR% Vertical Loc
Fourseam 15.5% 96.5 8.5% -0.1
Sinker 52.0% 96.0 3.6% -0.3

More four-seamers. Slightly higher in the zone. Getting more whiffs. It hasn’
t been enough to change Kelly’s fortunes, and recently he swore off the
approach. Check out the lede from the game story on a recent start:

Kelly丟了更多四縫線、高度稍微高了一點。揮棒落空更多，但不足以改變Kelly的命運─
而他最近也放棄了這個方法。

先前的報導(05/14對戰水手)：

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SEATTLE, Wash. — Here’s what a successful day at the office looks like for
Red Sox right-handed starter Joe Kelly: 14 ground ball outs, three fly ball
outs and two strikeouts.

成功的關鍵：14滾地出局、三飛球出局與兩次三振。

The key to inducing so many ground ball outs?

製造滾地球的關鍵？

“I threw one four-seam fastball,” he said. “I just stayed with my two-seam
all the time because I feel like I had command on both sides (of the plate).
The other day I was throwing more four-seams and and just yanking them off
the plate.”

「我只丟了一顆四縫線。我整場固守我的二縫線，因為這樣我才能順利利用好球帶兩側。
先前丟四縫線都丟不進好球帶。」 (不確定有沒有誤解意思，有錯麻煩指證~)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Going into this season, Kelly was ecstatic about his slider. According to the
pitcher, it was the first time he’d thrown the slider in years. Rob Bradford
remembers it as the slider that led to so much success at UC Irvine. And
after his first outing, it was easy to fall into the same excitement that led
Kelly to declare he was going to win the Cy Young this year.

開季後Kelly也對他的slider感到興奮。根據他的說法，這是他多年以來首次使用slider
─而slider正是他在UC Irvine成功的原因(via Rob Bradford)。而在第一場比賽後，這
份興奮感讓Kelly宣告他要挑戰賽揚獎。 http://bit.ly/1HUs9Oj

For sure, the slider has changed.

當然，滑球方面也變了。

Freq Velo swSTR Horiz Move Vert Move
Slider Before 9.6% 83.8 15.5% 4.8 -1.9
Slider ’15 14.1% 86.3 22.5% 3.3 -1.9

It’s harder and straighter now, and it’s getting more whiffs. Who knows
what Kelly called his last slider, but this new slider is looking good. He
should throw it more! It’s a top-ten slider among starters! He is, but not
by a ton. And again, his swinging strikes are up a bit, but not a ton. He’s
still tied for the fastest fastball in the big leagues, with two other guys
that don’t get the whiffs you’d expect.

球速更快、球路更直，也製造更多揮空。天曉得Kelly為何停止丟slider，但是這次
新的slider看起來不錯─他應該丟更多slider才對！這是先發投手的Top 10 slider！
他增加了用量，但沒有到非常多；揮空率增加了，但不到非常多。另外他還並列聯盟
最快的fastball，而另外兩位火球男的揮空率並沒有各位想像的好。

(本季Ventura 7.6%, Eovaldi 4.8%)

Now the most recent edict.

From a post called “Red Sox would like Joe Kelly to diversify his mix“, Tim
Britton relays Kelly’s newest prescription for success, handed down by the
manager.

最新的說法(05/25被雙城血洗)：總教練說Kelly成功的關鍵是配球上多混合球種。

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

MINNEAPOLIS — A day after he was shelled for seven runs in just 1 2/3
innings, Joe Kelly sat down and reviewed the ugly tape with manager John
Farrell and pitching coach Carl Willis.

Farrell、Willis和Kelly研究了可怕的比賽影片。

The verdict? The same as Farrell’s been saying really since Kelly was
acquired from St. Louis last season: The right-hander should be throwing his
curveball more.

結論是Farrell自交易案後一直提到的：他應該多丟curveball。

“I still contend and strongly believe that his curveball is a major weapon
that’s got to be used in his pitch mix,” Farrell said. “You look back at
the Texas game: He made a very tangible adjustment after three innings of
work when he went to his curveball more than his slider and slowed them down
and had some quick and efficient innings. It’s part of the education process
of who Joe is as a pitcher and what makes him most effective.”

「我依然堅信Kelly的curveball是能搭配進配球的的主要武器。回顧對遊騎兵的比賽，
他在三局後成功利用curveball調整回來，丟得比slider還多，成功慢下對手節奏並丟出
簡潔的局數。這是個學習如何提高投球效率的過程。」

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

This might be the weirdest road map of them all. By whiffs, his curve is his
worst non-fastball when compared to the league average by whiffs.

這就怪了，與聯盟平均相比，他curveball的揮空率是次球種中最差的。

It is his best ground-ball pitch. But Joe Kelly‘s 52% career ground-ball
rate has been his best statistical feature other than fastball velocity. Is
this really the final step?

Curveball是他最佳的滾地球種，不過Kelly的52%滾地球比已經是fastball球速之外最佳
的數據了，這真的是他的最後一個步驟嗎？

As Farrell points out, the curve is his slowest pitch, and by using it more,
he can stretch the possible velocities hitters will see from 80 mph to 96.
That might benefit his sinker and fastballs more than another tick of
velocity would. And it could work better than the new slider, or the high
four-seamers.

Farrell的說法是curveball是他最慢的球種，藉由速差(80~96)來迷惑對手，能有效地增
加fastball和sinker的效果。Farrell也認為用curveball製造速差會比新slider、高吊
四縫線有用。

Mostly, throwing the curve more might work because there’s a hint of a
possibility that Kelly can get the curve over inside the strike zone, which
hasn’t been true of his other pitches over time. Look at the zone
percentages of his different pitches, indexed to the league averages of each
pitch, and you’ll see he can’t command his secondary stuff.

丟curveball可能有用最大原因或許是他能把curveball丟進好球帶內─這是他其他球種沒
有達到的。看看他的球種的Zone%(與聯盟平均比較)，你可以看出他並不能有效command
他的secondary pitch。

Pitch Index Zone%
2015 FA 124
2015 FT 106
2015 CU 95
2015 SL 70
2015 CH 30

Total FA 122
Total FC 104
Total FT 101
Total CU 90
Total CH 83
Total SL 74

If your changeup has good shape and velocity, but you only hit the zone with
it with one out of every eight thrown… then your changeup isn’t much use.
They’ll stop swinging at it.

就算你的changeup有很棒的球路和速度，但是你丟不進好球帶的話(今年Zone% 12.5%)，
那就沒用啦─對手會停止出棒。

So there you have it: stealing strikes with the curve ball is what will help
Joe Kelly make good on his promise. Either that, or we’ll all have to go
back to the drawing board.

結論：或許用curveball偷好球是幫助他突破的方法；或者，我們又得繼續回來談啦。

--
＊Athletic frame.
＊High baseball IQ. Xander
＊Smooth, fluid swing. Bogaerts
＊Elite batspeed. #01
＊Strong and explosive hands.
＊Above-average-to-better power ceiling, potential 30 home run bat.

--