關於真實命中率的公式思維 - NBA
By Zora
at 2017-04-18T15:45
at 2017-04-18T15:45
Table of Contents
最近學寫程式,趁機花了點時間去探索一下一些蠻常被使用的進階數據,對於其中有一項
我自己是特別印象深刻—
True shooting percentage
這套公式長這樣:Total points/2*(FGA+0.44*FTA) 最終乘上百分比。
此公式是火箭現任總管莫瑞設計出來的,維基百科上是這麼寫的~說到這,不得不說這莫
瑞實在是非常強的人才:西北大學資工系畢業,MIT商學院的碩士學位,這兩所學校都是
全美前十的名校;目前我查到他的數據建軍模式也廣受好評,由此可見莫瑞的厲害。
不過仔細想想,我發現他這公式似乎遺漏三分與兩分本質上有所差異,應該特別做調整比
較公平;另外就是我很納悶也找不到資料解釋為何罰球那邊是乘以0.44而非0.5?他公式
感覺就是以兩分球為基準在做調整,可是照理說應該是放0.5,不是嗎?求解~
我自己是比照Efficient field goal percentage 的算式:(2pt FG + 1.5*3pt FG)/FGA
,設計出一個新的投籃命中率計算方法(一時也想不到該怎麼命名才好,各位不妨給點建
議):
(2pt FG + 1.5*3pt FG+0.5*FT)/(FGA+0.5*FTA)
我把所有的出手都考慮進去,畢竟兩分、三分、罰球都是所謂的出手,都能帶來分數;而
且我有針對彼此的價值不等做出類似匯率那樣的調整,不過我也是以兩分球當基準在調整
就是了。
#補充一下自己隨手挑幾位球員出來試驗自己的命中率公式的結果:
T.Duncan:53.92%
K.Bryant:53.91%
L.James:57.16%
S.Curry:60.87%
--
我自己是特別印象深刻—
True shooting percentage
這套公式長這樣:Total points/2*(FGA+0.44*FTA) 最終乘上百分比。
此公式是火箭現任總管莫瑞設計出來的,維基百科上是這麼寫的~說到這,不得不說這莫
瑞實在是非常強的人才:西北大學資工系畢業,MIT商學院的碩士學位,這兩所學校都是
全美前十的名校;目前我查到他的數據建軍模式也廣受好評,由此可見莫瑞的厲害。
不過仔細想想,我發現他這公式似乎遺漏三分與兩分本質上有所差異,應該特別做調整比
較公平;另外就是我很納悶也找不到資料解釋為何罰球那邊是乘以0.44而非0.5?他公式
感覺就是以兩分球為基準在做調整,可是照理說應該是放0.5,不是嗎?求解~
我自己是比照Efficient field goal percentage 的算式:(2pt FG + 1.5*3pt FG)/FGA
,設計出一個新的投籃命中率計算方法(一時也想不到該怎麼命名才好,各位不妨給點建
議):
(2pt FG + 1.5*3pt FG+0.5*FT)/(FGA+0.5*FTA)
我把所有的出手都考慮進去,畢竟兩分、三分、罰球都是所謂的出手,都能帶來分數;而
且我有針對彼此的價值不等做出類似匯率那樣的調整,不過我也是以兩分球當基準在調整
就是了。
#補充一下自己隨手挑幾位球員出來試驗自己的命中率公式的結果:
T.Duncan:53.92%
K.Bryant:53.91%
L.James:57.16%
S.Curry:60.87%
--
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