控球好壞 - 美國職棒

我們常聽到球評們說 某選手保送很多 控球不好...
的確 BB%跟控球有很大的關係 但 BB%低就表示控球好?
像Silva就會把球丟向紅中 然後就... BB%當然不會高
另一種說法是看K/BB 但 對於某些沒stuff的選手 K%自然也高不起來

讓我們一球球來看 投手投出的球主要分成以下六類
Ball iBall ClStr SwStr Foul InPly

要如何形成保送?
Ans:要壞球 而且要"累積"四個壞球
對於像Silva這種InPly%高的選手 球不容易留在本壘板 自然K BB都不會高
在這裡我們可以想到 InPly不應該被視為一般的"好球"
而應該把它看成一個PA的結束
在球數落後的情況下 連BB爺的打擊成績也不怎樣
一個能在球數領先的情形下跟打者對決的投手 就是"控球好"的投手
PS:球數領先是指球數為(0-1 1-1 0-2 1-2 2-2)的時候
我們可以簡單用比例 (ClStr%+SwStr%+Foul%)/Ball% 來當作指標

取該年投球數前70多的美聯投手當作各隊輪值 排序如下:
08 AL
1 2 3 4 5
1 Baker Danks Shields Burnett Dickey
2 Lee Lackey Guthrie Galarraga Washburn
3 Slowey Millwood Rasner Garland Burres
4 Vazquez Byrd Padilla Liriano L.Hernandez
5 Sabathia Wakefield Buchholz Silva Olson
6 Harden Perkins Garza Robertson Smith
7 Mussina Duchscherer Litsch Blanton Harrison
8 E.Santana Hernandez Sowers Jackson Liz
9 Halladay Greinke Verlander Contreras Laffey
10 Beckett Meche Marcum Davies Feldman
11 Sonnanstine Buehrle Floyd 王建民 Rogers
12 Blackburn Lester Bannister Hochevar Eveland
13 Weaver小 Pettitte McGowan Carmona Cabrera
14 Kazmir Bedard 松坂大輔 Saunders Batista

AL top 15% avg. 1.46 代表:Vazquez(1.43)
AL average 1.19 代表:Padilla
AL bottom 15% avg. 0.99 代表:Feldman
冠軍 Baker 1.61 事實上這也是近三年來AL最佳成績
對決時球數領先打者比率:Baker(62%) Beckett(56.7%)
Weaver小(57.0%,uBB%=6.71) Kazmir(57.3%,uBB%=10.61) Danks(60.0%,uBB%=6.97)
Wakefield(56.9%,uBB%=7.96) Lester(55.0%) 松坂大輔(53.2%,uBB%=13)
Garland(51.5%) Silva(52.4%) 王建民(46%) Cabrera(44.8%)
Papelbon(64.5%) M.Rivera(64.5%)

07 AL
1 2 3 4 5
1 J.Santana Weaver大 Buehrle Pettitte Burres
2 Baker Hernandez Wakefield Hammel Gaudin
3 Schilling 松坂大輔 Carmona Washburn Clemens
4 Byrd Lackey Guthrie E.Santana Batista
5 Beckett Bonderman Silva Contreras Durbin
6 Towers Blanton Bonser Westbrook DiNardo
7 Sonnanstine Verlander Robertson McCarthy Litsch
8 Sabathia Colon Bannister Tejeda 王建民
9 Bedard Weaver小 Burnett Loe Tavarez
10 Vazquez Lee Garland Saunders Cabrera
11 Kazmir Meche Marcum Jackson Ramirez
12 Halladay Garza Danks Padilla Trachsel
13 Shields Escobar McGowan Oda.Perez Kennedy
14 Mussina Haren Millwood De La Rosa Maroth

08 NL
1 2 3 4 5
1 Nolasco Myers Backe Oli.Perez Zambrano
2 Oswalt Peavy Wolf Kershaw Zito
3 R.Johnson Owings 黒田博樹 Lowe Duke
4 Hamels Maddux Volquez Redding Hampton
5 Sabathia Jo.Johnson Jurrjens Francis Marquis
6 Lilly 白嗟承 J.Sanchez De La Rosa Lannan
7 J.Santana Billingsley Martinez Wainwright Eaton
8 Haren Young Snell Penny Morton
9 Harang Maine Arroyo Blanton Pelfrey
10 Cain Pineiro Bergmann Volstad D.Davis
11 Sheets Moehler Cook Jo.Reyes A.Miller
12 Campillo Cueto Maholm Moyer Kendrick
13 Lincecum Dempster Hudson Jimenez Balester
14 Olsen Webb Lohse Hendrickson Suppan
15 Wolf Wellemeyer Looper Parra Gorzelanny
16 Rodriguez Oda.Perez Bush Correia Chacon

07 NL
1 2 3 4 5
1 Hamels Penny Rodriguez Germano Marquis
2 Smoltz Arroyo Hudson Kendrick Vargas
3 Harang Gallardo Hirsh Suppan Cook
4 Oswalt Maine Carlyle Wainwright Moyer
5 Lilly Cain Mitre Jimenez O.Hernandez
6 R.Hill Owings Capuano Zito Billingsley
7 Peavy Oli.Perez Francis Duke Willis
8 Maddux Lincecum Zambrano Sampson B.Thompson
9 Young Hendrickson S.Hill Maholm 金炳賢
10 Sheets W.Williams Sosa Lowry Bacsik
11 D.Wells A.Reyes Marshall Jennings Looper
12 Bush Lohse Gorzelanny Redding Fogg
13 Snell Morris Eaton K.Wells D.Davis
14 Webb Bergmann Albers Chico Davies
15 Belisle Vanden Hurk Olsen Armas L.Hernandez
16 James Wolf Lowe Tomko Glavine

--