BP Team Health Reports - 美國職棒

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=4818


● C Kenji Johjima
We don't know Johjima's history very well, so we don't have much to
go on here. He was relatively healthy in Japan, despite being used
heavily. He broke his tibia late last season on a foul tip, though
that shouldn't be an issue anymore.


● 1B Richie Sexson
Sexson's 156 games played in 2005 (with a .276 ISO) suggests that
his shoulder subluxation has fully healed.


● 2B Jose Lopez


● 3B Adrian Beltre
This is a bad, bad contract ($47,000,000 remaining over the next
four years, plus whatever is deferred on the $7,000,000 signing bonus),
but it's not bad for health reasons. Beltre's little hamstring problem
last year isn't going to trigger a THR warning light.


● SS Yuniesky Betancourt
Young shortstops have a tendency to get small injuries and wear down.
It's a taxing position for anyone, but especially for someone new to
the Majors.


● LF Raul Ibanez


● CF Jeremy Reed


● RF Ichiro Suzuki


● DH Carl Everett
This yellow is for Everett the outfielder, not Everett the DH. Not
having to play the field should lower his risk profile significantly.


● SUB Matt Lawton
We hate playing the innuendo game but we'd be negligent if we didn't
point out that he tested positive for steroids last year. Lawton admitted
to taking the veterinary steroid boldenone in an effort to help recover
from a nagging leg problem. We don't see a DL risk here.


● SP Felix Hernandez
We certainly hope that Felix Hernandez is the next great pitcher, w
hether that's Mark Fidrych, Dwight Gooden, or someone with less in the
way of supernova stylings, but Hernandez remains (like all young pitchers)
as likely to end up injured as he is to end up on an All-Star team.

It doesn't help that he's been babied or that he had his slider taken
away (a move that only makes sense if that pitch was seen to be worse
than the others, something not seen in either gold standard studies or
in the films of Hernandez). His mechanics remain both violent and
off-balance: his head whiplashes forward and his hat is projected
forward as fast as the ball on occasions.

The problem with a pitcher this good and this flawed is that by
reducing a flaw, we don't know if we decrease injury risk significantly,
but we know that we often reduce effectiveness. The pitching coach's job
is to balance the two, adjusting here and there to reduce injury risk and
increase effectiveness. We have no good measures of that, so we'll sit
back and watch and hope and pray that Hernandez is more the next Carlos
Zambrano than the next Ryan Anderson.


● SP Jamie Moyer
Pitchers this age are either special, about to fall apart, or they're
knuckleballers. With his fastball you might say that Moyer is actually
more "knuckler" than "special."


● SP Jarrod Washburn
In our database we have two players who have broken their scapula (the
big plate-shaped bone in your upper back). One, Kurt Ainsworth, looked
awful in 2004, missed all of 2005, and got a charity invite to Dodgers
camp this year. This from a guy who was once one of the top prospects
in baseball.

Washburn wasn't quite that badly messed up by his fracture, but it's
clear that the stud pitcher from 2001 and 2002 is gone. His 3.20 ERA
from last year is misleading (based on his peripherals, his ERA should
have been 4.61).


● SP Joel Pineiro
He had an ulnar collateral ligament problem in 2004, but the shoulder
issues from 2005 are cause for more concern. His velocity was off, his
control was horrible, and his numbers were the worst of his career. He
still has a year left on his 3-year, $14,500,000 deal (and a year of
arbitration eligibility) and we're betting that they don't go well.


● SP Gil Meche
Years of shoulder problems will get you a red light every time.


● CL Eddie Guardado
If Guardado's knee is finally healthy, then it should help him speed
up his delivery and take stress off the shoulder.


投手一個個亮紅燈是怎樣…

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