Free Agent Profile: Francisco Liriano - 美國職棒

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014-15-free-agent-profiles

Francisco Liriano‘s last venture into the free agent market came on the
heels of a down season split between the Twins and White Sox, and resulted in
a low-risk two-year deal for the Pirates. After playing an integral role in
two straight postseason appearances for Pittsburgh, the lefty will hit the
open market in a much stronger position.

上一次Liriano幾乎是生涯最低點進到ＦＡ，也因此只能拿到樂透級的二年約

在連續兩年的好表現帶海賊打進季後賽之後，這次他的處境將會好得多


Strengths/Pros 強項

There’s little doubting that Liriano has the talent to be one of the most
dominant arms in the game. As a 22-year-old rookie in 2006, he looked to be
an unhittable force (2.16 ERA, 10.7 K/9, 2.4 BB/9) that would have garnered
Cy Young attention had Tommy John surgery not stopped his season at 121
innings. His recovery was longer than most, and while he struggled in
2008-09, he returned to form with a dominant 2010 season worth nearly six
fWAR.

沒人懷疑他有成為頂尖投手的天分，０６年他才２２歲就成為賽揚獎候選人之一

即使隨後因ＴＪ手術讓他連兩季都投的掙扎，１０年的強勢回歸仍然繳出６ＷＡＲ

Over his past two seasons with the Pirates, Liriano has
turned in 323 1/3 innings of 3.20 ERA with 9.4 K/9, 4.0 BB/9 and a strong
52.4 percent ground-ball rate. Sabermetric ERA estimators such as FIP and
xFIP both peg Liriano’s true talent with Pittsburgh at a 3.26 ERA, so both
old-school and new-school lines of thinking paint him as a well above-average
pitcher when he’s at his best.

過去兩季在海賊的323 1/3局，繳出3.20 ERA, 9.4 K/9, 4.0 BB/9跟52.4%的滾球率

數據派與傳統的評估方式都顯示當他狀況好時，他是個遠高於平均的投手

Part of the reason for Liriano’s resurgence with the Bucs is that he’s
rediscovered some life on his fastball. The 31-year-old has averaged 92.8 mph
on his heater over the past two seasons, whereas in some of his weakest
seasons, his velocity sat 90-91 mph. He doesn’t have the 94.7 mph average he
did as a rookie, but his average velocity is still tops among free agent
lefties.

他能在海賊復活，部分原因是他找回了他的球速（過去兩季平均92.8 mph）

他表現不好的幾個球季，均速只有90-91 mph而已

他不再是那個均速94.7 mph的投手，但現在的球速在ＦＡ左投中仍然位於前列

When Liriano’s velocity is working, he racks up strikeouts at a prolific
clip. He’s whiffed 9.2 hitters per nine innings throughout his career (even
including his down seasons), and this year’s 9.7 K/9 mark trails only Max
Scherzer among free agent starters.

當他球速出的來，他的三振率就會是Scherzer等級的

Liriano turned 31 after the season, so he’ll pitch the entire 2015 regular
season at that age. That makes him younger than a number of his peers in the
second tier of the starting pitching market, including Ervin Santana, Brandon
McCarthy and former teammate Edinson Volquez.

１５年球季他才３１歲而已，比Santana, McCarthy, Volquez等第二級ＦＡ先發都年輕


Weaknesses/Cons 弱點

For as good as Liriano can be, there’s no ignoring the inconsistency and
injuries that have, to some extent, defined his career to this point. Liriano
has finished with an ERA well north of 5.00 in three full seasons, and in two
of those seasons he walked five hitters per nine innings. Agent Greg Genske
of the Legacy Agency can point to Liriano’s longer-than-usual recovery from
Tommy John surgery as the culprit for those marks in 2009 and shoulder
inflammation for the 2011 season, but Liriano floundered under two separate
pitching coaches in 2012 and was injury-free that year.

表現起伏大且太痛

生涯有三個球季ＥＲＡ在５以上，其中兩季每九局送出５次以上的保送

他的經紀人解釋這是因為ＴＪ手術的影響，以及１２年換了兩個投手教練

Even in his two excellent seasons with the Pirates, Liriano spent significant
time on the DL in each campaign. The first was a freak accident — a fracture
in his non-throwing arm sustained while falling in his apartment — but the
second injury, an oblique strain, did cost him more than a month in 2014.

即使在他表現傑出的前兩季，他還是有相當的時間進ＤＬ

All told, Liriano has had seven trips to the DL in a nine-year career. As
such, he’s topped 180 innings just once — back in his stellar 2010 season.
As I noted in my profile of fellow injury-prone starter Brandon McCarthy,
teams are likely to show trepidation when it comes to multi-year contracts
for pitchers without a track record of durability. No matter how great the
upside, the downside of receiving 100-120 innings and having to patch
together that rotation spot with a potentially replacement-level arm is
concerning.

九年生涯已經進了７次ＤＬ，只有一季投超過１８０局，在他傑出的１０年球季

球隊在考慮給他或McCarthy這類痛痛人複數年合約時，必然會考慮到耐投性的問題

無論他多有天分，一旦只能投100-120局，其他局數補上來的將是replacement-level等級

Control has oft been an issue for Liriano throughout his Major League tenure
as well. He averaged 4.5 walks per nine innings in 2014 and has averaged 3.9
for his career. The Pirates made a qualifying offer to Liriano, and while
some were surprised by the decision, I expect him to reject in search of
multiple years due to his age and recent success. As Santana showed last
spring, even if the market collapses, it’s still possible to find a one-year
contract at or near the value of the QO late in the offseason.

除此之外，控球也是Liriano長期以來的問題

生涯平均每九局送出3.9次四壞球，上季更高達4.5次

海賊已經開給他ＱＯ，沒有意外的話他將會拒絕


Personal 個人特質

Liriano is married and has three children with his wife, per the Pirates
media guide. They make their home in the Dominican Republic in the offseason.
He comes from a good baseball family, as his cousin is Giants setup
man/closer Santiago Casilla.

Liriano has a reserved and quiet image but is seen as an excellent teammate
by those who have played with him and was asked to take up a leadership role
with the Pirates in recent years, particularly following the departure of the
veteran A.J. Burnett.

他給人安靜靦腆的感覺，但與他共事過的人都認為他是個好隊友

在A.J. Burnett離開海賊後，他也擔起老大哥的角色


Market　市場狀況

Beyond the top three starters on the market, Liriano is in the mix for the
top second-tier starter along with names like McCarthy, Santana and Kenta
Maeda. Liriano’s camp can likely build a case that he has the highest
ceiling among those arms, and despite the undeniable risk associated with
Liriano, it’s an arguable point. Liriano misses more bats than the other
three and has had four very strong seasons at the Major League level, even if
there was some distance between them.

除了三巨頭外，第二級的ＦＡ先發包括McCarthy, Santana跟前田健太

Liriano陣營當然會強調他的天花板比上述這些人都高，當然風險可能也是

他的優勢在於他更常讓打者揮空，而且在大聯盟已經有過四季的好表現

A large number of teams are going to be in the market for rotation help, and
many won’t be able to afford the likes of Scherzer, Jon Lester and James
Shields. Liriano could be the top target for some clubs, and it’s possible
that one of the teams who inks one of the big three could wish to add Liriano
as a second boost to the rotation. The Red Sox are said to be eyeing multiple
starters and have been connected to Liriano, and the Cubs, too, are known to
be seeking multiple starting pitchers. Both teams will have a protected
first-round pick, as will the Astros, D’Backs, Rockies, Rangers and Twins,
each of whom has some need in the rotation (it’s unclear if the Twins would
have any interest in rekindling that relationship, however). I’ll also add
the Mariners, Yankees, Giants, Royals and Dodgers as teams I could see
entering the mix, though the M’s of course seem likely to first focus on
their offense.

他是很多負擔不起三巨頭又想補強先發的球隊的首選，

也是搶下三巨頭之一後，想進一步補強輪值的球隊如紅襪、小熊等球隊的選項

而上述兩隊的第一輪選秀權都受到保護

An interesting point raised to me by MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes is that Liriano and
Russell Martin could make an interesting package this offseason. A team that
signed Martin would have less to lose than others in adding Liriano, having
already forfeited a pick, and the two have worked well together in the past.
The Cubs, Rockies and Dodgers seem like at least plausible fits in that
regard.

Liriano跟Russell Martin或許會到同一隊，一方面他們過去合作愉快，

而且簽下其中一人的球隊，相較於其他隊再簽一人的代價比較低（只要賠第二輪）


Expected Contract　預期合約

Simply put, I’m of the strong belief that speculation regarding Liriano
accepting a qualifying offer is largely overblown. Liriano will pitch all of
next season at 31 years of age and is coming off a pair of strong seasons
with flashes of brilliance in his past. There’s no ignoring the risk
associated with his arm, but I believe that offers in the $10-15MM range
could be waiting at the end of the offseason even if the multi-year deal
Liriano’s camp covets ultimately fails to materialize.

Liriano接受ＱＯ的可能性被過度誇大了，即使他要不到複數年約，

在開季前要到與ＱＯ價格差不多的一年約也不是問題

Surrendering a first-round pick for Liriano is a risk, but there are 10 teams
that can sign him for a second-round pick, and it’s not inconceivable that
he ends up costing “only” a third-round pick if an aggressive team on the
free agent front adds multiple players with QOs looming over their heads.

賠第一輪簽他是個賭注，不過有十隊都有受保護的第一輪選秀權

如果某隊在ＦＡ市場上撒錢，也有可能只要賠第三輪就能簽他

Players with this type of injury history and inconsistency rarely, if ever,
get four-year deals, but we saw a less consistent Ubaldo Jimenez land four
years last offseason. Regardless of how that deal looks now, it still serves
as a reference point that upside can trump inconsistency. Liriano doesn’t
have Jimenez’s durability so the fourth year feels like a reach (although I
do feel it’s possible), but I believe he’ll receive some three-year offers.
In the end, I’m predicting a three-year, $40MM contract for Liriano.

考量他的大起大落跟傷病史，他可能很難拿到四年約，或許會有幾張三年約的開價

對照比較耐投的Ubaldo Jimenez去年跟金鶯簽的四年５０Ｍ合約

我猜測他可以拿到三年４０Ｍ

－－－

Liriano是另一個被預測可能到紅襪的先發，

如果能保持健康，他的天分就擺在那裏，但這個如果本身就是個賭注

考慮到我們３Ａ有幾個接近ＲＥＡＤＹ的人選，個人覺得搶他的可能性蠻大的

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