馬刺將如何追逐KD - NBA

How Spurs’ free-agency run at Durant might work

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OKLAHOMA CITY — This just in: The Spurs are interested in making a run at
the hottest free agent on the market this summer. This is not exactly
breaking news. In fact, it sounds like old news.
The Spurs, after all, made a successful pitch to LaMarcus Aldridge last July.
This year’s target would be Kevin Durant, who for now is playing for
Oklahoma City and against the Spurs in the Western Conference semifinals.
馬刺隊對自由球員市場上最火熱的球員感到興趣，聽起來不是一件新鮮事，畢竟他們才剛
成功追求到LaMarcus Aldridge。而今年的目標就是目前仍和馬刺在西區第二輪廝殺的”
雷帝” Kevin Durant。

No doubt discussions have already begun among the Spurs’ brain trust about
the salary cap machinations that must be made to make Durant — or any other
high-profile free agent — a maximum contract offer. Durant didn’t do much
to quell the KD-to-Spurs rumor swirl before the start of the series, when he
unleashed an unprompted ode to Gregg Popovich
(This is the part where we remind everyone all of the below is based on a
hypothetical — IF and only IF Durant decides to leave OKC after his contract
expires this summer).

不難想像馬刺隊的高層相信可以解決薪資上限的問題來得到KD或者是其他高評價的自由球
員，不難想像KD將會拿到一份頂薪，而且在馬刺雷霆第一戰開打前，KD稱讚過Gregg
Popovich後，KD到馬刺這個傳言就不曾停過。而且只要KD沒有說他會留雷霆，一切都是有
可能的。

Now that we’ve cleared that up …
Here are the basics of the math involved for the Spurs: The team is committed
to about $73.6 million in guaranteed salary next year, due seven players
(Aldridge, Kawhi Leonard, Tony Parker, Danny Green, Boris Diaw, Patty Mills
and Kyle Anderson). The salary cap is projected to skyrocket to around $92
million by some estimation, which works in the Spurs’ favor here. A max
contract for a player of Durant’s tenure (nine seasons) could earn a maximum
of $27.6 million next season based on that cap figure.

就讓我們動起來，一起來看看這想法行不行吧。
關於馬刺隊有幾個基本的觀念，這支球隊有大約73.6M的保證約在下一個球季，包含七個
球員(Aldridge, Kawhi Leonard, Tony Parker, Danny Green, Boris Diaw, Patty
Mills and Kyle Anderson).，薪資上限可以預期為92M左右，而KD可以預期會拿到一份起
價27.6M的頂級薪水。

A bit of subtraction reveals the gulf the Spurs must cross. They will need to
find about $9.2 million additional cap space to make a credible offer to
Durant. It can be done, though the task gets more complicated if any of Tim
Duncan ($5.5 million), Manu Ginobili ($2.9 million) or David West ($1.55
million) opt to exercise player options for next season. Jonathon Simmons has
a team option for a little more than $874,000.

有一些可以減少薪資空間的情形是馬刺可以做的，它們需要找到大約9.2M的額外薪資空間
去提供KD薪水，如果Tim Duncan ($5.5 million), Manu Ginobili ($2.9 million) or
David West ($1.55 million)這三人有球員選項的球員都跳出合約，還有Jonathon
Simmons的球隊選項，大約$874,000.是可以省下來的，儘管這有點複雜，但是這是可能發
生的。

Assuming Duncan and Ginobili retire — or opt out and re-sign on veteran
minimum deals that won’t count against the Spurs’ cap space– $9.2 million
seems to be the number the Spurs are working with in this scenario.

假設石佛和鬼切都退休了，或是跳出合約重新簽一張老將底薪，這一些將不會計算到馬刺
的薪資空間，所以9.2M將會是馬刺完成這筆交易的魔術數字。

There are two obvious avenues for getting there, though the Spurs’ resident
geniuses in the front office likely have plotted some that are less obvious.
If the Spurs could find a trade partner to absorb Danny Green’s $10 million
next season (and two more seasons after that), it would appear to do the
trick without gutting the rest of the roster. The Spurs might also explore
dealing the combination of Boris Diaw (due $6.5 million next season) and
Patty Mills (due $3.5 million) to arrive at the same savings.

目前有兩條顯而易見的方法讓馬刺來達到目標，如果馬刺可以找到交易對象來交易”聖堂
射手” Danny Green，目前10M的合約，往後還剩下兩年，這是最少動到名單的方式。或
者馬刺將尋求交易Boris Diaw (due $6.5 million next season) 以及Patty Mills
(due $3.5 million)來達到目標。

It is far too early for Spurs fans to line up to buy No. 35 jerseys in silver
and black. The salary cap gymnastics required for the Spurs to make that
dream scenario happen, however, are less complicated than one might think.

排隊來買35號黑衫這件事還略嫌早了點，但這的確有想像空間，而且比想像中的簡單許多

。


看完了外電，讓我來簡單的幫馬刺隊試算一下，這件事情發生的可能。就用這篇文章的假
設來計算好了。

可以預期的今年的薪資上限會是:大約$90M左右，作者是預測92M。
另外就是Kevin Durant的薪水，依照Salary Cap來設算，將會是起薪大約27.6M左右。
以上兩點是作者的預測，其實也蠻合理的預期。
他覺得馬刺只差9.2M左右的空間，

(A) 交易掉Danny Green(10M)
或者是
(B) Boris Diaw+Patty Mills(10.1M)就行。


但是本人認為作者把事情想得太簡單了，應該不是這樣的。

(1)馬刺明年有首輪選秀權，會占薪資空間大約1M，要放棄，可能會隨著上述交易一起弄
走，換往後的選秀權

(2)最低名單人數為13人，一定要補齊才能開季。

(3)不只Danny Green要走，Patty Mills也要跟著走，才能完成交易。

Player 調整後 帳上
LaMarcus Aldridge $ 20,500,000 $ 20,500,000
Kawhi Leonard $ 17,500,000 $ 17,500,000
Tony Parker $ 14,445,313 $ 14,445,313
Kyle Anderson $ 1,192,080 $ 1,192,080
Tim Duncan $ 5,500,000 PO
Manu Ginobili $ 2,940,630 PO
David West $ 1,552,000 PO
Jonathon Simmons $ 874,636 TO
Danny Green $ 10,000,000 交易
Boris Diaw $ 6,500,000 $ 6,500,000
Patrick Mills $ 3,578,948 交易
第一輪 $ 1,000,000 交易
CAP Hold $ 543,471
CAP Hold $ 543,471
CAP Hold $ 543,471
CAP Hold $ 543,471
CAP Hold $ 543,471
CAP Hold $ 543,471
CAP Hold $ 543,471
-------------------------------------------------
Team Totals $ 63,941,690

薪資上限 $ 92,000,000
-------------------------------------------------
薪資空間 $ 28,058,310

Kevin Durant $ 27,600,000


如果不Patty交易走，那薪資空間將會不夠簽下KD，可以從上面試算中看出來。

差額的28,058,310才有足夠的空間簽下KD，當然了這些CAP Hold如果有老將願意加盟，就
可以換成他們的名字，比方說: Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili, David West。

應該是先把名單填滿，再算薪資空間，然而作者是剛好倒過來算，也就是一般人的算法，
所以Patrick Mills是必定要走了，當然啦，也可以是Boris Diaw，但這就複雜化了。


經過這樣的輪轉後，最後也是最夢想化的陣容將會是
Tony Parker/Kawhi Leonard/ Kevin Durant/ LaMarcus Aldridge/ Tim Duncan

Manu Ginobili/ Kyle Anderson/ David West

剩下的名額就看機緣了，但是巨神兵Boban Marjanovic如果願意接受底薪回馬刺，那當然
也很歡迎的，不然真的只能祝福他了。

當然就算這些老將都退役了，KL,KD,AGG所組成的三巨頭，外掛一個法國跑車，其實也還
算蠻有競爭力的。

容我最後加一句話，操作面是可行的，關鍵真的是KD本人的意願了。

若有錯誤，歡迎指教，謝謝~~

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