2018 in Review: Tzu-Wei Lin - 美國職棒

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原文請見以下連結：
https://www.overthemonster.com/2018/11/28/18114130/2018-red-sox-tzu-wei-lin

2018 in Review: Tzu-Wei Lin

A look back at a solid year for the depth piece.
By Matt_Collins@MattRyCollins Nov 28, 2018, 10:30am EST

The Season in a Sentence

Tzu-Wei Lin was far from the most important player on the 2018 Red Sox,
but his presence of depth was always important and he played well in the
major-league chances he did get.

賽季總結

對2018的紅襪來說，林子偉與成為紅襪的重要成員還有很長的距離。但他的存在對
陣容深度的重要性無庸置疑，並在有限的大聯盟出賽中有不錯的表現。

The Positives
好的部分

Just by looking at Lin and knowing that he is mostly an up-the-middle
player, there are some assumptions one could reasonably make about his game.
Given his smaller stature and thinner frame, it’s expected that he is more
of a defense and speed oriented player who could single his way to a solid
batting line. That’s not unfair, and has mostly been him over his career.
However, he showed some unprecedented pop both in the majors and in Triple-A
in 2018.

當你看著林子偉而且知道他是一個中線球員時，人們很容易就產生一些想像。身高不高
及偏瘦的體型，似乎意味著他是防守及速度型的球員，然後能打一些短程的安打。這種
預期是不公平的，雖然他之前生涯似乎就是這個樣子。在2018年，他在大聯盟及3A的賽
場上取得了巨大的進步。

Coming off his 2017 breakout, he showed even more improvement by
posting a .141 Isolated Power in 302 Triple-A plate appearances and a .169
ISO in 73 major-league plate appearances. Now, those numbers don’t really
jump off the page, particularly in the modern launch angle era of the game,
but context matters. Prior to 2018, Lin had only posted an ISO over .100
once in his six professional seasons, and that came in a 184-plate
appearances stint at Double-A last year. This was a different kind of Lin
that stuck around pretty much all year, and it was nice to see.

在他2017年的蛻變中，林子偉在3A的302個打席裡IsoP達到0.141；在大聯盟的73個打
席中更達到0.169。這個數字在現在的打擊仰角革命時代並不突出，但對他別具意義。
在2018年之前六年的職業生涯中，林子偉的IsoP只有在2017年在2A的184個打席中超
過0.100。而2018年的林子偉整年維持了令人樂見的長打進化。

Sticking with a similar part of his game, Lin’s general quality of contact
was fantastic all year long. That’s not super surprising given the uptick
in power and the relative consistency of that uptick, but it’s still worth
mentioning. Along with the ISO’s that broke from his career norms, Lin was
posting strong batting averages on balls in play. Although some of those
numbers are simply good luck, and another portion is due to minor-league
defense, Lin deserves credit here. In the majors, according to Fangraphs’
batted ball numbers, he hit the ball hard over 41 percent of the time
(league-average is 35 percent) and hit line drives 27 percent of the time.
Granted, these come over a very small sample so a grain of salt should be
taken, but it’s worth mentioning his line drive rate stuck through his
Triple-A stint as well. Hard-hit rates aren’t available in the minors.
Combine the line drives and his above-average athleticism and you get a
recipe for strong BABIPs. Lin posted a .385 BABIP in Pawtucket and a .319
mark in Boston.

與長打的進化相似，林子偉保持了整年優秀的擊球品質。雖然不是非常令人驚訝，
但值得一提的是，林子偉的打擊率跟他的長打能力一起進化了。雖然這些數字帶了些
運氣的成份，小聯盟的守備也美化了這部分數字，但仍值得令人稱讚。在大聯盟時根
據Fangraphs的擊球統計，他扎實擊中球的比例達到41%，而聯盟平均只有35%；另外平
飛球率達到27%。當然這些數字來自小樣本所以不一定可靠。然而，雖然3A沒有統計扎
實擊球的比率，但他在3A的平飛球率一樣優異。綜合他的平飛球率及高於平均的運動能
力，就能知道為何他把球打進場內時有優秀的上壘能力。他在3A的BAPIP達到0.385, 而
在大聯盟時是0.319。

Finally, we move away from the offense and look at the defense, which has
always been the calling card for Lin. Fangraphs has him providing negative
value with the glove in the majors, but given the size of the sample I
think that can be ignored. What’s most important for Lin at this point is
to build as much versatility as possible. Even with the strides he has made
with the bat, his future role is off a major-league bench, and the more
positions he can play the more value he’ll bring to his future team. Lin
didn’t play a ton of positions this year, but he did get time at shortstop
(his natural position) and center field. It’s the outfield that is so
important. We have seen him enough to know he can be at least passable all
around the infield, and that he continues to get time in center field means
he could be able to play all around the outfield as well. If that sticks,
Lin becomes a true super utility player and has legitimate value in the
majors as long as his bat avoids becoming a black hole.

最後，我們撇開進攻部分，來看看林子偉一向被人標榜的防守。在Fangraphs中，他
2018的防守在大聯盟裡的是負貢獻的。但這個樣本太小，我們可以直接忽略。現在對
林子偉來說，最重要的就是表現他在防守的多元性。即使他的打擊已經進步很多，他
的未來期望仍是從板凳出發。擁有越多守備位置，他對球隊就越有價值。今年他並沒
有守一大堆位置，但他防守了游擊區(他的老本行)以及中外野。過去我們已經看到他
內野幾乎每個位置都能守。而既然他持續得到在中外野的防守機會，那意味著他外野
也是三個位置都能守。如果這樣繼續下去，只要他不變成打線裡的黑洞，他會成為大
聯盟裡真正的超級工具人。

The Negatives
不好的部分

As Lin’s power and general quality of contact has improved, we’ve seen a
backslide in his plate discipline as a result. It’s not terribly surprising
to see a worse overall approach at the plate as a player starts to hit for
more power, but it doesn’t make it much easier to swallow. Over his
professional career, the utility man has always been able to walk at a high
clip while also striking out at a rate well below the league average. That
wasn’t the case in 2018. In Triple-A, where he spent most of his time, he
walked just 7.6 percent of the time while he struck out 21.2 percent of the
time. It was a version of Lin we’ve almost never seen. In his short
major-league stint, to his credit, his walk rate did creep up above
11 percent, but he also struck out 23 percent of the time. If Lin can keep
up the power and BABIP, he can survive with these less-than-stellar plate
discipline numbers, particularly as a bench player with his versatility.
That’s betting big on relatively new developments in terms of contact
quality, though.

雖然林子偉的擊球品質及長打力在持續提昇，作為代價，他的固守好球帶的能力有顯著
下滑。當一個球員正長出一些長打時，把球帶進來的能力下滑並不是令人驚恐的事情。
然而，這件事不能就這樣下結論。作為一個功能性球員，林子偉的生涯是高上壘率而且
三振率低於聯盟平均的球員。2018年不同了。在3A，他的上壘率只有7.6%而且三振率達
21.2%，這對他來說是從沒發生過的。在有限的大聯盟打席中，他的保送率達到值得稱讚
的11%，但三振率達23%。如果他能維持現有的長打以及高的BAPIP，作為一個多才多藝的
板凳球員，他也能這個低於平均的本壘版紀律下存活。這是一場攸關於提高擊球品質的
一場博奕

Lin also wasn’t the kind of baserunner we’ve grown accustomed to over his
professional career. Now, without seeing him everyday (since most of his
games were in the minors) it’s hard to know if this was simply a team
strategy thing or something had changed with Lin. The 24-year-old (he’ll
be 25 in February) had been a double-digit steals guy throughout his
professional career, but this year he only swiped three bases, with all of
them coming in Triple-A. In fact, Fangraphs rated him as a negative on the
bases in the majors, though again the sample is very small. Even worse, he
was caught more often than he was successful. Lin has never been a true
burner, but as we talked about above the amount of versatility he has is key
to his value. That doesn’t just mean defense, and if he can be a true pinch
running asset that will only help him. He took a step back in that area in
2018.

林子偉的跑壘與過去我們了解的他也不一致。因為他待在小聯盟較多，我們無法了解是
因為球隊的策略，還是什麼事情造成快滿25歲的林子偉今年只有成功盜了三次壘，而且
都在3A。過去他是一個平均雙位數盜壘的球員。而事實上根據Fangraphs，雖然是小樣
本，他的跑壘貢獻在大聯盟是負的。而更糟的是他盜壘被抓到的次數比成功的次數還多。
林子偉一直不是一個好的盜壘發動者，但如同我們之前提到的，他的價值是在他的多樣
能力。這不僅是指守備而已，還有他的代跑能力是否能成為另一種價值。在2018，這部
份退化了。

The Big Question
Was Tzu-Wei Lin’s 2017 a fluke?
關鍵問題：到底2017的林子偉是真的進化了還是曇花一現？

It was a little while ago now, but Lin absolutely came out of nowhere in
2017 to be a legitimate major-league depth piece. He exploded in Double-A
to start the year after never showing any upside with the bat previously in
his professional career, and as the Red Sox were decimated by injury and
underperformance in the infield that year he got a shocking call-up to the
bigs. Given how surprising the surge in performance was, it was only natural
to think there was at least a chance it was a fluke, but Lin proved the
strides he made at the plate were very real. Again, he’s probably not
going to be a starter in the majors, particularly on a good team, but prior
to 2017 he was very likely not even a major leaguer. Now he should have a
solid career as a bench player after he continued to improve at the plate
in 2018.

這已經是討論一段時間的議題了,但現在已無庸置疑，他已經是能在大聯盟貢獻團隊深
度的一份子。2017,他在2A的打擊在開季出現了前所未有的爆發，而在紅襪當時的傷兵潮
與其他球員糟糕的表現下，球團出乎意外的把他升上大聯盟。一般認為這只是球團在他
短期爆發下給的一個機會，但林子偉掌握住這個機會並表現得非常優秀。也許他不會是
一個大聯盟的先發選手，特別是在一個強隊的時候。但2017年後，他證明了他很可能不
僅僅只是能升上大聯盟而已。只要打擊能持續像2018年一樣的成長，他能以板凳球員的
身分有著不錯的大聯盟生涯。

The Year Ahead
展望來年

Lin is expected to serve in a similar role in 2019 to the one he served in
2018. That’s not great news for the player, who likely feels he’s earned
a real chance at sticking on a major-league roster all year. He’s probably
right, but the Red Sox aren’t in a position to make that happen, and they
also aren’t in a position to trade him to a team that will. Lin’s best
chance at real time depends on the health of guys like Dustin Pedroia and
Marco Hernandez, which may actually be good news for Lin. The good news for
him is that this is his final year with a minor-league option, so this year
is just about maintaining value so he can be in a position to take a roster
spot with someone in 2020.

預期2019年林子偉仍會扮演與2018年相同的角色。對他來說這並不是一個好消息，特別
是他似乎已經值得在大聯盟名單擁有一席之地。這句話可能是對的，但不適用於紅襪
隊，而且似乎紅襪隊也不會當賣家把林子偉交易到其他隊伍。他的機會取決於一些球
員，像Dustin Pedroia 或 Marco Hernandez的健康；而這對林子偉可能不是壞消息。
好消息是這會是他最後一年有下放小聯盟的選項，所以2019年林子偉的目標就是維持
2018年的表現，然後在2020年取代某人進入球隊的大聯盟名單。

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