Five Questions: Boston Red Sox - 美國職棒

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Five Questions: Boston Red Sox

by Evan Brunell / April 06, 2009



As the decade winds to a close, the Red Sox have to be considered the team that
did the most significant 180°. From a frustrating "just good enough to tear
our hearts out every September" team beloved by all as the Little Engine That
(Never) Could to a big-market, confident team with a winning pedigree and scorn
from those who had cheered them on so heartily in 2003 and 2004. No team has
experienced such a drastic shift in every facet of the club: from a decrepit
ballpark being rejuvenated to a lifetime-long ownership regime ending to the
minor league system bearing fruit to two World Series rings. Now, the Sox have
added depth their team in hopes it can get them a third ring after losing to
the Tampa Bay Rays in the ALCS last year, despite having pushed the series to
seven games.



Can the club stay healthy?

True, the health issue is more prevalent with the New York Yankees, but the Red
Sox have their fair share of questions on the health front.

To wit, can Josh Beckett turn in a healthy season? To date, in Beckett's eight
years, he has only reached the 30-start plateau twice: 2006 and 2007 with the
Red Sox, also the only times he has topped the 200 inning barrier. Last season,
he made 27 starts. The odds on Beckett staying healthy are rare, but he has
made significant strides since (a) getting out of the humid weather of Florida
which contributed to blister troubles and (b) having a medical staff termed one
of the best in the league on his side. Even if Beckett lands on the 15-day DL
at some point this season, odds are it will be for something relatively minor
to serve as a breather for him. This is what happened last year; Beckett took a
two-week breather on the DL to tune up for October and recover from the innings
load he had been on the full year previous. Projecting long-term injuries is
hard to do, but unless a freak injury occurs, Beckett should be good for at
least 25 starts. With the depth the Sox have, that's not a problem.

Mike Lowell had hip surgery to repair a bone spur and shave fragments off his
hip, while also repairing a torn labrum. It's the same surgery that Chase Utley
underwent in the offseason and Alex Rodriguez is trying to avoid. He has looked
fantastic in spring training and has cleared every hurdle without a problem, so
there might not be anything to be worried about. I'm not sold. The older you
get, the easier it is to break down. Plus, a torn labrum in your hip is not
something to sneeze at. It's especially imperative Lowell stay healthy, thanks
to poor depth behind him. The backups at third include Kevin Youkilis and Jed
Lowrie, although Lowrie will serve at short while Julio Lugo recovers.

Speaking of Lugo, he missed the second half of 2008 with a torn hamstring. This
spring, he underwent arthroscopic surgery on his right knee, taking him out of
the shortstop competition, at least initially. When he returns, he'll see a lot
of time at short, but only due to Jed Lowrie being the backup at second and
short. If Lugo is lost, despite his poor overall numbers, it will be a blow to
the depth of the Red Sox at middle infield. It would certainly necessitate a
long-term acquisition. While the Sox have some emergency depth options in Nick
Green, Angel Chavez, Ivan Ochoa and Gil Velazquez, none of the four should be
relied upon the entire year.

Other names that are important:

David Ortiz is reportedly at full health as well, much like Lowell. The
"clicking" in his wrist that concerned him last year is gone and there have
been absolutely no indications of any setbacks. What puts at him less of a risk
than Lowell is Ortiz's showing in the WBC, his position as designated hitter,
and his surgery, which is further behind in the rearview mirror than Lowell's.

Jason Varitekza—he slid off a cliff in terms of offensive contributions. When
(if?) will he start breaking down like many other aging catchers?

J.D. Drew—since when is he not an injury concern?

Jonathan Papelbon is an interesting name. He has been relatively overworked as
a closer and complained of fatigue gassing him out in 2008. Of course, he was
shut down in September 2006 due to shoulder issues, so the situation bears
watching.

The Red Sox have plenty of question marks surrounding their team. No, it's not
as old or at cause for concern like the Yankees, but they're certainly at risk
of their season falling apart, more so than most teams. The heath of this club
will be paramount. (As is true of any other team, but the risk factor involved
with the Red Sox here is greater.)



Can Josh Beckett and Jon Lester be aces 1A and 1B?

For all of the Red Sox's newfound depth in the rotation—Beckett, Lester,
Daisuke Matsuzaka, Tim Wakefield, Brad Penny, John Smoltz, Clay Buchholz,
Michael Bowden, Justin Masterson and more—the key to the season rests in the
top two starters pitching to their potential. In a competitive division,
Beckett and Lester will be relied up to be the two stoppers to carry them deep
into October.

Beckett, 29 and entering his last guaranteed year (the Sox hold an option for
2010), was the talk of baseball two years ago and would have won the Cy Young
if postseason performance had been factored in. After going 20-7 with a 3.27
ERA in 200.2 innings, he was looked on to carry the Sox in 2008. That didn't
work out so well as he had a brief DL stint in the middle of the year and could
never consistently get his game down. He ended at 12-10 with a 4.03 ERA in
174.1 innings.

So can he be the 2007 version? Absolutely—he was the 2007 version in 2008. It
just didn't show. He actually pitched better in 2008 than 2007 by the xFIP
measurement—a 3.35 xFIP as opposed to 3.56. His K/9, BB/9 and K/BB were all
better than 2007. His HR/9 went up slightly, but was still fourth-best in his
career. What was his issue, then? For one, BABIP reared its head as Beckett
posted a .327 BABIP, up from .316. Kind of scary to think the numbers Beckett
can/could put up with a normalized BABIP of .300. In addition, his strand rate
decreased from 75.2 to 71.3. He gave up a ton more line drives in 2008 than
2007, which is directly related to his higher ERA.

A line drive percentage of 25.2 percent a year after a 15.8 percent (career:
19.4) at the expense of ground balls (47.3 percent down to 40.8 percent) will
undoubtedly harm a pitcher. With all of Beckett's peripherals strong, an
inflated BABIP and a unsustainable spike in line drive percentage, not only is
Beckett not a concern for the Sox, but he's got to be considered one of the top
three candidates to win the Cy.

As for Lester, last year at the halfway mark saw a full year elapse between his
chemotherapy and recovery. Doctors all along had told him it would take a full
year to recover, and that manifested itself as Lester got stronger as the
season went on. Seemingly established as a 90-92 mph pitcher, he spiked up to
93-96 with his fastball after the half and all but abandoned his slider (15.9
percent thrown in 2006, 0.2 percent in 2008) in favor of his developing cutter,
which is now one of the better cutters in the game that can saw off a bat.

Hurling 210.1 innings, he posted a 3.21 ERA that may be unsustainable—his FIP
was 3.72 and xFIP 4.19, but certainly not cause for alarm. Now that his health
is in full force, many assume he will establish himself as a top-tier pitcher.
This is certainly possible and everything is trending positively, but there is
one glaring red mark: his innings pitched jump. I addressed this earlier in the
offseason:


Lester pitched 26.2 innings in the postseason for a sum of 237 total innings in
2008, a 45 percent jump from 2007 when he pitched a cumulative 163 innings.

The Verducci Effect calls for a significant risk of injury for young pitchers
who experience of jump of 30 or more innings in their previous two seasons.
Considering Lester jumped 74 innings, this makes him a prime candidate for
injury.

How worried should we be? A 45 percent jump in innings is rather drastic, but
Lester may be the exception to the norm.


He may be the exception due to his recovery from cancer, but there's no denying
the very real concern that he will tire earlier in the season or sustain an
injury. This is the only red flag hovering over Lester; past that he should
serve as a fine pitcher for the Sox, another with a strong playoff pedigree
(2-2, 2.25 ERA, pitched the winning World Series game in 2007).

While most of the Sox's pitching questions are mitigated by depth, it's
imperative that Beckett and Lester continue to be the frontmen for the
rotation. Matsuzaka is best utilized as a three due to his wildness, Wakefield
is a solid No. 4 and nothing more, and the jury is out on the rest. Beckett
should be a lock to dominate, while Lester should continue to trend well albeit
with the specter of a 45 percent increase in innings hanging over him.



Lugo or Lowrie?

In 2004 and 2005, Julio Lugo posted 20 and 24 Win Shares, respectively. He was
one of the better shortstops in the game over that time period, with his value
in his speed (39 stolen bases in 2005) and doubles power (41 doubles in 2004).
He slumped to 12 WS in 2006 and posted a meager one win share for the Los
Angeles Dodgers after being traded at the deadline. Lugo also had superior
range, grabbing 53 balls out of his range in 2004 and 70 in 2005. He had a
propensity to throw the ball away, as he posted 16 throwing errors against nine
fielding errors in 2004. That number improved somewhat to 12/12 in 2005.

Lugo was able to live up to his defensive hype in 2007 for the Sox, posting a
55 OOZ and a 8 TE/11 FE line for errors. Unfortunately, that's all he'd live up
to as he posted a meager 1 WS and a .237/.294/.349 line on the season. Given
his post-All-Star .280/.322/.406 there was reason for optimism entering 2008.
Indeed, his batting average "rebounded" and he posted a .268/.355/.330 line.
Taking out for the moment the poor slugging, the batting average and OBP were
certainly numbers the Sox could live with. What couldn't they live with? Well,
the slugging for one. His nine throwing errors, seven fielding errors in 671
innings when the year previous he had eight throwing errors and 11 fielding
errors in 1,228 innings. He was able to get to 23 balls out of his zone, so he
still at least retained his range. That's about it, though. He then tore his
hamstring in mid-July and that was that.

Taking Lugo's place was Jed Lowrie, who ended the season in an 8-for-51 skid
due to a small fracture in his wrist all season long that went unnoticed. As
the season wore on and he lost power in the wrist, he became a liability. With
that in mind, his overall .258/.339/.400 line is impressive. Indeed, if you
throw out his September, Lowrie posted a season line of .278/.341/.439. That's
'04-'05 Lugo-esque. He also impressed scouts and players alike with his
surprising effectiveness in the field after getting a rap as a poor fielder. He
made 14 OOZ at short in 386 innings. Extrapolate that to 1,228 innings (Lugo's
innings played in 2007) and you get 45 Out of Zone plays (Lugo had 55).

Why, then, was Lugo set to be the starter before he was felled by injury? (He
will return one-to-two weeks into the season.) The Red Sox did not want to move
Lugo around the diamond and risk him being discontented while Lowrie had recent
experience playing second and third. Thus, while Lowrie was still going to see
a lot of playing time at short, the Sox were going to be able to technically
anoint Lugo as the starting shortstop. That's changed now and Lowrie will open
the season at short. When Lugo returns, he will have every opportunity to play
himself into a full-time gig, but the leg up Lowrie will have by then may prove
impossible to overcome.

Lowrie is the future for the Sox and unless Lugo can get off to a hot start,
the pressure will be too great to keep running Lugo out there like he was in
2007 and 2008. Considering a lot of teams will be looking to dump salary at the
deadline and Lugo's contract will (surprisingly) be one of the more palatable
ones (that just goes to show how bad the pacts to Juan Pierre and Gary Matthews
Jr. are) that the Sox may be able to dump Lugo off on a desperate team looking
to move one of their own hefty contracts that the Sox have a need for.




How can the offense be sustained?

One of the bigger concerns for the Sox this year is offense. With Manny Ramirez
off in the west, there is no clear legitimate big-bopper in the lineup apart
from David Ortiz. Oh sure, Kevin Youkilis and Jason Bay had strong seasons, but
who's to say last year wasn't a career year for Youkilis? Until he can repeat
those numbers, he's far from a sure thing. Jason Bay, aside from 2007, has
always been a 30-homer bat but isn't the pure power bat that the Sox need to
survive.

The Red Sox offense has gone a long way from the bruising 2003 lineup to the
solid 2009 group. As the club has shifted more emphasis to defense, the lineup
has begun to thin out. Despite ranking third in runs scored in all of baseball
last year, there is significant liability in the lineup.

The leadoff position belongs to Jacoby Ellsbury. Mired in a deep slump for most
of the year, Ellsbury has to show he can turn on the inside fastball and better
his .336 OBP. Ortiz will man the No. 3 spot, and despite no indications he is
hobbled by the injury that plagued him in 2008, he is becoming increasingly
prone to injuries and it's anyone's guess if he can turn in the 40-homer season
the Sox need from him. Youkilis, as previously mentioned, may be a flash in the
pan and could return to his good, not great, ways. Drew has not exactly tore
the American League up with his bat. Aside from a torrid run against National
League pitching in 2007 and an awe-inspiring June in 2008, he has been nothing
more than standard fare. Jed Lowrie has great promise, but it's just that at
the moment: promise. And Jason Varitek is clearly declining. While he showed
encouraging power in spring training, the Sox will be fortunate to squeeze a
.240 season out of him.

The one saving grace is that the Sox have the budget and the wherewithal to
acquire a bat during the season if needed. With the economy the way it is, the
teams that find themselves out of the race in July will scramble to dump their
higher-priced hitters. For example, if Oakland fizzles out, Matt Holliday will
almost certainly be traded. If Milwaukee has a terrible season, the team may
dangle Prince Fielder.

The list goes on. Most of the big-market teams, not just the Red Sox, have
angled themselves to have the financial flexibility to bring in another player
while those that are looking to clear their red ink are hoping to get off to a
fast start and get fannies in the seats.

The offense will not be among the best of the best, but they'll certainly be
good enough to rank in the top 10 in the league, if not top five. Really, it
all comes back to David Ortiz regaining his power stroke. As much as I hate to
rely on spring training numbers, Ortiz's .556 slugging percentage and three
home runs in 36 at-bats allay my worries. Youkilis, on the other hand, is
hitting .185/.290/.296 in 27 at-bats. Not the greatest way to prove your
doubters wrong.




Did the Yankees' offseason vault them past the Sox?

No. Unequivocally no.

The Yankees went home with 89 wins and faced a tall task trying to stay up with
the two teams that finished ahead of them: teams that had a productive minor
league pipeline with one of those teams commanding a big market advantage. They
had to do something, and three major free agent signings later, they did.

Was it enough to put them as heavy favorites?

No.

Look, CC Sabathia is heads and tails better than Mike Mussina ever was, but
Moose went 20-9 with a 3.37 ERA and 132 ERA+ and since CC's career average in
the AL is a 3.82 ERA and 116 ERA+ (3.22 in his two previous full years in the
American League from 2006-7, 142 ERA+) I'm going out on a rather sturdy limb
and saying that Sabathia will replace Moose's production, maybe a win or two
more. But that's it.

Teixeira is better than Jason Giambi was, but take Giambi plus Bobby Abreu and
I'm thinking Teixeira replaces their production, with a bit of an extra boost
for defense and overall package coming out of one body, not two. As for
Burnett, the dude breaks down pretty much every year, and while last year he
saw a full, healthy year, his 4.07 ERA won't cut it as a No. 2 in the AL East.
To me, compared to last year's team, the Yankees essentially only brought in
the production of AJ Burnett, and I'm not seeing much more than a 1-3 win
increase for them. Plus, they have way too many injury/age issues—far more
than the Red Sox, so to me, all this offseason did was restock their team to
continue their push for a division. It didn't just hand it outright to them,
and of all the three teams in the hunt for the playoffs in the division, the
Yankees are the ones with the most warts, issues and question marks.

Oh, and losing A-Rod until at least mid-May (and if Ken Rosenthal is to be
believed, most of the year) isn't going to help, is it? Not with Cody Ransom at
third. And don't believe the hype around Ransom—the same hype that surrounded
Miguel Cairo becoming their "star" first baseman. I remember Yankee fans
talking him up and then a couple months later he was released. Facts are facts:
Ransom doesn't even count as a band-aid across the wound.

No, the more pressing question is: did the Rays' offseason vault them past the
Sox? Or to be more factually accurate, did their offseason keep them ahead of
the Sox? By bringing in Brian Shouse and Pat Burrell, they certainly didn't
hurt themselves. As a matter of fact, they improved themselves.

But the Rays have to answer these questions: can they avoid a "sophomore
slump," even if that slump consists of 3-5 fewer wins? Will the Rays grow to
regret having David Price start in Triple-A? Little known fact: games in April
count just the same in the standings as games in September. Do the Red Sox's
impossibly long depth in pitching, best bullpen in the game on paper and
competent offense present a tougher challenge than the Sox of last year? All
the answers aren't clear yet, except the last one, which is a resounding yes.

If the Red Sox don't make the postseason, it will only be because injuries
decimated this team and saw their luck go horribly, horribly wrong. As is,
they're one of the best teams positioned for success: deep pitching,
flexibility to bring in answers to questions yet to be asked, enough depth to
sustain the inevitable cluster of injuries.

These are certainly not your 2001 Red Sox.




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