Dave Cameron(FanGraphs)評Gomes - 美國職棒

Red Sox Replace Carl Crawford with Polar Opposite╴╴╴
by Dave Cameron - November 21, 2012

http://0rz.tw/8EN6q

After years of having Manny Ramirez and then Jason Bay patrol left field in
front of the Green Monster, the Red Sox made a dramatic change in course in
2011 by bringing in Carl Crawford. Instead of using the position to get
another bat-first, hide-the-women-and-children defender into the line-up, the
Sox opted for speed and defense instead. Crawford, of course, was a disaster,
and the Red Sox took advantage of an opportunity to rid themselves of the
remainder of his contract by shipping him to Los Angeles in August.

紅襪以前使用Manny Ramirez和Jason Bay鎮守綠色怪物前方─直到2011年球季才改變方針
使用尻佛，從使用守備爛的強打者變成快腿防守者。但尻佛是一場噩夢，好不容易在2012
年八月找到機會排毒。

With their new found savings creating a hole in left field, the Red Sox have
reportedly decided to go back to the old left field plan, and are nearing a
two year contract with right handed slugger Jonny Gomes. Given that they
already re-signed David Ortiz, DH is not open in Boston, so Gomes’ playing
time is going to have to come in left field. And that makes this signing
pretty interesting.

節省支出之下造就了左外野的空缺，而日前紅襪決定使用老計畫，用兩年約簽下右打大棒
Jonny Gomes。

而紅襪已經簽下老爹，DH這個位置娜不出來，所以勢必要讓Gomes鎮守左外野─這讓整件
事情變的很有趣。

Because he spent 2009-2011 in the National League — 2 1/2 years with the
Reds, half a season as a National — he’s played a decent amount of outfield
during his career. However, he’s never been a regular OF in the American
League, because AL teams have the ability to DH guys like Gomes, and both of
his previous AL employers have taken advantage of that option.

因為Gomes在2009-2011年間都在國聯(1.5年在紅人，0.5年在國民)，所以守外野的經歷
不算少。不過，他在美聯從沒當過固定的外野手，因為美聯球隊可以他能來當DH使用。
先前的兩支美聯母隊都這麼做。

With Tampa Bay from 2003-2008, he made 227 of his 354 starts — 64% — at DH.
Last year with the A’s, he started 46 of 74 games — 62% — at DH. In five
full seasons in the AL, Gomes has never started more than 50 games in the
outfield in a single year. Even in the NL, when the DH wasn’t an option,
Gomes only averaged 88 starts per year in the outfield. Put simply, no one
has ever looked at Jonny Gomes as a regular option in the OF, because,
frankly, he’s terrible out there.

在光芒(魔鬼魚)的2003-2008年間，354場先發中有227場(64%)當DH；去年在綠帽的74場先
發中則有46場(72%)打DH。在美聯的五個完整出賽球季中，先發守外野單季都不超過50場。
就算在國聯，Gomes也只有88%的場次擔任先發外野手。簡單來說，沒人將Gomes視為正規
的外野手，因為他的防守很糟。

In 3,500 career innings in the outfield, he’s posted a UZR of -37, which
translates out to -13 runs per full season. DRS rates him even worse, coming
in at -50, as does Sean Smith‘s Total Zone. Gomes is basically as bad as an
outfielder can possibly be while still being considered a passable part-time
player at the position.

生涯守外野的3500局，UZR是糟糕的-37，每季多掉13分。DRS(defensive runs saved)更
糟，-50。Gomes的守備幾乎到達外野手最糟的程度，但拿來當兼差的外野手的話還OK。

Defensively, Gomes is basically Manny Ramirez. But, of course, the Red Sox
have already seen Manny Ramirez play left field in Fenway Park, and while it
was painful to watch, they also won a couple of World Series titles with him
in left field. Bad outfield defense isn’t, in and of itself, a deal breaker,
and there’s an argument to be made that sticking a horrendous defender in
front of the Green Monster allows you to hide his deficiencies, since the
proximity of the wall to the plate means that there’s just less ground to
cover.

防守方面Gomes跟Manny Ramirez差不多。當然大家都看過Manny守左外野的樣子，雖然
看了很痛苦，但還是照拿兩個冠軍。糟糕的外野防守並不是阻礙這筆交易的最大重點，
而且有些人認為綠色怪物可以保護糟糕防守者的缺點，因為要守的範圍變小。

With a two year deal for Gomes, the Red Sox are set to test that theory once
again. While he’s almost certainly not going to be an everyday player for
Boston, he had enough leverage as a free agent to ensure that he’s going to
be in the mix for fairly regular playing time, perhaps in some kind of 50/50
job share with Ryan Kalish if the Sox go on to acquire a full-time right
fielder later in the off-season. Or, if not with Kalish, some other
left-handed outfielder, because there’s no real way the Sox can view Gomes
as a regular against right-handed pitching.

接下來的兩年紅襪打算使用以上的理論。雖然幾乎確定他不會每天都先發，但他將有很大
機會爭取固定的上場時間─如果紅襪買下一位全職RF，Gomes可能會和Kalish平分上場時
間。就算不是Kalish，也會有一位左打用來對決右投─因為沒辦法整季都用Gomes打右投。

Here are Gomes’ career splits:

以下是數據：

Vs PA BA OBP SLG wOBA wRC+
LHP 1,100 0.284 0.382 0.512 0.385 140
RHP 1,962 0.222 0.307 0.424 0.318 93

If there’s such a thing as a lefty masher, it’s Jonny Gomes. The sample
sizes with platoon splits aren’t large enough where you should just take the
un-regressed numbers at face value, but even regressing them 50% back towards
league average, you’re still left with something like a .360/.330 split.
And, given how bad Gomes is defensively, a .330 wOBA against right-handers
makes him essentially a replacement level outfielder against right-handers.

如果要打左投，當然是Gomes。或許樣本數不夠多，應該看未經過迴歸分析的數字，但就
算用迴歸分析過後，wOBA還是會得出差距相當大的.360/.330。因為他的防守很差，而且
對決右投只有.330 wOBA─這讓他對決右投時會變成路人等級的外野手。

Gomes can thump lefties well enough to be valuable in the 150 to 200 plate
appearances per year he can rack up against them, but against righties, there
’s not much of a benefit to having him in the line-up. Realistically, he’s
best served as a pinch-hitter coming off the bench for when the right-handed
starter is replaced by a left-handed reliever, but it seems unlikely that
Gomes secured a two year deal from Boston to be a bench player on days a
right-hander takes the mound, which is about 75% of the time in Major League
Baseball.

Gomes棒打左投的能力在150~200PA中足以顯現價值，但是對右投的話，Gomes在打線中沒
有多少價值。所以對方是右投先發的話他適合當板凳球員，拿來打左手牛，但是這兩年約
並不像是要拿來買一位打右投時蹲板凳的球員─大概會有75%的比賽會對到先發右投。

So, given the fact that Gomes signed with Boston and got a two year deal, I
think we have to assume he’s going to get some starts against right-handers,
and because of Ortiz’s presence, he’s going to get those starts in left
field. And that brings us back to the question of whether the Green Monster
can really hide the defensive deficiencies of a guy who can’t run. There is
no question that it’s a smaller area in terms of square footage than most
left fields, but there’s still an equal amount of lateral distance between
the left fielder and center fielder in Boston as there is in any other
stadium in America. The Monster might reduce the amount of times Gomes has to
charge forward on a blooper since he doesn’t have to worry about as many
balls being hit over his head, but he still has to run side to side to get
balls down the line or in the gap. Less space doesn’t equal no space.

因為Gomes已經簽下去了，兩年約，所以我們假設他會面對先發右投；而且因為老爹的關
係，他得站左外野。這又回到綠色怪物能不能保護一位跑不起來的外野手─的確守備面積
變小，但是橫向距離跟中外野差不多─或許能減少球飛過頭頂的疑慮，但是會增加球落在
左中外野間的機會。小面積不代表不用守備。

And, of course, the Red Sox play 81 games on the road. We can’t simply take
a -15 defender, put him in Boston, and assume he’s suddenly going to be
league average. It’s possible that he might be a bit less harmful in home
games, but we’re probably talking about an adjustment from -15 to -10. And
that’s assuming that Gomes hasn’t gotten worse with age.

還有，我們有81場客場。我們不能假設這位-15等級的防守者突然變成聯盟水準─或許明
年能因為主場的關係上修到-10，可以減輕傷害。也或許我們少考慮了年齡的因素。

Maybe when the terms of the deal come out, we’ll find out that Gomes only
got a few million dollars and agreed to a job as a platoon player because he
just really likes New England and wanted to be closer to the intellectuals at
Harvard and MIT. It’s Jonny Gomes, though, so I’ll file that as unlikely.
If the Red Sox signed him to be a fairly regular left fielder, my guess is
this isn’t going to work out so great.

(本文時在簽約金出來前寫的，前半段主旨是說不定他拿很少錢，然後喜歡NE地區才過來)

(雖然不大可能)

如果紅襪要讓Gomes當固定先發左外野手，我認為效果沒那麼好。

It’s one thing to live with lousy defense when you’re getting Manny Ramirez
’s bat into the line-up. It’s another thing to make that trade-off to get
Jonny Gomes’ bat in the line-up. Gomes is a nice role player and a useful
part-time hitter against southpaws, but asking him to be more than that looks
like an overextension of his skills. We’ll have to wait and see how he ends
up fitting into the Red Sox final roster, but let’s just say that I’m not
convinced that the Sox have really replaced Carl Crawford just yet.

如果棒子跟Manny Ramirez一樣猛的話，防守爛還勉強接受；但是Gomes不一樣，他是個很
好的角色型球員，是個能對抗左投的優良兼差型打者─除此之外難以要求什麼更多的技巧
。我們在往後才能知道紅襪的陣容如何，但截至目前為止我不認為紅襪找到填補尻佛位置
的球員。

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