Athlon Baseball 2009 Preview - 美國職棒

2009 Boston Red Sox Preview


The Red Sox slipped only a little in 2008, reaching Game 7 of the ALCS after
entering the year as defending World Series champions. But even if the Sox hold
their ground again in 2009, others appear to have gained on them. Though Boston
returns virtually the entire roster from a team that has been the class of the
AL over the last two years, it failed in its pursuit of No. 1 offseason target
Mark Teixeira, who signed with the rival Yankees. Nonetheless, Boston still
looks like a contender in 2009, thanks largely to a solid nucleus and
productive farm system that has provided good balance and depth throughout the
organization.



Rotation

Assuming Josh Beckett will remain in good health, Boston will boast a young and
deep group of starting pitchers. Beckett, who was bothered by nagging injuries
throughout last year, will be backed by Jon Lester, Daisuke Matsuzaka and Tim
Wakefield, and the Red Sox agreed to terms with righthanders Brad Penny and
John Smoltz to add some veteran depth. Smoltz is battling back from shoulder
surgery last summer; the Sox might not have his services until June. The team
still has prospects Clay Buchholz and Michael Bowden, among others, and
righthander Justin Masterson could also start. Thanks largely to the emergence
of Lester, Red Sox starters finished last season with a 4.02 ERA that was
third-best in the AL. This remains the strength of the club.



Bullpen

Beyond closer Jonathan Papelbon, manager Terry Francona experienced some
difficulty trying to find consistency from his relievers during the first half
of last season. That all changed when Masterson joined the group. In the final
two months, with Masterson serving as a primary setup man for Papelbon, the
Boston bullpen stabilized and pitched quite well. During the offseason, the Sox
further fortified the relief corps by adding righthanders Takashi Saito and
Ramon Ramirez. They join a group that also includes righthander Manny Delcarmen
as well as lefties Hideki Okajima and Javier Lopez, giving Francona one of the
deepest and most balanced bullpens in baseball. At least on paper.



Middle infield

One year after winning the 2007 AL Rookie of the Year Award, second baseman
Dustin Pedroia claimed the AL MVP award. The Sox subsequently signed Pedroia to
a six-year, $40.5 million contract with a club option that could keep him with
the team through 2015. For all the stability that Pedroia has given the Red Sox
at second base, shortstop remains a major question. Julio Lugo has two years
remaining on a four-year, $36 million contract.



Corners

The big question concerns the health of third baseman Mike Lowell, who
underwent offseason hip surgery and has two years remaining on a three-year,
$37.5 million deal. Lowell’s recovery appears to be coming along quite well,
but the Sox seemed fully prepared to trade him if they had been able to sign
Teixeira. Had that happened, third base would have belonged to Kevin Youkilis,
who has evolved into one of the best corner men in the game. Despite moving
between first and third last year, Youkilis was one of the most productive
players in baseball, finishing third in the AL MVP balloting. If Lowell proves
to be healthy, the Red Sox are in very good shape at first and third —
offensively and defensively. Both Youkilis and Lowell own Gold Gloves.



Outfield

In the recent history of the Red Sox, there is a clear delineation — Before
Manny and After Manny. The Sox traded Manny Ramirez last July 31 in the deal
that brought Jason Bay to Boston, a trade that had ripple effects throughout
the team’s lineup. Bay performed quite well during his two months in Boston,
but the Sox nonetheless chased Teixeira during the winter. Because of the Crisp
trade, too, there is no uncertainty with regard to the Boston outfield: Bay
will be in left, Jacoby Ellsbury in center and J.D. Drew in right. The Sox
signed Rocco Baldelli from Tampa Bay to add some depth, given Drew’s injury
history and the inconsistency of Ellsbury, who batted .240 during a three-month
stretch in the middle of last season. Defensively, this group can cover ground
and is quite good.



Catching

For much of the past decade, the Red Sox have benefited from having one of the
best two-way catchers in the game in the switch-hitting Jason Varitek. In 2008,
however, Varitek’s offense slipped badly, and the Sox dropped to near the
bottom of the league in offensive production from their catchers. The team
signed Josh Bard to a major league contract to backup the cagey veteran.
Unproven minor leaguers Dusty Brown and George Kottaras also remain options.



DH/Bench

Losing Ramirez was damaging enough to the Boston lineup, but a wrist injury to
David Ortiz also hurt the 2008 club significantly. Ortiz never needed surgery
and returned to the team for the final two months, but there is some concern in
the Boston organization that Ortiz never will revisit the glory years of
2003-07, when he was one of the most feared hitters in baseball. That fact,
too, inspired the pursuit of Teixeira. The Sox bolstered their bench in January
by adding Rocco Baldelli and re-signing Mark Kotsay.



Management

Over the last several years, there have been few management teams as successful
and shrewd as the Red Sox. As a big market team, Boston has the resources to
spend with the big boys. Nonetheless, the Red Sox have emphasized the draft and
player development since GM



Final analysis

Red Sox fans are optimistic after their team reached Game 7 of the ALCS, but
here’s the question: If the Sox are so good, why was their management so
concerned about improving the offense? This team is still a contender, to be
sure, and the Red Sox have enough talent, youth, experience, pitching and money
to make a run at any team in baseball. Still, the lineup looked
uncharacteristically soft at the end of last season, and no one should be
surprised if the 2009 Sox have difficulty scoring runs. Tampa Bay is now a
legitimate threat and the Yankees have rebuilt their starting rotation, meaning
the Red Sox will face improved pitching on a regular basis. If the lineup is
indeed weaker, that could put an awful lot of pressure on the pitching staff.



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Statistician


37 >> Runs batted in by newcomer Jason Bay in 49 games with the Red Sox.


.195 >> Batting average of shortstop Jed Lowrie in his final 35 games. Lowrie
had 42 strikeouts and 24 hits over the span of 147 plate appearances.


3 >> Players in Red Sox history to have stolen as many as 50 bases in one
season, a group that includes Tommy Harper (54 in 1973), Tris Speaker
(52 in 1912) and Jacoby Ellsbury (50 in 2008).


.650 >> Combined OPS of all Red Sox catchers last season, a number that placed
13th among AL clubs in terms of offensive productivity at the position.
Only the Yankees finished behind Boston.


85 >> Errors committed by the Red Sox last season, third-fewest in the AL
behind only the Yankees and Blue Jays. Over the last two years, no AL
team has made fewer errors than the Red Sox.


46 >> Runs scored by the Red Sox in 11 games last postseason, an average of
4.2 per contest that was significantly lower than the 5.2 the Red Sox
averaged during the regular season.



Difference Maker

The Red Sox made a spirited bid to sign free agent Mark Teixeira over the
winter, suggesting that the team has major questions about the production from
the middle of the order. Had the Sox acquired Teixeira, Mike Lowell probably
would have been the odd man out. Now, the Sox will be forced to rely heavily on
the veteran third baseman. Lowell is hoping to bounce back from offseason hip
surgery. If he can return to his 2007 form (.324, 120 RBIs) it would go a long
way toward improving the Boston offense.



Beyond the Boxscore


The man in the corner office When Terry Francona completed the 2008 season, he
joined an elite group of three Red Sox managers to have managed at least five
full seasons consecutively with the organization. Prior to Francona, the last
Red Sox manager to accomplish the feat was Joe Cronin, who managed from 1935-47.


Bay watch Acquired from the Pittsburgh Pirates in the three-way trade that sent
Manny Ramirez to the Los Angeles Dodgers, outfielder Jason Bay is eligible for
free agency at the end of the 2009 season. The Red Sox have expressed a desire
to talk about an extension with Bay, who turned 30 in September.


What a run During the tenure of general manager Theo Epstein (2003-present),
the Red Sox have scored 5,352 runs, more than any team in baseball. During that
span, the Red Sox have won two World Series and played in four League
Championship Series, each the most in baseball.


Close, but no cigar After winning the AL Gold Glove at first base in 2007,
Kevin Youkilis failed to repeat in 2008 — but he came awfully close. Despite
shuttling between first base and third, Youkilis finished second in the AL
balloting at first base, losing out to Tampa Bay’s Carlos Peña.


Standing room only Late last season, the Red Sox established a new major league
record for consecutive home sellouts, breaking the mark of 455 once held by the
Cleveland Indians. Entering the 2009 season, the Red Sox home sellout streak
stands at 469 — and counting.


Little big man After winning the 2007 AL Rookie of the Year Award, second
baseman Dustin Pedroia won the 2008 AL MVP. Pedroia also was one of three AL
players to win both the Silver Slugger and Gold Glove at his position, joining
Minnesota’s Joe Mauer and Cleveland’s Grady Sizemore.



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Farm System


2008 Top Draft Pick — The Red Sox have built one of the most productive minor
league systems in baseball in recent years by drafting well and stockpiling
talent, adding shortstop Casey Kelly to the mix last June. Boston chose Kelly,
who had signed a football scholarship to play quarterback at Tennessee, with
the 30th overall selection and signed him in time to participate in both the
Gulf Coast League and New York-Penn League. After a slow start in the GCL,
where he batted just .173 in 27 games, Kelly sizzled in nine games for the
Class-A Lowell Spinners, batting .344 with a .906 OPS. The 19-year-old native
of Sarasota is expected to start this year in Class-A.


2007 Top Pick — Nick Hagadone, LHP, University of Washington

Had elbow surgery after only three starts in ’08, but should be back late in ’
09.


2006 Top Pick — Jason Place, OF, Wren (S.C.) High School

Hit .246 with 19 HRs and 65 RBIs in Class-A California League.


2005 Top Pick — Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, Oregon State

Everyday centerfielder finished third in 2008 AL Rookie of the Year balloting.


2004 Top Pick — Dustin Pedroia, IF, Arizona State

Already a star; named 2007 AL Rookie of the Year and 2008 AL MVP.


2003 Top Pick — David Murphy, OF, Baylor

Dealt to Texas in Eric Gagne trade; batted .275 with 15 HRs and 74 RBIs in 108
games for the Rangers.



Other Prospects (age on Opening Day)


RHP Michael Bowden (22)

The sandwich first-round pick in 2005 went 9–4 with 2.33 ERA in 19 starts at
Double-A Portland.


RHP Daniel Bard (23)

Future closer went 4–1 with a 1.99 ERA, seven saves and 64 strikeouts in 49.2
innings in Double-A.


1B Lars Anderson (21)

Former California high schooler hit .316 with .962 OPS in first 41 games of
Double-A career.


OF Ryan Kalish (21)

Leadoff-type athlete stole 18 bases in the South Atlantic League last year.


SS Yamaico Navarro (21)

Finished last season on a tear, hitting .348 in 42 games in High-A ball.


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Here are some of their predictions:


Lindy's

AL East Other Playoff Teams

Yankees Twins
RedSox (wc) Angels
Rays Phillies
Blue Jays Cubs
Orioles Dodgers
Marlins (wc)


AL Pennant: Yankees

NL Pennant: Cubs

MVPs: Mark Teixeira, Hanley Ramirez

CYs: Jon Lester, Cole Hamels



Athlon

AL East Other Playoff Teams

Red Sox Twins
Yankees (wc) Angels
Rays Phillies
Blue Jays Cubs
Orioles Diamondbacks
Mets (wc)


ALCS: Red Sox over Yankees

NLCS: Phillies over Mets

WS: Red Sox over Phillies

MVPs: Alex Rodriguez, Hanley Ramirez

CYs: Jonathan Papelon, Johan Santana



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