BP Top 10 Prospects - 美國職棒

1. A.J. Puk, LHP

The Good: An at-bat against Puk looks like a genuinely terrifying event for a
hitter, regardless of handedness. His fastball is a legitimate plus-plus
weapon in the making, a slice of mid-90s cheddar that can climb as high as 99
with explosive finishing action through the zone. The slider isn’t far
behind, either. He generates enormous extension with a slingshot arm action,
hiding the ball well behind his massive frame as he comes to slot. The
combination makes his ball look like it’s coming out about 45 feet from
home. Even if he never gains an ounce of additional consistency with his
mechanics he has the raw stuff to dominate in high-leverage situations in a
big-league bullpen on the sooner side of later.

The Bad: Projecting any semblance of command consistency is best left to the
shruggy emoticon guy. Puk is a long dude, and he’s not the most fluid or
athletic of hurlers, despite some elasticity in his movement. He struggles,
mightily at times, to streamline his delivery and control the baseball. His
timing to slot varies wildly from pitch to pitch, and that’s just always
going to be a limiting factor for him. There’s a Randy Johnson-style “maybe
it’ll all just eventually work out” vibe to him. The change will flash
utility as a third pitch, but it’s a ways off from getting there on the
regular, though it’s unclear it’ll ever really have to.

The Role:

OFP 70—No. 2 Starter or Elite Closer

Likely 60—Maddening No. 3 Starter or late-inning reliever with flashes of
brilliance but loads of walks

The Risks: There’s more volatility here than your standard sixth overall
pick who’s already demonstrated the ability to blow away hitters at
Double-A, as we’re just going to have to wait and see if the raw stuff is
enough to overcome what are likely to be ever-persistent command issues. It’
s entirely possible it will be, in which case you’ll be able to build a
rotation around him. —Wilson Karaman


3. Jorge Mateo, SS

The Good: Well, he finally made it out of A-ball, and he even hit a little!
After a stagnant performance in 2016, 2017 finally gave way to a midseason
promotion. The hottest month of Mateo’s life led to him being the top chip
the Yankees flipped in the Sonny Gray deal. The raw power, which was always
existent but limited to 5 PM, even showed up for the last two months of the
season. Oh yeah, and he’s still one of the fastest players in organized
baseball, and isn’t a disaster at short, second, or center.

The Bad: You still can’t steal first, and Mateo’s on-base skills are
constantly coming into question. His Double-A line, while still a vast
improvement on prior years, got a lot more Mateo-like after the trade, with
the on-base percentage taking a relative nose dive and the power being more
triples-driven than before. In short, he’s probably still Jorge Mateo,
questions about the stick and all. He’s going to hit a lot of triples in the
majors as a gap-power player with high-end 80-grade speed, but seven per
month isn’t going to be repeatable. If he can’t continue to hit for a
premium average, his value at the plate drops precipitously because his
approach won’t allow him to get on-base and use his legs otherwise. His
speed projects him out to be a good fielder eventually, but we can’t quite
guarantee where yet; my best guess would be in center, which the Yankees
started exposing him to last spring. He’s probably older than you think—
2017 was his age-22 season—because he percolated in A-ball for so long.
Reports of bad makeup, off-the-field issues, and lackadaisical play on the
field have followed him for years now, and were at least partially confirmed
by a 2016 suspension and various Yankees personnel that were unusually frank
on the record about such things.

The Role:

OFP 60—First-division regular somewhere on the dirt or in the middle of the
grass

Likely 50—Regular center fielder


The Risks: Outside of a major injury or off-field problem, there’s actually
way lower risk than you’d think for a dude who might get the bat blown out
of his hands against high-level pitching. At worst, his speed and
multipositional ability should make him an incredibly useful bench
player/fill-in regular, Alexi Amarista with more speed and pop. And that’s
an unusually high reasonable floor. —Jarrett Seidler



5. Dustin Fowler, OF

The Good: One of the few prospects in baseball who is truly average-or-better
at everything we measure. His realistic projection isn’t nearly as good as
that sounds, because most of it is just average, but you can make a lot of
money playing baseball with a bunch of 5s, 55s, and 6s on your scouting
report. He hits for average! He hits for surprisingly virile pop! He runs
well down the line and translates it well to the bases! He fields all three
outfield positions well! He even throws! There isn’t much to complain about
here except that he’s not great at any one thing, which limits the upside
some. He got constant Brett Gardner comps in the Yankees system due to
organization and look, but it’s one of the rare comps of that type that
accurately reflects the sort of player Fowler might become.

The Bad: Fowler likely wouldn’t be prospect-eligible or a member of this
system but for a catastrophic knee injury suffered in his MLB debut in June
2017. In an instant, he went from the front of the line of the bumper crop of
hitting prospects, getting the first shot to establish himself in the majors,
to the back of the line behind a better prospect like Clint Frazier. Prior to
the injury, there were still lingering concerns that he’d get tweenered as a
player just slightly short of bat to be a corner regular and just slightly
short of glove to be a regular in center, and the injury could amplify that
possibility. He’s also never walked quite as much as you’d hope given the
rest of the profile.

The Role:

OFP 60—Versatile starting outfielder

Likely 45—A nifty fourth outfielder who can be the long side of a platoon

The Risks: While Fowler’s open patella tendon rupture was as brutal looking
an injury as you’ll see and there was initial concern it might seriously
impact his career trajectory, as of last reports the A’s expect him to be
ready to compete for a starting outfield spot in spring training. Permanent
loss of a tick or two on the stopwatch would be a substantial hit to the
offensive and defensive profiles as they’ve shown up to here, although he
has the raw talent to make a profile adjustment into more of a corner power
player.



6. Austin Beck, OF

The Good: Beck has tools to spare. There’s easy plus-plus raw here at
present and possibly more to come as his upper body fills out. The ball
absolutely jumps off his bat. It makes the sound. It’s a great baseball
body. He’s a plus runner with a plus arm. There is star upside if the whole
package comes together.

The Bad: Beck is so raw he is featured in Sushi Jiro Gastronomy. He may not
hit enough to get the prodigious raw pop into play. He may not hit at all. He
’s got the physical tools for center field for now but will likely slide to
a corner as he ages.

The Role:

OFP 60—First division right fielder
Likely 45—Fringy corner masher

The Risks: Very high. The tools are loud, but Beck is very raw as a baseball
player and a lot can go wrong in the four years or so it will take him to get
to the majors.

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