總冠軍賽首戰贏家 稱霸機率高達八成五 - 棒球
By Brianna
at 2019-10-12T21:41
at 2019-10-12T21:41
Table of Contents
總冠軍賽首戰贏家 稱霸機率高達八成五
2019-10-12 00:08 聯合報 記者婁靖平／台北報導
中職卅年總冠軍賽今天開打，首戰搶開紅盤很重要，歷史紀錄顯示，歷年在第一場比賽獲勝的球隊，最後稱霸機率為百分之八十四點六；對猿隊來說，更具指標意義，隊史過去奪首戰勝利、最後拿總冠軍的機率高達百分之百。
一九九二、九四年兄弟象隊獲得上、下半季冠軍，一九九五年統一獅隊在上、下半季奪冠，依聯盟規章規定，兩隊直接帶走年度總冠軍，並未安排總冠軍賽。
因此到今年之前，總冠軍賽實際進行過廿六次，其中廿二次拿下首戰勝利的球隊，也會在最後封王，例外的四次為一九九一年味全龍隊、九七年時報鷹隊、二○○八年兄弟象隊及一六年中信兄弟隊。
而猿隊過去六度稱霸，都在第一場比賽贏球（二○一七、一八年先保送一勝），首戰的結局，對已經轉賣給樂天的猿隊而言，格外重要。
猿隊在二○一四、一五、一七年和兄弟爭冠，這三次都是先搶一勝，最後捧回總冠軍；兄弟前十一次參與總冠軍賽，只要輸掉首戰，最後都無法奪冠（另有二○○九年）。
首戰吞敗的球隊，最終翻盤機率只有百分十五點四，一九九一年統一獅隊、九七年味全龍隊、二○○八年統一獅隊及一六年義大犀牛隊就曾擺脫「宿命」，逆勢稱霸。
https://udn.com/news/story/7001/4099713
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