Fangraphs Red Sox Top 15 Prospects (2012-13)3 - 美國職棒

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#11 Drake Britton (P)
Age G GS IP H HR K/9 BB/9 ERA FIP
23 26 24 129.2 128 8 8.19 3.96 4.44 3.62
Opening Day Age: 23
2012 Level: A+/AA
Acquired: 2007 draft (23rd round)
Projected 2013 Level: AA/AAA

Britton has had an up-and-down career since signing out of a Texas high school
back in 2007, which also included Tommy John surgery in 2008. He entered the
2011 season as one of Boston’s most promising pitching prospects but had a
complete meltdown in high-A ball. He rebounded in 2012 – despite a slow
start – and made 16 encouraging starts in double-A.

A scout I spoke with said the Tommy John surgery that Britton had definitely
slowed his progress. “I believe that the further away he gets from the surgery,
the better he becomes… Consistency with his stuff in the zone is the main
thing he has to improve to become a successful major leaguer. The stuff is
there and it’s all plus… This type of left-handed arm just doesn’t fall
off many trees.” Britton’s repertoire includes a low-to-mid-90s fastball,
curveball and changeup. I watched the southpaw pitch and he had a thicker
lower half that hinted at strong legs – a necessity for any pitcher – but
he didn’t have the smoothest delivery. He also struggled to keep his shoulder
closed from the stretch.

Because of his past struggles, the organization may choose to be cautious with
Britton and send him back to double-A to begin 2013 but a strong spring
training could vault him to triple-A. He has the ceiling of a No. 3 or 4
starter but could also end up in the bullpen if consistency continues to elude
him.


#12 Bryce Brentz (OF)
Age PA H 2B HR BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG wOBA
23 589 156 31 19 46 153 9 .292 .351 .464 .365
Opening Day Age: 24
2012 Level: AA/AAA
Acquired: 2010 draft (36th overall)
Projected 2013 Level: AAA

He hasn’t shown it in his professional numbers to date – in terms of massive
home run numbers – but Brentz possesses impressive raw power and could be
Boston’s right-fielder of the (near) future. A scout I spoke with said,
“Bryce has an extremely fast barrel and is capable of getting to his power
anywhere in the zone.” Like most power hitters, though, the former
supplemental first round pick strikes out a lot but his aggressive nature also
leads to modest walk rates. The scout I spoke with said Brentz was always a
competitive player. “This is an area where his competitiveness maybe working
against him. He – like a lot of young players – has to learn to control his
effort level and that it is OK to take a walk sometimes.”

Brentz is a decent hitter who is not a dead pull hitter but he still struggles
with breaking balls. His batting averages in the minors have been buoyed by
high – and likely unsustainable – BABIP rates; when he reaches the majors
expect his average to be more in the .250-.270 range.

He’s not a great runner and his speed is slightly below average so his range
in the outfield will be a tick below average. His plus arm strength makes up
for any inadequacies in the field. As one scout put it, “He was able to throw
94 off the mound (as an amateur). Whenever he threw from the outfield it was
a very playable arm, capable of fitting a right-field profile. (The) strongest
amateur arm I ever saw was Jeff Franceour but Bryce was second.”

A former two-way player in college, Brentz was a little behind the eight ball
when he entered pro ball but has now had to opportunity to focus on full-time
hitting for the past three seasons. He’ll likely open 2013 at triple-A
Pawtucket but could reach the majors at some point during the second half of
the season.

Additional Notes

When Bryce Brentz posts a BABIP of .370+, prospect followers get excited and
forget he strikes out more than 25% of the time. Having seen Brentz in 2011,
I saw him as more of a second division starter who may struggle to break
through in Boston where success is expected immediately. I’m a bit more
confident in his abilities now that his numbers have maintained at the upper
levels. (Mike Newman)


#13 Brandon Jacobs (OF)
Age PA H 2B HR BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG wOBA
21 487 110 30 13 39 128 17 .252 .322 .410 .330
Opening Day Age: 22
2012 Level: A+
Acquired: 2009 draft (10th round)
Projected 2013 Level: AA

Jacobs appeared at No. 10 on my Red Sox Top 15 prospect list last year but a
disappointing season in high-A ball dragged him down to the No. 13 slot this
year. Despite his obvious struggles and step backward in 2012 he still
managed to provide league-average offense. A contact I spoke with felt the
prospect’s season was not that bad. “He was coming off a good year (in 2011)
… He was in a less friendly hitting environment… and he maybe tried to do
too much,” he said. “It was a learning experience for him… Has some work
to do on his mechanics.”

I watched Jacobs play earlier this year and noted that he holds his hands very
high and has a noisy load. He looked like he was swinging around the ball
instead of keeping his hands inside the ball with a short swing path. When
he’s going well, the former prep star shows impressive raw power and base
running aptitude. His strikeout rates will probably always keep him from
hitting for a high average but he could be a 20-15 (home runs-steals) player
at the big league level, although he’s not a pure base stealer by any means.
Jacobs has played both left and center field in pro ball but the talent
evaluator I spoke with felt his best position would probably be left field
because of his modest arm strength and solid range.

He should move up to double-A in 2013 at the age of 22. If he can continue to
tighten up his pitch recognition and approach at the plate, Jacobs could be a
solid big league contributor as early as mid-2014.

Additional Notes

Entering 2012, Jacobs was ranked in every major top-100 and deservedly so.
With reports of a hamate injury slowing him down for much of the season, he
might deserve a mulligan. However, prospect lists simply don’t work that way,
so Jacobs takes a big hit. A rebound in 2013 has him back in the top five.
Being that Jacobs made such huge strides in 2011, I wouldn’t bet against
him. (Mike Newman)


#14 Anthony Ranaudo (P)
Age G GS IP H HR K/9 BB/9 ERA FIP
22 9 9 37.2 41 4 6.45 6.45 6.69 5.54
Opening Day Age: 23
2012 Level: AA
Acquired: 2010 draft (39th overall)
Projected 2013 Level: AA/AAA

Not only is Ranaudo one of the most enigmatic prospects in the Red Sox system,
he might be one of the biggest head-scratchers in professional baseball. He
looked like a sure-fire first round draft pick after his sophomore season of
college before suffering a stress fracture in his elbow. Boston still took
him with the 39th selection of the 2010 draft and handed him more than $2.5
million based on past performances and scouting reports.

A contact I spoke with said,”We had a good process on Anthony’s medical
history and we knew there was risk involved in regards to his elbow, but were
confident with a conservative approach to his developmental path he would get
healthy and on track… The elbow has been sound but the pulled groin coming
out of spring training really set him back.” Ranaudo made only six starts in
2012, all at the double-A level. The good news, though, is that he’s pitching
in the Puerto Rico winter league and reportedly flashed very good stuff in his
debut.

Ranaudo is a monster of a man, standing 6’7” and weighing about 230 lbs so
he should be able to provide a good number of innings if his elbow and
shoulder hold up. If not, though, perhaps a future as a high leverage
reliever. Both his fastball and curveball have the chance to be plus pitches
while a scout I spoke with suggested a future grade of 55 (slightly above
average) on his changeup.

People familiar with Ranaudo believe he’ll overcome all the adversity he’s
faced to this point in his pitching career. The contact I spoke with said,
“If you talk with anyone with the Red Sox Anthony is one of those unique
young men who has plus-plus make-up. He has faced a lot of adversity thus far
but it hasn’t changed his approach or commitment level. Hopefully he will
have a great off season and be heathy coming into 2013.” If he can stay on
the mound and continue to show the stuff he’s flashed this winter, Ranaudo
could reach triple-A in 2013 and possibly the majors in 2014.

Additional Notes

In 2011, contacts kept telling me the same thing in regards to Ranaudo. He
profiles as a durable, mid-rotation starter, but why the two-plus million
dollar signing bonus? After a 2012 which saw Ranaudo post a 6.45 BB/9 in
Double-A, those contacts were proven correct for the moment. (Mike Newman)


#15 Mookie Betts (2B)
Age PA H 2B HR BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG wOBA
19 292 67 8 0 32 30 20 .267 .352 .307 .322
Opening Day Age: 20
2012 Level: A-
Acquired: 2011 draft (5th round)
Projected 2013 Level: A

The 15th slot on the list came down to a few names and I eventually settled
on Betts, who narrowly edged out 2012 draftee and right-handed prep hurler Ty
Buttrey. The diminutive second baseman spend 2012 playing at the age of 19
against much older competition in the New York Penn League. He understands
his game, and his limitations, and focuses on controlling the strike zone,
getting on base and using his legs. He’s working to become a steady defender
at second base.

In 2012, Betts walked more than he struck out – and impressive feat for his
age and experience level – and also stole 20 bases in 24 attempts. A talent
evaluator I spoke with assessed the prospect: “He has a very advanced feel
for the zone and always seems to be in control of his at-bats. He has good
speed, instincts, and athleticism.” At 5’9” with a slender frame, he needs
to get stronger so he’s not over-matched at higher levels. His month-by-month
splits suggest that he wore down as the season progressed despite playing in
short-season ball.

The contact I spoke with about Betts agreed that the prospect has work to do.
“As with all high school players, he needs to get stronger and continue to
get at-bats… He just needs to keep playing baseball and developing in the
field and at the plate.” The Tennessee native should move up to full season
A-ball in 2013 for the first time in his career and should move fairly
methodically through the system.

His overally package of tools is probably not a threat to incumbent second
baseman Dustin Pedroia and the infield glut of prospects – which is a great
‘problem’ for Boston to have – could push the youngster to a utlity role
if he can diversify his defensive abilities and isn’t used as future trade
bait.

Additional Notes

Betts is an athletic second baseman with gap power and strong contact skills.
Unfortunately, his arm will keep him out of the shortstop picture which hurts
his value. I like Betts as a sleeper, but would probably have Vinicio ranked
here instead. He’s younger, just as athletic and profiles as a true shortstop.
(Mike Newman)

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