Fangraphs Top 15 prospect - 美國職棒

The Boston Red Sox top prospects list has undergone an upheaval over last
season’s like no other. Only one player in the Top 10 (Ryan Lavarnway)
appeared on the list a year ago, which accounts for an unprecedented amount
of movement. The list lost just one prospect to graduation (Josh Reddick)
while the other eight players either lost value or were surpassed by more
promising talent. The good news for the system is that it still has a fair
bit of depth and some of the players who stumbled in 2011 could rebuild their
prospect value in ’12.

1. Xander Bogaerts, 3B/SS
BORN: Dec. 1, 1992
EXPERIENCE: 2 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2009 international free agent
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: Off

SCOUTING REPORT: Given his young age, Bogaerts’ season was a massive
success. He displayed an advanced approach that should lead to him hitting
for average down the line and he has good bat speed, which generates
above-average power. Defensively he plays a solid shortstop but he’s
expected to slow down and shift over to third base before he reaches the
Majors. An interesting side note: Bogaerts’ twin Jair Bogaert spent 2011
playing for Boston Dominican Summer League team (He hit .288 in 47 games).

YEAR IN REVIEW: Bogaerts played the 2011 season in low-A ball at the age of
18 – although he spent the first half of the year in extended spring
training. He showed uncanny power for his age with an ISO rate of .249, as
well as impressive patience (8.4 BB%). He still has rough edges in his game
and struggles with breaking balls, which helped lead to a strikeout rate of
24%.

YEAR AHEAD: The infielder could spend 2012 in high-A ball as a teenager, if
Boston wants to continue to be aggressive with him. He’ll look to curb his
strikeouts while ironing out the rough edges in his game. If he keeps up this
pace Bogaerts could be playing in the Majors by the time he’s 21 years old.

CAREER OUTLOOK: Bogaerts has the potential to develop into a
middle-of-the-order threat with 30+ home runs a possibility. He should remain
on the left side of the infield but it probably won’t be at shortstop. The
Aruba native will be a fun prospect to watch in 2012 and I imagine Boston
considers him virtually untouchable.

2. Will Middlebrooks, 3B
BORN: Sept. 9, 1988
EXPERIENCE: 4 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2007 5th round, Texas HS
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: Off

SCOUTING REPORT: Middlebrook entered 2011 as a sleeper and he exited the
season as a top prospect. He began his pro career a little behind the eight
ball because he was such a good pitcher in high school, as well as a talented
football player. Now that he’s had time to acclimatize himself, Middlebrooks
shows the ability to hit for both average and power, although his pitch
selection and overall aggressiveness need work. Defensively, he’s a good
fielder and has a strong arm.

YEAR IN REVIEW: The third baseman spent the year in double-A and hit .302
while also showing increased power with an ISO rate of .218. On the downside,
his strikeouts remained high (24%) and his walk rate tied his career low mark
of 5.3%. After slugging 23 home runs during the regular season he added four
more in the Arizona Fall League (56 at-bats), although he hit just .250 and
again struggled with Ks.

YEAR AHEAD: Middlebrooks received a brief taste – 56 at-bats – of triple-A
in 2011 and he’ll return there in 2012. He could spend the entire year there
with an eye on replacing the aging Kevin Youkilis for the ’13 season.

CAREER OUTLOOK: The former fifth-round pick looks like he’ll develop into at
least an average offensive third baseman. If he can trim his strikeouts and
maintain the increased power output then he has a chance to be an all-star at
the hot corner.

3. Garin Cecchini, 3B
BORN: April 20, 1991
EXPERIENCE: 1 season
ACQUIRED: 2010 4th round, Louisiana HS
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: Off

SCOUTING REPORT: If you consider that Xander Bogaerts is likely headed for
the hot corner down the road, Boston’s Top 3 prospects are all future third
basemen. Cecchini displays an advanced approach for his age and projects to
hit for both average and power. He also shows a solid defensive game at
third. He likely would have been a first rounder in ’10 if he had not blown
out his knee in high school, requiring major surgery. Cecchini’s younger
brother Gavin Cecchini, a prep shortstop, could be a first round draft pick
in 2012.

YEAR IN REVIEW: Playing against older competition in the New York Penn
League, Cecchini more than held his own in 2011. He hit .298 and displayed
gap power that resulted in 12 doubles and three homers in just 114 at-bats.
He also walked just shy of 13% of the time – and struck out only 14% of the
time.

YEAR AHEAD: Cecchini will most certainly move up to low-A in 2012 and could
hit his way to high-A by mid-season. There is no reason for the organization
to put any undue pressure on him , though, with fellow third base prospect
Will Middlebrooks at triple-A.

CAREER OUTLOOK: When all is said and done, Cecchini could end up as a better
third baseman than Middlebrooks, although both have considerable talent. The
younger prospect still has a long way to climb, though, despite his
impressive start to his pro career.

4. Blake Swihart, C
BORN: April 3, 1992
EXPERIENCE: 1 season
ACQUIRED: 2011 1st round (26th overall), New Mexico HS
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: NA

SCOUTING REPORT: Signed away from the University of Texas for $2.5 million,
Swihart is a promising offensive catcher in the Wil Myers mold. Like the top
Royals prospect, this New Mexico native could move much more quickly through
the system if he were to be moved to another position. Swihart shows promise
behind the plate, thanks to his athleticism, but he’s only been catching for
a few years – and rarely on a full-time basis. He’s a switch-hitter that
shows above-average power and even the potential to hit for average.

YEAR IN REVIEW: Swihart received just six Rookie ball at-bats after signing
and failed to record his first pro hit.

YEAR AHEAD: The catcher will likely stick in extended spring training to work
on both his defense and his offense. Like catching, he’s fairly new to
switch-hitting. If he remains behind the dish, Swihart will probably need
four to five seasons in the minors.

CAREER OUTLOOK: Swihart has the potential to develop into an all-star
catcher. He’ll obviously lose a little bit of value if he moves to third
base or right field but his bat has a chance to be special. With no clear cut
‘catcher of the future’ in the system, Boston will be patient.

5. Matt Barnes, RHP
BORN: June 17, 1990
EXPERIENCE: College
ACQUIRED: 2011 1st round (19th overall), U of Connecticut
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: NA

SCOUTING REPORT: There was some talk that Barnes could potentially be popped
in the Top 10 during the 2011 draft so Boston was no doubt happy to land the
Connecticut native with the 19th overall selection. The right-hander has a
good pitcher’s frame with room to fill out even more. His fastball currently
ranges from 91-97 mph and he also possesses a curveball, cutter and changeup.

YEAR IN REVIEW: Barnes did not pitch after signing. He had an outstanding
junior year of college and pitched 116.2 innings, giving up just 71 hits and
four home runs. His ERA dropped significantly over the past three seasons
from 5.43 to 3.92 to 1.70.

YEAR AHEAD: Even though he has yet to pitch in a pro game, Barnes has shown
enough to potential to begin 2012 in high-A ball. If his secondary stuff
continues to develop he could reach the Majors within two to three years.

CAREER OUTLOOK: Barnes has the necessary ingredients to be a No. 2 or 3
starter at the Major League level. Once he firms up one of his secondary
pitches into a plus pitch – most likely his curveball – he could really
take off.

6. Anthony Ranaudo, RHP
BORN: Sept. 9, 1989
EXPERIENCE: 1 season
ACQUIRED: 2010 supplemental 1st round, Louisiana State U
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: Off

SCOUTING REPORT: Ranaudo’s 2011 performance received mixed reviews. His
numbers were solid but scouts were less enamored with him than expected. The
right-hander struggled with injuries in college – including a stress
fracture in his throwing elbow – and his stuff was not as good in his first
pro season as it was in college. When he’s going well, Ranaudo throws 90-95
mph with a plus curveball and changeup. He fought his mechanics and command
in his first pro season.

YEAR IN REVIEW: The right-hander began the year in low-A ball but was moved
up to high-A after just 46 innings. Ranaudo pitched 81 innings at the senior
level but he allowed two more hits per nine innings and his strikeout rate
dropped from 9.78 to 7.44 K/9.

YEAR AHEAD: Ranaudo did not exactly dominate high-A ball but his FIP was
decent at 3.95 (4.33 ERA) so he will probably open 2012 in double-A. He could
spend the entire season there unless he suddenly becomes more consistent and
his pitches become more crisp.

CAREER OUTLOOK: Even if he doesn’t become the No. 2 pitcher that some people
predict, Ranaudo has the strong frame necessary to become a workhorse in the
rotation as a No. 3 or 4 pitcher – assuming his elbow holds up. My gut
feeling is that he’ll have a good – but not great – career in Boston.

7. Jackie Bradley, OF
BORN: April 19, 1990
EXPERIENCE: 1 season
ACQUIRED: 2011 supplemental 1st round, South Carolina
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: NA

SCOUTING REPORT: With four selections before the second round during the 2011
draft, the Boston Red Sox organization acquired a lot of exciting talent and
Bradley could end up being a true steal as the 40th overall pick. He slid
after struggling on offense early in the college season and then he had wrist
surgery. The South Carolina native is a plus defender with a plus arm.
Although he’s struggled with his consistency as a hitter, Bradley has good
bat speed and did not strike out much in his college career.

YEAR IN REVIEW: Bradley was healthy enough to play 10 pro games after signing
with Boston, topping out at low-A Greenville. After hitting .368/.473/.587 in
his sophomore season, the outfielder slumped to .247/.346/.432 in his junior
year.

YEAR AHEAD: Bradley will probably open 2012 in low-A ball while working on
becoming more consistent with the bat. If he can stay within himself and
acknowledge his own strengths and weaknesses then he could see a lot of
success and even reach high-A at some point in the year. Bradley should focus
on the skills necessary to be a two-hole hitter.

CAREER OUTLOOK: At worst, Bradley should be an outstanding fourth outfielder
or second-division starter. Because he brings so much to the table and has a
lot of drive I fully expect him to get the most out of his abilities and
improve significantly with the bat.

8. Ryan Lavarnway, C
BORN: Aug. 7, 1987
EXPERIENCE: 4 seas0ns
ACQUIRED: 2008 6th round, Yale University
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: 10th

SCOUTING REPORT: Lavarnway doesn’t have quite the offensive potential that
New York’s Jesus Montero does but he’s in a similar situation as an
offensive-minded catcher who may or may not be able to stick at the position.
He’s shown enough defensively, though, to at least provide back-up duties at
the position while also playing first base or acting as the DH. You can’t
argue with Lavarnway’s offense. He hits for a solid average and has
above-average power all over the field. He is not your typical grip-and-rip
power hitter and is a smart baseball player (He’s a Yale Alum).

YEAR IN REVIEW: The catcher slugged 34 home runs over three levels (AA, AAA,
MLB) in 2011 and hit .290 at the minor league level. He showed a patient
approach (12.1 BB% at AAA) and struck out at a reasonable (but not great)
rate for a power hitter. Lavarnway threw out 37% of base stealers while
squatting behind the plate in the minors.

YEAR AHEAD: Lavarnway is probably ready for The Show but the return of DH
David Ortiz could throw a wrench into the works. The catcher may have to bide
his time at triple-A until an injury occurs to Ortiz or starting catcher
Jarrod Saltalamacchia. The club will want to carry a stronger defender as the
back-up catcher, which is why veteran Kelly Shoppach was brought back.

CAREER OUTLOOK: Lavarnway has the potential to be a better offensive player
than Saltalamacchia but he may not be any better defensively. It’s possible
that he could end up replacing Ortiz as the full-time DH in 2013 but, either
way, he should be an above-average hitter with 20+ home run potential.

9. Henry Owens, LHP
BORN: July 21, 1992
EXPERIENCE: Prep
ACQUIRED: 2011 supplemental 1st round, California HS
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: NA

SCOUTING REPORT: Owens is a tall (6’6”) left-hander that could possibly add
velocity as he matures but he currently pitches in the 87-91 mph range,
occasionally brushing the mid-90s when he reaches back for a little extra.
With pro coaching, though, I expect him to explode and eventually work in the
mid-90s on a consistent basis; he has a promising delivery and decent command
for his age. Owens’ repertoire also includes a curveball, cutter and
changeup.

YEAR IN REVIEW: Owens did not pitch after signing.

YEAR AHEAD: The southpaw will likely be assigned to Rookie ball after
spending the first half of the season in extended spring training looking to
get stronger and sharpen his secondary pitches.

CAREER OUTLOOK: Owens’ future outlook hinges on the development of his
fastball. If he can consistent work in the low-to-mid-90s than he should
become at least a No. 3 starter. If he pitches more in the 87-91 mph range
than he’s likely to be more of a No. 4-5 starter – unless he develops a
couple of other plus pitches. Either way, he should be able to provide lots
of innings.

10. Brandon Jacobs, OF
BORN: Dec. 8, 1990
EXPERIENCE: 3 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2009 10th round, Georgia HS
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: Off

SCOUTING REPORT: A $750,000 bonus helped sway Jacobs from playing college
football at Auburn University. After three years the move is starting to look
like a smart one. A raw baseball player when he entered pro ball, Jacobs
began to breakout in 2011 and should continue to do so in ’12. He has very
good power, thanks to his above-average bat speed and strong frame, and
should hit for a decent average as long as he can avoid becoming too pull
happy. Jacobs doesn’t have much speed and he has a below-average arm so he’
s limited to left field.

YEAR IN REVIEW: Jacobs hit .303 at low-A ball in 2011 but he was aided but an
unsustainable BABIP of .381. Even so, he made strides with his stroke. His
raw power continues to translate better into game situations and his ISO rose
from .169 in ’10 to .201 in ’11. He slugged 32 doubles and 17 home runs in
442 at-bats. Jacobs still has work to do with breaking balls and he needs to
tone down his two-strike approach; his strikeout rate sat at 24.5%.

YEAR AHEAD: The former football player will move up to high-A in 2012. If he
gets off to a fast start he could see time in double-A. The organization has
decent outfield depth at the upper levels so there is no need to rush Jacobs.

CAREER OUTLOOK: Jacobs has the potential to be an average to above-average
offensive left fielder if he can maintain a decent batting average. He has
20-30 home run power, which is good because all his value is tied up in his
bat. The biggest obstacle to Jacobs’ big league aspiration is Carl Crawford
and his bloated contract, which is currently clogging the drain at the MLB
level. The best scenario for Boston would be to have Crawford rebound, making
Jacobs an attractive trade piece.

THE NEXT FIVE

11. Jose Iglesias, SS: Iglesias, the organization’s No. 1 prospect last
year, slid quite a bit over the past season – in part due to added depth and
partially because he was over-matched at triple-A. His wOBA of .260 was
unexpectedly poor, even for those he see him as a glove-first utility player
at the MLB level. Despite his offensive struggles Iglesias still made his MLB
debut in 2011 and he continued to display plus defensive skills. Unless he
makes some adjustments, the Cuba native could be headed for a career similar
to Cesar Izturis.

12. Bryce Brentz, OF: As a college player (and 22 years old), Brentz was a
little too advanced for his initial assignment to low-A ball in 2011 and he
beat up on the opposition – .359 average, .288 ISO- which led to a promotion
to high-A. Brentz still hit well in Salem but showed more holes in his game,
including his strikeout rate, which rose from 20% in low-A to 25%. He has the
arm strength necessary to play right field.

13. Kolbrin Vitek, 3B/OF: Vitek continues to have potential but he made 28
errors at the hot corner in 2011 and hit just three home runs. His future at
third base is murky at best. The club needs to move him to the outfield
sooner rather than later, which will hopefully jump start his offense. With
average-at-best power, Vitek needs to hit for a high average to have
offensive value because he doesn’t run much, either, despite having
above-average speed underway.

14. Junichi Tazawa, RHP: Tell me if you’ve heard this one before: A Japanese
pitcher comes to North America and gets hurt… Tazawa had Tommy John surgery
in early 2010 but made it back to pitch late in ’11. He showed better stuff
upon his return from surgery so there is hope that his ceiling will continue
to rise. As a smaller right-hander he’s probably best suited for a bullpen
role but he could develop into a set-up man with a four-pitch repertoire
(fastball, slider, splitter, curve).

15. Miles Head, 3B: Signed away from the University of Georgia for $335,000,
Head is a favorite of mine. A prep third baseman, lack of range and foot work
forced him over to first base where he faces an uphill climb given the
offensive expectations that come with the position. He dominated low-A in
2011, earning a mid-season promotion to high-A where he was good, but not
great.

SLEEPER ALERT: Jose Vinicio, SS: Iglesias is the better known shortstop in
the system but Vinicio has potential as well. He played part of the ’11
season in rookie ball at the age of 17 after making his North American debut
at 16. He’s clearly still growing and maturing as a baseball player but he
hit .291 last year – and even showed glimpses of solid line-drive power.
Vinicio is overly aggressive at the plate (3.6 BB%) but he has (raw) speed
and the chance to become a special defender.

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