2010-2019 十大交易案 part 3 - 美國職棒

這是2010-2019十大交易案的第三集，在翻譯時覺得原文作者有少許地方說明得
不夠清楚，所以就參考了原文章給的一些參考資料，我也會提供文章網址給各版友參考。

原文：https://www.mlb.com/news/the-10-biggest-mlb-trades-of-the-2010s

3. The Royals make the right trade for their ace
Dec. 19, 2010: Royals trade P Zack Greinke and IF Yuniesky Betancourt to
Brewers for OF Lorenzo Cain, P Jake Odorizzi, P Jeremy Jeffress and SS
Alcides Escobar

What even?
The Brewers, coming off a 77-85 season and knowing that Prince Fielder was
headed into his final season before free agency, decided that 2011 was a
go-for-it year, having earlier traded Brett Lawrie for starter Shaun Marcum
to join incumbent starters Yovani Gallardo and Randy Wolf. Adding Greinke
gave them what was considered a strong top four.
Greinke had debuted with the Royals at age 20 in 2004, and after a few false
starts, had blossomed into an ace, winning the 2009 AL Cy Young Award by
posting a 2.16 ERA in 229 1/3 innings. But the Royals had been a losing team
every year he was there, and he had reportedly asked the team for a trade to
a contender. He'd earlier refused to waive his no-trade clause to allow a
move to the Nationals before relenting for Milwaukee.

3. Zach Greinke 交易案
釀酒人獲得：Zack Greinke, Yuniesky Betancourt
皇家獲得：Lorenzo Cain, Jake Odorizzi, Jeremy Jeffress, Alcides Escobar

(1)交易發生背景
釀酒人剛結束一個77勝85敗的失望球季。他們雖然有Ryan Braun、Prince
Fielder、Rickie Weeks三大強打坐鎮打線，全隊野手累積的30 FWAR 為國聯第二，僅次
於紅人的35.7。但先發投手合計只繳出5.6 FWAR的淒慘成績，排名國聯倒數第二。考量到
Prince Fielder即將在2011年球季結束後變成FA，釀酒人決定拚一把。Greinke加入原先就
在陣中的Yovani Gallardo、Randy Wolf還有剛用Brett Lawrie換來的Shaun Marcum組成
穩定的前四號先發，他們四個都是一季能投超過180局的工作馬。釀酒人期待Greinke能像
2008年的CC Sabathia一樣，帶領他們重返季後賽。
2004年球季，Greinke 以20歲之姿時登上大聯盟，他的生涯發展軌跡跟前輩Roy
Halladay和Cliff Lee相似，都是經過一段撞牆期後才大爆發成為球隊王牌。2009年的
Greinke主投229.1局，交出驚人的2.16 ERA/2.33 FIP/8.7FWAR表現，一舉奪下美聯賽揚
獎。2010年球季他的投球表現依然優秀（220局 4.17 ERA/3.34FIP/4.9 FWAR），但皇家
在2004-2010年勝率一直在四成左右徘徊， Greinke終於向皇家要求把他交易到有季後賽實
力的球隊。皇家原先想將他換去到國民，但被Greinke動用合約上的不得交易條款拒絕了，
最後才將他交易到密爾瓦基。

Were the takes good or bad?

No one liked this for the Royals. Sensing a theme? The return for Kansas City
was "OK, not great," wrote this particular author. "If that was the best they
could do, should have waited." One prominent Royals blog flatly stated, "I
don't like the trade." At FanGraphs, it was: "My first reaction to the
package coming to Kansas City was: Really, that’s it?" It was more favorable
for Milwaukee; ESPN's Keith Law wrote that if you make a trade like this,
"you do it for an impact player who dramatically increases your chances to
reach or advance in the postseason in the upcoming season."

(2)交易當時評價
Greinke身上還有兩年的合約，合約總值34 M以一個賽揚強投來說相當划算，所
以當時沒有人喜歡皇家的這個操作。Petriello發推文說：「皇家拿到的回報還可以，但絕
對稱不上優秀。如果這是他們所能拿到最好的包裹，或許留下Greinke才是正確的決定。」
Royalsview寫手Jeff Zimmerman寫道：「我不喜歡這個交易。（註1）」Fangraphs作家
Marc Hulet寫道：「看到完整的交易包裹後，我的第一個反應是：『蛤？真的就只有這樣
？釀酒人還滿賺的。』」Kieth Law則是在文章中提到：「如果補強需要榨乾你原本就不
怎麼豐碩的農場，你就必須換到一個明星，一個憑著自己就可以大幅增加球隊競爭力的球
員。（註2）」

Alcides Escobar曾在2009年時被評為全美第八的新秀，他的游擊區防守非常優
異，也在2010年有了第一個MLB完整賽季，但他的打擊能力一直都是他成長的罩門，2010年
他的WRC+只有62，沒有任何power（純長打率ISO .091），跑速雖快但極低的上壘率限制了
他在壘間的破壞力（OBP .288、BB% 6.4%）；Lorenzo Cain也是一個防守優異但沒什麼打
擊潛力的中外野手；Odorizzi 的評價很不錯，但還在1A磨練的他至少還要三年才能登上大
聯盟；Jeffress 有頂尖的速球，但是他尚未練出穩定的變化球種，並且他因為使用大麻被
聯盟禁賽，失去了許多發展時間。當時的主流評價認為：「皇家交易了一個賽揚強投，一
個franchise player，卻只換到一批有明顯缺點的新秀。」

註1：Jeff Zimmerman當時寫了一段很難聽的評論：" I don't like the trade.
Dayton seems to just trying to trade for pieces to fill in his needs.”

翻譯：「我不喜歡這個交易，感覺我們的GM Dayton Moore沒有索取最好的天賦，而是想
用這個交易來填補陣容上的洞。」
原文：https://reurl.cc/XX0NO0

註2：我在翻譯Kieth Law寫的這個段落覺得有點奇怪，所以就去找了他的原文。結果驚喜
的發現文章開放給免費仔閱讀的部分還滿多的。他是寫說：”If you're going to gut
your farm system -- and I think the Milwaukee Brewers have likely secured the
bottom spot in the organizational rankings I'll put out in January -- you do
it for an impact player who dramatically increases your chances to reach or
advance in the postseason in the upcoming season.”

因為Escobar跟Cain都已經升上大聯盟，釀酒人的農場頓時掉到聯盟後段，如果必須榨乾
已經貧脊的農場就必須換到像Greinke這樣的game changer。
原文：https://reurl.cc/Na7916

And then what happened?
The Brewers went for it, and they got it. Milwaukee improved by 19 games to
96-66 to win the National League Central. The Crew reached the NL
Championship Series before falling in six games to the Cardinals. Greinke
infamously broke a rib playing basketball just before Spring Training and
didn't debut until May, but he threw 171 2/3 innings of 3.83 ERA ball with
underlying peripherals that suggested he'd actually been more effective. He
was pitching well the next season headed into free agency, when he was traded
to the Angels in July, returning Jean Segura, who was a 2013 All-Star and was
eventually dealt for Chase Anderson, Aaron Hill and Isan Diaz, who was part
of the Christian Yelich deal.

The Royals lost 95 games in 2010, and then lost 91 games in '11 and 90 more
in '12. But Cain blossomed into a star, pairing a solid bat with good speed
and excellent defense. He posted 25.1 Wins Above Replacement over parts of
seven years in Kansas City. Escobar never really did hit, but "Esky Magic"
was certainly a thing during their 2015 run. Jeffress didn't do anything for
Kansas City, later blossoming back with Milwaukee.

(3)交易後續影響

釀酒人賭下去了，而他們也成功了。他們比起前一年多贏了19場，一舉奪下國
中冠軍。但他們在NLCS輸給了當年的冠軍「不死鳥」紅雀。Greinke雖然在二月底打籃球
時撞斷了肋骨，一直到五月時才能出賽，但他還是投了171.2局，ERA 3.83看起來有點普通
，但2.98的FIP表示他的身手並沒有退化。2012賽季Greinke的表現依然非常好，他在季中
被交易到天使換回游擊手Jean Segura。Segura在2013年入選明星賽，他在2016年初被交易
到響尾蛇，換回Chase Anderson、Aaron Hill 和Isan Diaz。而Diaz則幫助釀酒人交易到
Christian Yelich。

皇家在2010-2012年的戰績非常差，分別輸了95、91、90場比賽。但Cain長成了
全明星，憑著優異的防守與平均之上的打擊，在皇家七年裡累積的25.1WAR排名全聯盟中外
野手第八；Escobar的打擊還是一樣差，在皇家的八年WRC+只有71，但他在2015年季後賽展
現的瘋狂打擊表現令大家跌破眼鏡，史稱"Esky Magic"；Odorizzi幫助皇家交易來James
Shields。雖然Jeffress沒有養成功，但這個交易結果對於皇家來說很不錯了。

Would each team do it again?
Yes. The Brewers wanted to win, and they did, with Greinke's help and the
trade tree this spawned benefits them to this day. The Royals got a huge part
of their 2014-15 AL pennant-winning core.

(4)如果可以回到過去，交易雙方會反悔嗎？

釀酒人想拚季後賽，而且他們也成功了。隔年把Greinke交易出去的操作間接讓
他們獲得了Yelich；而Cain跟Escobar是皇家2015年奪冠的核心成員。目前看來，雙方都
會滿意此交易的結果。


To be continued...






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