10/10 今日消息 - 美國職棒
By Caroline
at 2017-10-11T23:12
at 2017-10-11T23:12
Table of Contents
Dombrowski正在開記者會,晚點更新。
--
1. redsoxstats談Eric Hosmer:
Hosmer是個耐操好用、打過冠軍隊的選手,今年以28歲年紀進入自由市場。他在某些球隊
或城市裡會拿出好成績,且看似適合缺一壘手的紅襪。但是,他適合紅襪嗎?
--
Hosmer最近幾年狀況不太穩定,最近幾年的WAR:1.5, -0.4, 3.5, 0.8, 3.6, 1.0, 4.0
今年合約年打出高水準表現,WAR名列一壘手第七,預計會在這個冬天拿到破$100M的合約
。
(3-4 WAR: good player)
--
防守方面,2013, 2014, 2015都拿下金手套獎,即使進階防守數據不挺他。雖然運動能力
不錯,但是Hosmer在一壘的range不廣(教練說是average range)。
防守數據在最近兩年大幅退步:
DRS: -10, -5, 3, 3, 1, -6, -7
UZR: -11, -13, 3, 0, 1, -8, 0
當然,Hosmer撈地瓜的能力很強。
--
打擊方面,Hosmer不像當年Pablo Sandoval那樣有明顯的紅旗,但是有些特徵需要注意。
Hosmer的保送率大多落在9%左右,三振率15-17% (2016年衝到20%)。
好球帶外的揮擊率是30%,大約是大聯盟平均;好球帶內揮棒率69%,也大約是聯盟平均;
contact%是80%,聯盟平均78%。
紅襪球迷都同意紅襪需要全壘打打者,而有些人將Hosmer視為解答之一。聯盟平均的ISO
是.175,Hosmer今年25 HR, 31 2B, .179 ISO;2016年.167 ISO、2015年.162 ISO。
Mitch Moreland今年22 HR, 34 2B (比Hosmer少了95 PA),過去三季的ISO則是.204,
.189, .197。
--
Hosmer最令人擔心的是滾地球比率,他最近兩年的滾地球比率是57.2%,聯盟第二高,僅
次於飛毛腿Dee Gordon。
這段期間2.4滾飛比是聯盟第四高;近四季滾飛比1.6, 2.1, 2.4, 2.5。
contact部分,soft%是聯盟第29高,演進也令人擔心:14%, 17%, 18%, 19%, 22%;Hard%
是131位打者裡排名第87名。
芬威球場是最不適合左打砲的球場之一,中、右外野都很遠(除了Pesky's Pole)。
芬威的綠色怪物能幫助Hosmer嗎?110位左打者中,左外野方向非滾地的比率排第68、仰
角排第98名,所以左外野的強力射牆一壘安會比較多、全壘打較少。
--
2017年Hosmer的實際數據比推估的正常值高上許多,Statcast估計他.353 wOBA,但是
Hosmer今年.385 wOBA。
前兩季的估計正常值和實際數據相當接近:2015 (.362 to .360) and 2016 (.339 to
.333)
順帶一提,今年的wOBA領先者是Judge .446, Votto .424, and JD Martinez .423。
--
Hosmer今年的BABIP是生涯新高的.351,生涯BABIP是.316。
--
而Eric Hosmer今年會被提QO,紅襪簽Hosmer的話會賠上2018年選秀第二輪籤以及國際球
員簽約的$500K。
2. 今年進FA的有:Addison Reed Doug Fister, Eduardo Nunez, Mitch Moreland,
Rajai Davis, Chris Young
3. Drew Pomeranz昨天談Farrell:Pomeranz學習與教練合作而不是單純的被管理。「對
於雙方來說,知道對方的想法和心情是很重要的,我們這季花了很多時間溝通,建立
起了很棒的關係。我希望能傳達我過去的狀況,並且幫他贏球。」
4. Will Middlebrooks通過Waiver,下放遊騎兵3A
--
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█ ◥█ █◤ █ █ █ █◣ █
▅▅ ████ ◥ ◤ ████ █ █ █◥◣█
█ █ █ █ █ █ ◥█
█ ◥███ █ ◥███ ◥ ◤ █ ◥ 11:11
--
--
1. redsoxstats談Eric Hosmer:
Hosmer是個耐操好用、打過冠軍隊的選手,今年以28歲年紀進入自由市場。他在某些球隊
或城市裡會拿出好成績,且看似適合缺一壘手的紅襪。但是,他適合紅襪嗎?
--
Hosmer最近幾年狀況不太穩定,最近幾年的WAR:1.5, -0.4, 3.5, 0.8, 3.6, 1.0, 4.0
今年合約年打出高水準表現,WAR名列一壘手第七,預計會在這個冬天拿到破$100M的合約
。
(3-4 WAR: good player)
--
防守方面,2013, 2014, 2015都拿下金手套獎,即使進階防守數據不挺他。雖然運動能力
不錯,但是Hosmer在一壘的range不廣(教練說是average range)。
防守數據在最近兩年大幅退步:
DRS: -10, -5, 3, 3, 1, -6, -7
UZR: -11, -13, 3, 0, 1, -8, 0
當然,Hosmer撈地瓜的能力很強。
--
打擊方面,Hosmer不像當年Pablo Sandoval那樣有明顯的紅旗,但是有些特徵需要注意。
Hosmer的保送率大多落在9%左右,三振率15-17% (2016年衝到20%)。
好球帶外的揮擊率是30%,大約是大聯盟平均;好球帶內揮棒率69%,也大約是聯盟平均;
contact%是80%,聯盟平均78%。
紅襪球迷都同意紅襪需要全壘打打者,而有些人將Hosmer視為解答之一。聯盟平均的ISO
是.175,Hosmer今年25 HR, 31 2B, .179 ISO;2016年.167 ISO、2015年.162 ISO。
Mitch Moreland今年22 HR, 34 2B (比Hosmer少了95 PA),過去三季的ISO則是.204,
.189, .197。
--
Hosmer最令人擔心的是滾地球比率,他最近兩年的滾地球比率是57.2%,聯盟第二高,僅
次於飛毛腿Dee Gordon。
這段期間2.4滾飛比是聯盟第四高;近四季滾飛比1.6, 2.1, 2.4, 2.5。
contact部分,soft%是聯盟第29高,演進也令人擔心:14%, 17%, 18%, 19%, 22%;Hard%
是131位打者裡排名第87名。
芬威球場是最不適合左打砲的球場之一,中、右外野都很遠(除了Pesky's Pole)。
芬威的綠色怪物能幫助Hosmer嗎?110位左打者中,左外野方向非滾地的比率排第68、仰
角排第98名,所以左外野的強力射牆一壘安會比較多、全壘打較少。
--
2017年Hosmer的實際數據比推估的正常值高上許多,Statcast估計他.353 wOBA,但是
Hosmer今年.385 wOBA。
前兩季的估計正常值和實際數據相當接近:2015 (.362 to .360) and 2016 (.339 to
.333)
順帶一提,今年的wOBA領先者是Judge .446, Votto .424, and JD Martinez .423。
--
Hosmer今年的BABIP是生涯新高的.351,生涯BABIP是.316。
--
而Eric Hosmer今年會被提QO,紅襪簽Hosmer的話會賠上2018年選秀第二輪籤以及國際球
員簽約的$500K。
2. 今年進FA的有:Addison Reed Doug Fister, Eduardo Nunez, Mitch Moreland,
Rajai Davis, Chris Young
3. Drew Pomeranz昨天談Farrell:Pomeranz學習與教練合作而不是單純的被管理。「對
於雙方來說,知道對方的想法和心情是很重要的,我們這季花了很多時間溝通,建立
起了很棒的關係。我希望能傳達我過去的狀況,並且幫他贏球。」
4. Will Middlebrooks通過Waiver,下放遊騎兵3A
--
█ █ ◢██◣ ◢███ █◣ ◢█ ◢███ ◢██◣ ◣ █
█ ◥█ █◤ █ █ █ █◣ █
▅▅ ████ ◥ ◤ ████ █ █ █◥◣█
█ █ █ █ █ █ ◥█
█ ◥███ █ ◥███ ◥ ◤ █ ◥ 11:11
--
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美國職棒
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