耿伯軒看徐若熙　大家想看三振，但先發要 - 棒球

其實三振多用球數會上升並不是迷思

BP在很久以前就有做過統計

https://tinyurl.com/2dn63ruy

While both Boyd and I are working from large enough datasets that any number
of things turn out to be statistically significant, the degree to which they
improve the accuracy of the estimate is marginal. The three components listed
here–batters faced, strikeouts, walks–are substantially more important than
any other. The next most important predictor of pitch counts, interestingly,
is groundball-to-flyball ratio. Groundball pitchers, all else being equal,
generally throw somewhat fewer pitchers per hitter than flyballers...

Not that this is rocket science–the point is that pitch counts aren’t any
great mystery. The more batters you face, the more pitches you throw; the
heavier you are on strikeouts and (especially) walks, the more pitches you
throw per batter.

影響用球數最大的三大要素是打席數 三振數 保送數

愈多打席/三振/保送 用球數就愈高

而滾球投手一般來說用球數可以比飛球投手精簡

事實上也確實有投手能以鳥打省球的策略攻擊打者

例如Maddux就說過他的策略就是投給打者打鳥打 不強求三振


現在追求三振的風氣會盛行 一部份原因是魔球推動了用K/BB評量投手的風氣

這模型固然簡單易操作 但也造成過去以製造鳥滾為主的投球策略被低估的狀況

要說以前的投給打者打的策略是殺豬公並不公允

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