2010s十大交易案 Part 6 - 美國職棒

因為LukeMarley大一年沒更新了，所以我打算接手翻完這系列的文章，第一次嘗試翻譯，
有問題請多指教。
這是2010s十大交易案第六集

6) The Pirates get bold
July 31, 2018: Rays trade P Chris Archer to Pirates for P Tyler Glasnow, OF Au
stin Meadows and P Shane Baz
What even?
Barely six months after trading Gerrit Cole to the Astros, where he'd famously
bloom into one of baseball's best pitchers, the Pirates, then 3 1/2 games out
of an NL Wild Card spot, finally got the Rays to ship out their longtime ace.
The 2018 Pirates were sitting eight games below .500 as late as July 7, but a
15-of-18 winning run convinced them that pushing in was the right idea, not o
nly for that year, but for the three additional years Archer was under contrac
t for.
This one was always difficult to evaluate at the time, because it was never ju
st about "Archer for prospects." It was about "a worse pitcher than Cole for a
higher price than they'd received from Houston," making it a net downgrade, a
nd it was also about not having made such a move two or three years earlier wh
en the World Series was in sight.
For five years, between 2013-17, Archer had been one of baseball's better star
ters, giving Tampa Bay 937 2/3 innings of 3.60 ERA ball. The 2018 Rays were ou
t of the race, but they'd notably gone out and traded for Tommy Pham on the sa
me day, perhaps tipping their hand that they'd seen something about Archer's p
itches they didn't like.

6.Chris Archer 搶劫案
海盜拿到：Chris Archer
光芒拿到：Austin Meadows、Shane Baz、Tyler Glasnow
(1)交易發生背景
在將Gerrit Cole交易至太空人隊，而他隨即成為MLB最好的先發投手之後，海盜在2018賽
季出乎意料的僅僅以3又1/2場勝差落後國聯外卡第二名。雖然他們的勝率還不到五成，但
近18場15勝的優異成績讓海盜決定下手賭一把，換來還能控制三年的光芒隊王牌投手。
由於Cole交易案的關係，這筆交易案的賺賠很難只靠雙方的籌碼評估，而是必須考量海盜
將較好的SP交易掉，又用較昂貴的代價取得較差的SP這樣的操作。因此海盜在一開始交易
的評價就比較差一點。而陣容距離爭冠還有不少距離就開始梭哈也有不小的疑慮
Chris Archer是光芒五年來的王牌投手，937局的投球中擁有防禦率3.60，WAR17.3的優異
成績。不過光芒在7/31時已經落後美聯外卡席位高達9場勝差，顯然已早早放棄競爭。因
此他們決定將Archer交易出去，以加速重建的過程。

Were the takes good or bad?
“It might not work out as well as they want, but you have to admire [the Pira
tes'] courage," wrote Jeff Sullivan. "Archer is a quality arm, but this is qui
te a return for the #Rays," tweeted MLB Network host Robert Flores. The Ringer
probably summed it up best with the headline of "By Trading for Chris Archer,
the Pirates Have Made the Gerrit Cole Deal Look Even Worse."

（2）當時交易評價：
普遍來說光芒隊獲得較高的評價。MLB Network作家Robert Flores寫道「Archer是優異的
投手，不過光芒獲得的回報是完全可以接受的」
Chris Archer在2018年的表現已經不若以往威猛，但仍然是不錯的中段先發。海盜則是付
出了相當多的潛力。Tyler Glasnow曾經高居2017年百大新秀第九名，擁有相當快的速球
和軌跡噁心的曲球，被譽為有Ace的潛力；Austin Meadows在同年排名第十，他是一名Co
ntact能力不錯，有可能成為能打出三成打擊率外帶二十轟的中外野手；Shane Baz則是20
17年第一輪第十二順位剛選來的高大右投手，於18年排名67。
不過這幾位主菜都有各自的問題，Glasnow在上大聯盟之後控球爆炸，兩年來數據都很慘
；Meadows只靠超高的babip威一個月，拿了POM之後就被打回原形，因此可以說海盜用兩
個風險極高的新秀換來了風險同樣不低的Chris Archer
最後，作者跟譯者都最喜歡的評語就是The Ringer的「Chris Archer交易案讓Cole交易案
看起來更糟糕了」XD

And then what happened?
The Pirates went 26-27 over the final two months, quickly fading out of the po
stseason race. Archer's 4.31 ERA in 10 starts was about the same as the 4.30 m
ark he'd posted in 17 starts for the Rays -- fine, but nothing terribly specia
l. His 2019 was considerably worse, as he posted a 5.19 ERA in 119 2/3 innings
around shoulder and thumb issues.
For the Rays, Meadows, who had won NL Rookie of the Month in May for Pittsburg
h, has done nothing but hit, making the AL All-Star team and posting a 141 OPS
+ with 34 homers in parts of two seasons. Glasnow missed much of 2019 due to i
njury, but when he was available, he was unbelievable, posting a 1.78 ERA in 6
0 2/3 innings, striking out 76. Baz is still only in Class A and is Tampa Bay'
s No. 7 prospect per MLB Pipeline.

（3)交易後續影響：
Archer在18年在10場先發中為海盜貢獻了防禦率4.31中規中矩的成績，不過沒能幫助海盜
打進季後賽，他們最後53場只有26-27。而19跟20賽季對海盜來說是場災難。Archer在19
賽季防禦率高達5.19，20賽季則是因為傷病完全未出賽，海盜在這筆交易案的收穫可以看
做0。而且在20賽季後，光芒還又以1年6.35M將Archer簽回去了。
相反的，幾隻新秀主菜全部都被光芒隊修好了。Meadows在19年OPS+高達141，附帶34隻全
壘打並入選明星賽。雖然20年他遇到傷兵問題加上縮水賽季調整不及導致數據不好看，不
過這位還能被光芒控制4年的明星打者仍然會是極有價值的資產；Glasnow於19年60局中繳
出1.78ERA 的好成績，20年FIP也是不錯的3.66，儼然成為光芒新一代王牌投手。在20年
季後賽他還先發出賽6場，幫助光芒打入世界大賽；Baz仍然持續成長，已經開始在2A投球
，並且今年排在Mlb.com百大新秀第90名。

Would each team do it again?
The Rays sold at the right time for the right return and may have built the nu
cleus of their next great team with this one. Fifteen months after this deal,
Pittsburgh, fresh off a 93-loss season, dismissed general manager Neal Hunting
ton as part of a total house-cleaning. So no, probably not.

(4)如果可以回到過去，交易雙方會反悔嗎？
光芒這筆交易應該是十年來最賺的。他們在正確的時機點發動交易，換到了王牌等級先發
、年輕的明星外野手跟高潛力的百大新秀右投手，給他們十次機會他們都會願意換；而海
盜在交易後直接跌入谷底，19年93敗後他們還炒了總管Huntington，並進入重建，他們
想當然爾不會願意再換的。

--