2010s十大交易 Part10 - 美國職棒

這是2010s 十大交易案最後一集，翻譯Mike Petriello的外電。
來源：https://www.mlb.com/news/the-10-biggest-mlb-trades-of-the-2010s

(10) The Braves and the heist everyone knew was a heist
Dec. 9, 2015: Braves trade P Shelby Miller and P Gabe Speier to D-backs for SS
Dansby Swanson, OF Ender Inciarte and P Aaron Blair

10.每個人都知道是搶劫的Shelby Miller搶劫案

勇士拿到：Dansby Swanson、Ender Inciarte、Aaron Blair
響尾蛇拿到：Shelby Miller、Gabe Speier

What even?
Former Arizona GM Dave Stewart deserves some amount of credit for looking past
Miller's 6-17 record in 2015 to focus on the 3.02 ERA the 24-year-old posted
in 205 1/3 innings, but he paid an absolutely enormous price to get him. Arizo
na surrendered No. 1 overall Draft pick Swanson only six months after he'd sig
ned, along with 2013 first-rounder Blair, and it failed to properly value Inci
arte, who had just posted absolutely elite defensive numbers (+29 Defensive Ru
ns Saved) in 2015 to go with a league-average bat -- a star-level combo.
Officially announced only days after the D-backs shockingly signed Zack Greink
e away from the Dodgers for $206.5 million, it was a very clear "win-now" move
. There's nothing wrong with that, but the price was so stunningly high -- you
could argue, as we did at the time, that five years of Inciarte alone could b
e more valuable than three of Miller -- that it shook the baseball world. Atla
nta had earlier traded Jason Heyward's final year before free agency to St. Lo
uis for Miller, and it turned that one year into a very good year from Miller
and all of this. It was quite the shell game.

(1)交易發生背景
24歲的Shelby Miller當年雖然傳統勝敗數據不好看（6-17，國聯敗投王)，但是他的防禦
率在209.1局中是傑出的3.02。我們必須讚揚Dave Stewart不管勝敗，正確的評估這位好
手價值的舉動，但為了獲得他，響尾蛇實在付出太多太多了。
交易主菜Dansby Swanson是2015年狀元，排名BA百大第17，最大的賣點是優異的守備與水
準以上的打擊能力；Aaron Blair是2013年首輪新秀，排名BA百大60，擁有多樣的變化球
和不錯的控球；最後Inciarte是已經在大聯盟證明過自己的即戰力，他擁有出色的守備（
+29DRS)與聯盟平均的打擊能力(WRC+100)，這是一個明星外野手會擁有的能力。
響尾蛇在交易前一天剛正式宣佈簽下賽揚強投Zack Greinke，因此可以理解他們想要Win-
Now的決心。但即使在Miller健康的情況下，擁有五年控制權的Inciarte也可能三年的Mil
ler擁有更多的價值。當年勇士用合約到期的Jason Heyward就換來Miller，在他一年優異
表現後就足以將他賣到這麼高的價錢，這根本不是交易，而是詐騙。

Were the takes good or bad?
My friends, they were spicy. Now-Rays analyst Jeff Sullivan, then at FanGraphs
, said it was "a clear, obvious mistake," MLB Network insider Ken Rosenthal qu
oted an executive who said it was "the worst trade I've ever seen," and ESPN's
Keith Law wrote that the cost was "comically high," and, well, you get the id
ea. Baseball Twitter has rarely been so aligned on anything, or so correct.

(2)交易當時評價
很罕見的，眾多寫手和分析家的看法驚人的一致。FG的Jeff Sulivan表示「這是毫無疑問
且明顯的錯誤」；ESPN的Keith Law則形容響尾蛇付出的代價「高到有點可笑」；而大家
熟悉的Ken Rosenthal則給了一個很恰當，事後也被證明相當正確的評語
「這是我所看過最糟糕的交易」

And then what happened?
However poorly you think this might have gone for Arizona, it ended up being
worse. If Miller had pitched well and if it had made the postseason, you might
not mind what you'd given up. That didn't happen, obviously. Miller's first y
ear in the desert was dreadful (6.15 ERA in 101 innings), and the D-backs lost
93 games. The next year, he required Tommy John surgery before the end of Apr
il. Miller's total Arizona career: 139 innings, 6.35 ERA. After posting an 8.5
9 ERA for Texas in 2019, he's currently unsigned. He's still only 29 years old
.
Blair never panned out, but Swanson has become the starting shortstop on a pla
yoff Atlanta team, though he's yet to have the true breakout we've been expect
ing. Inciarte won NL Gold Glove Awards in each of his first three seasons in A
tlanta, compiling 10 WAR.

(3)交易後續影響
真實的情況比你能想得到最差的還更差。如果追求Win-Now的響尾蛇能拿到狀況正常的Mil
ler並打進季後賽，他們可能不會在乎失去了什麼。但Miller來到響尾蛇首年102局中防禦
率是悲慘的6.35，他們還輸了93場。隔年他在四月就開了TJ，之後在18年被Non-Tender。
他在19年於遊騎兵繳出8.59的防禦率之後就被釋出，到現在為止再也沒有簽下過大聯
盟合約。
相反地，Ender Inciarte在轉隊後表現依然傑出，2016-18年連續三年奪下金手套，並且
在17年繳出單季200安，入選明星賽的優異表現。雖然他在19、20年表現都不佳，但是另
一名主菜Swanson的貢獻足以抵銷他的衰退。這位完成度極高的年輕好手在被選中二年後
就登上大聯盟，雖然一開始打擊表現不佳，但是堅實的守備讓他每年都可以貢獻1.5左右
的WAR。2020年他的打擊總算有所突破，打出110WRC+外帶2WAR。明顯的，今年MVP-18的Sw
anson正在朝明星游擊手進步。Blair雖然變成空氣了，但是Swanson/Inciarte總共為球隊
打進15.8WAR，比Miller三年間累積的0.7WAR多了二十倍以上。

Would each team do it again?
You don't even need to ask that question about the Braves. Stewart lost his jo
b as Arizona's GM less than a year later, so probably not. (In 2017, he said t
hat while he thought Miller would do better in Arizona, he did regret trading
Swanson.)

(4)如果可以回到過去，交易雙方會反悔嗎？
實際上這問題根本不需要考慮，勇士當然會選擇再來一次。而響尾蛇方面，總管Stewart
在作出這筆交易之後隔年就被炒了，我們還需要多說些什麼嗎？

總算翻完整個系列了，說真的以評估交易來說，這種馬後砲的分析其實對評估GM能力沒什
麼用。就像許多版友所說，新秀養成是非常不確定的東西，或許某個新秀在某隊可以長成
明星，在另一隊卻會變成大誤；又或是像Goldy一樣，從選秀第8輪長成MVP選手。不僅交
易當下的取捨，未來養成及傷病因素也會影響交易的成敗。但是，在現在再次回顧這些交
易，看著當年那些正確或是錯誤的評估和期待，追蹤著球隊或達成他們的目標或不幸墜落
，不也是相當迷人的事情嗎？
感謝各位耐心的閱讀，我們下次再見。

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